UTEP vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsNU
- Q4 3:53NUJack Olsen 40 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q4 7:07NUA.J. Henning 4 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–35
- Q3 2:51NUJoseph Himon II 85 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Jack Olsen Kick)7–28
- Q3 6:03NUBen Bryant 1 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–21
- Q3 8:19NUThomas Gordon 18 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:46NUJack Lausch 6 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08UTEPZach Fryar 4 Yd pass from Gavin Hardison (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassGavin Hardison 17/25, 192 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushTorrance Burgess Jr. 7 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecJeremiah Ballard 4 REC, 92 YDS
- PassBen Bryant 11/17, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCam Porter 17 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecJoseph Himon II 1 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:19NU +26%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
- Q1 7:46NU +18%
Jack Lausch run for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
- Q1 11:08UTEP +17%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Zach Fryar for 4 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
- Q3 6:03NU +15%
Ben Bryant run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
- Q3 7:30NU +7%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the UTEP 1
- Q3 7:30UTEP +6%
Gavin Hardison pass intercepted
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Northwestern?
UTEP 7, Northwestern 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTEP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTEP | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 391 |
| 215 | Passing yards | 207 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 184 |
| 18 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 10.4 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-42 | Penalties | 4-33 |
| 31:21 | Possession | 28:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:27 UTEP punt on 4th & 2 at NU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:53NUJack Olsen 40 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q4 7:07NUA.J. Henning 4 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–35
- Q3 2:51NUJoseph Himon II 85 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Jack Olsen Kick)7–28
- Q3 6:03NUBen Bryant 1 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–21
- Q3 8:19NUThomas Gordon 18 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:46NUJack Lausch 6 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08UTEPZach Fryar 4 Yd pass from Gavin Hardison (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NU Elo 1296, UTEP Elo 1370 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NU +0.6 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#109) | CORE overall | -3.1 (#78) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →