Miami (OH) vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsMIA
- Q4 4:29MIADonald Chaney Jr. 20 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)3–38
- Q4 13:43MIAHenry Parrish Jr. 12 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)3–31
- Q3 11:09MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 26 Yd Run (Tyler Van Dyke Pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)3–24
- Q2 0:00MIAAndres Borregales 43 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q2 0:58M-OHGraham Nicholson 48 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 2:33MIAAndres Borregales 32 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 4:02MIAAndres Borregales 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:26MIAColbie Young 44 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrett Gabbert 12/21, 127 YDS
- RushRashad Amos 8 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecGage Larvadain 8 REC, 80 YDS
- PassTyler Van Dyke 17/22, 201 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushHenry Parrish Jr. 9 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecColbie Young 4 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 669 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:26MIA +17%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 44 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q3 11:09MIA +7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Van Dyke pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 4:02MIA +7%
Andres Borregales 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:58M-OH +7%
Graham Nicholson 48 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 2:33MIA +6%
Andres Borregales 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00MIA +6%
Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Miami?
Miami (OH) 3, Miami 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| M-OH | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Total yards | 493 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 243 |
| 51 | Rushing yards | 250 |
| 9 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 3-7 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 20/25 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-49 | Penalties | 8-60 |
| 27:07 | Possession | 32:53 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:40 M-OH punt on 4th & 1 at M-OH 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:29MIADonald Chaney Jr. 20 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)3–38
- Q4 13:43MIAHenry Parrish Jr. 12 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)3–31
- Q3 11:09MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 26 Yd Run (Tyler Van Dyke Pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)3–24
- Q2 0:00MIAAndres Borregales 43 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q2 0:58M-OHGraham Nicholson 48 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 2:33MIAAndres Borregales 32 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 4:02MIAAndres Borregales 34 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:26MIAColbie Young 44 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1377, M-OH Elo 1420 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -0.7 (53% to win) — 15.8 points clear of M-OH's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| M-OH | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.3 (#75) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#28) |
| -9 / -7 | offense / defense | +8 / -5 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 1.18 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →