vs SMU · Wk 3Win prob 44%Model +2.4Schedule & Results
MISSOle MissL38-41✓Wk 2vsVILLVillanovaW59-13✓Wk 3vsSMUSMU+2.444%Wk 4vs
WAKEWake Forest-8.170%Wk 5@
NCSUNC State-1.954%Wk 6vs
FSUFlorida State-5.764%Wk 7@
SYRSyracuse-9.473%Wk 9vs
STANStanford-15.884%Wk 10@
GTGeorgia Tech-6.866%Wk 11@
UNCNorth Carolina-14.684%Wk 12vs
PITTPittsburgh-5.764%Wk 13@
UKKentucky-5.364%ACC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Lincoln KienholzPassing639 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT- Lincoln KienholzRushing111 yds · 3 TD · 5.5 avg
Tre RichardsonReceiving11 rec · 181 yds · 1 TD
Koen EntringerTackles13 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Louisville
All news →Louisville can run on Ole Miss and still lose
Roster · 107 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lincoln Kienholz | QB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Pierre, SD |
| 10 | Briggs Cherry | QB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 11 | Davin Wydner | QB | JR | 6'5" | 225 | Cocoa, FL |
| 17 | Ryan Zimmerman | QB | SO | 6'6" | 225 | Noblesville, IN |
| — | Mason Fields | QB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Edgewood, KY |
| 1 | Isaac Brown | RB | JR | 5'9" | 190 | Homestead, FL |
| 5 | Keyjuan Brown | RB | JR | 5'10" | 215 | Atlanta, GA |
| 22 | Lekhy Thompkins | RB | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Jackson, TN |
| 24 | Marquise Davis | RB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Cleveland, OH |
| 32 | Braxton Jennings | RB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Ashland, KY |
| 0 | Tre Richardson | WR | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Topeka, KS |
| 2 | TreyShun Hurry | WR | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Palmdale, CA |
| 7 | Lawayne McCoy | WR | JR | 6'1" | 180 | Miami, FL |
| 14 | Kris Hughes | WR | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Morganfield, KY |
| 42 | Rhys Dorsey | WR | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Madison, AL |
| 49 | DeVaun Jones | WR | SO | 5'8" | 175 | Louisville, KY |
| 81 | Jakob Dixon | WR | SR | 6'4" | 215 | Louisville, KY |
| 82 | Terrence McWilliams Jr. | WR | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 83 | DJ Williams | WR | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Tampa, FL |
| 84 | Payton Cook | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Akron, OH |
| 86 | Jackson Voth | WR | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Cheney, KS |
| 88 | Montavin Quisenberry | WR | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Danville, KY |
| 89 | Gavin Waddell | WR | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Rolesville, NC |
| — | Elizjah Lewis | WR | SR | 6'2" | 195 | Smyrna, DE |
| — | Marlon Harbin | WR | FR | — | — | — |
| — | Marlon Harbin | WR | FR | — | — | Louisville, KY |
| 15 | Julius Miles | TE | FR | 6'6" | 220 | Freeport, FL |
| 18 | Jaleel Skinner | TE | SR | 6'5" | 230 | Greer, SC |
| 44 | Travis Egan | TE | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Louisville, KY |
| 80 | Brody Foley | TE | SR | 6'6" | 260 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 85 | Justyn Reid | TE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Newnan, GA |
| 87 | Dylan Mesman | TE | SO | 6'5" | 240 | Saline, MI |
| 90 | Hamilton Atkins | TE | SO | 6'4" | 250 | Louisville, KY |
| 53 | Lance Robinson | OL | SR | 6'4" | 295 | Camilla, GA |
| 55 | Jimmy Williams III | OL | SO | 6'4" | 300 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| 56 | Eryx Daugherty | OL | JR | 6'4" | 310 | Bloomfield Hills, MI |
| 57 | Naeer Jackson | OL | SR | 6'6" | 310 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 58 | Evan Wibberley | OL | SR | 6'5" | 305 | Fort Mitchell, KY |
| 61 | Gradey Anthony | OL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Goshen, KY |
| 65 | Ellis McAdoo | OL | SO | 6'6" | 295 | Oakdale, CT |
| 66 | Johnnie Brown III | OL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Lilburn, GA |
| 67 | James Glover-Tyson | OL | JR | 6'6" | 325 | Louisville, KY |
| 70 | Anwar O'Neal | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 71 | Cason Henry | OL | SR | 6'6" | 300 | Marietta, GA |
| 72 | Sam Secrest | OL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Greenwood, IN |
| 73 | Ben Corhei | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Valdosta, GA |
| 74 | Jarvis Strickland | OL | FR | 6'6" | 295 | Paducah, KY |
| 75 | Cameron Gorin | OL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Fishers, IN |
| 76 | Tyler Folmar | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | Cantonment, FL |
| 78 | Charlie Edgeworth | OL | FR | 6'7" | 320 | Chattanooga, TN |
| — | Max Merz | OL | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Fort Thomas, KY |
| — | Bryten Close | OT | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Campbellsville, KY |
| 2 | Demeco Kennedy | DL | JR | 6'3" | 305 | Lexington, KY |
| 3 | Tyler Thompson | DL | JR | 6'5" | 245 | Cary, NC |
| 17 | AJ Green | DL | JR | 6'6" | 250 | Ellenwood, GA |
| 19 | Micah Carter | DL | JR | 6'6" | 265 | Louisville, KY |
| 40 | Eric Hazzard | DL | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Franklin, TN |
| 50 | Clev Lubin | DL | SR | 6'3" | 260 | Suffern, NY |
| 59 | Reece Sellers | DL | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Cheval, FL |
| 62 | Chris Jones Jr. | DL | FR | 6'1" | 305 | Louisville, KY |
| 90 | Daylen Russell | DL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Miami, FL |
| 93 | Bailey Abercrombie | DL | FR | 6'3" | 285 | Birmingham, AL |
| 94 | Dillon Smith | DL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Union, KY |
| 95 | Joshua Donald | DL | JR | 6'2" | 310 | Durham, NC |
| 96 | Tommy Ziesmer | DL | JR | 6'2" | 300 | Danville, KY |
| 97 | Maurice Davis | DL | SO | 6'4" | 250 | Albany, GA |
| 98 | Sam Dawson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Crestwood, KY |
| 99 | Jerod Smith II | DL | JR | 6'4" | 270 | Corbin, KY |
| — | Keon Webb | DL | SO | 6'5" | 300 | Tampa, FL |
| 6 | Stanquan Clark | LB | SR | 6'3" | 240 | Miami, FL |
| 11 | T.J. Capers | LB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Miami, FL |
| 23 | Benjamin Perry | LB | SR | 6'3" | 215 | Chicago, IL |
| 30 | Taj Powell | LB | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Springfield, OH |
