S.B. Ballard StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ODU 1670
JMU 1905
Projected spread
ODU +5.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
JMU
65% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
ODU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ODU Elo 1670, JMU Elo 1905) plus home-field advantage. That projects ODU +5.3 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelJMU 65% · ODU 35%
Pick: JMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
JMU2025 season · national rank shownODU
454.916th
Total yards / game
454.915th6.521st
Yards / play
6.7Key matchups · Pro
- ODU pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. JMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ODU.
- JMU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge JMU.
- JMU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ODU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge JMU.
FAQ
Who will win James Madison vs. Old Dominion?
Gridpex's model favors James Madison with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for James Madison vs. Old Dominion?
The model projects James Madison by 5.3.
What time is James Madison vs. Old Dominion and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at S.B. Ballard Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this James Madison at 65% to win, projecting James Madison by 5.3.