#16Tyler Van Dyke

QB·Miami·2023

Tyler Van Dyke is a Clutch Passer for Miami. Tyler's 2023 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 343 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Van Dyke's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

219/333 Comp/Att2703 Pass yards19 Pass TD12 INT65.8% Comp %

Rushing

16 Rush yards1 Rush TD24 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat5
Consistency79
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.41 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.97 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Texas A&M (SP+ 16).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMiami (OH)	W38-3	2.8	17/22	201	1	1	60.5	—	—	0.63
2	vsTexas A&M	W48-33	15.6	21/30	374	5	0	94.6	-12	0	0.97
3	vsBethune-Cookman	W48-7	—	19/23	247	2	0	95.4	16	1	0.60
4	@Temple	W41-7	-21.0	17/24	220	3	0	93.8	39	0	0.60
6	vsGeorgia Tech	L20-23	0.3	24/36	288	1	3	46.4	-4	0	0.38
7	@North Carolina	L31-41	7.4	31/48	391	4	2	80.2	-14	0	0.34
9	vsVirginia	W29-26	-10.8	20/30	163	0	2	38.2	—	—	0.24
10	@NC State	L6-20	7.4	21/38	173	0	3	29.8	-15	0	0.01
11	@Florida State	L20-27	19.4	2/7	29	0	1	62.3	—	—	-0.05
12	vsLouisville	L31-38	8.0	24/39	327	1	0	79.1	-3	0	0.26
13	@Boston College	W45-20	-5.9	23/36	290	2	0	74.9	9	0	0.67

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.0%

Passing plays

88.5%

Rushing plays

4.8%

Standard downs

42.6%

Passing downs

57.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.70
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / -0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).