| 34 | Brady Ballart | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Aurora, IN |
| 36 | Jacob Smith | LB | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Corbin, KY |
| 38 | Cameron White | LB | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Tampa, FL |
| 41 | Caleb Matelau | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Bradenton, FL |
| 43 | Trent Carter | LB | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 12 | DJ Waller Jr. | CB | JR | 6'3" | 210 | Youngstown, OH |
| 4 | Jabari Mack | DB | SR | 6'1" | 185 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 4 | T.J. Banks | DB | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 5 | Koen Entringer | DB | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Walled Lake, MI |
| 9 | Antonio Watts | DB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Columbus, GA |
| 10 | Kaleb Beasley | DB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Nashville, TN |
| 13 | Tayon Holloway | DB | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 20 | Antonio Harris | DB | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Louisville, KY |
| 21 | Jaydin Broadnax | DB | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Boca Raton, FL |
| 25 | Brycen Scott | DB | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Florence, SC |
| 27 | Myles Norwood | DB | SR | 6'2" | 190 | St. Louis, MO |
| 28 | Santana Wilson | DB | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 29 | Blake Ruffin | DB | SR | 6'3" | 205 | Louisville, KY |
| 31 | Micah Rice | DB | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Goshen, KY |
| 33 | Kris Brunson | DB | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Snellville, GA |
| 37 | Anderson Mitchell | DB | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Richmond, KY |
| 47 | Garion McPherson | DB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Danville, KY |
| — | Jordan Gervais | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | San Antonio, TX |
| 26 | Jordan Vann | S | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Middletown, OH |
| 35 | Carson Hilbert | PK | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Louisville, KY |
| 98 | Nick Keller | PK | SR | 6'1" | 200 | — |
| — | Garth White | PK | SR | 6'3" | 206 | Westlake Village, CA |
| — | Bode Shoaps | PK | FR | 5'10" | 160 | Granville, OH |
| 48 | Jacob Baker | P | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Corbin, KY |
| 90 | Adam Winkenhofer | P | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Bardstown, KY |
| 91 | Niall Hayes | P | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 39 | Hayden Travelstead | LS | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Acworth, GA |
| 47 | Ryan Manis | LS | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Wilmington, NC |
| — | Drew Kegebein | LS | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Wheaton, IL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Louisville throws it: Jeff Brohm's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at closing out passing downs. The way in is 116th at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisville has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#15projected
- Defensethrowing it#16projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#116projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.98#75
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.35 / 1.85
- Power / stuff (off)
- 71.4% / 19.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 14.8%#88
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 6.3% / 8.5%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.38#17 | 0.49#28 | 0.71#52 |
| Defense | 0.24#125 | 0.27#100 | 0.16#33 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3972nd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.3018th
- Offense success rate46%47th
- Defense success rate allowed46%21st
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs54%66th
- Offense success — passing downs27%30th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs57%7th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs18%78th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.586th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.334th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.391st
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.586th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.315th
- Defense line yards allowed3.129th
- Offense highlight yards2.688th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.1977th
- Offense power success0.8063rd
- Defense power success allowed0.6462nd
- Offense stuff rate0.2516th
- Defense stuff rate0.1427th
Third down
- Third down conversion44%49th
- Third down distance faced7.332nd
- Third down conversion allowed40%40th
- Third down distance forced5.915th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0827th
- Net success rate — second half0.0343rd
Drives
- Points per drive2.868th
- Points per drive allowed3.226th
- Average starting field position3168th
- Opponent starting field position3219th
- Available yards gained45%37th
- Available yards allowed57%33rd
- Scoring opportunities per drive77%41st
- Scoring opportunities allowed85%37th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.775th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.726th
- Three-and-out rate31%37th
- Three-and-outs forced23%48th
Roster
- Returning usage27%27th
- Returning EPA92.344th
- Team talent composite74074th
- Recruiting class rank48.066th
- Recruiting class points21266th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.404 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 13 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 47.8%
- Expected, given the spots
- 56.9%
- Over expected
- -9.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- -12
- Fourth down vs the model
- -67
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Louisville is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Louisville in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 69% | 9.4 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 71% | 9.7 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 8.8 | -2.8 |
| 2020 | 4-7 | 3-7 | 36% | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 9.1 | -1.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 7.6-4.6. Top-four bye in 0.9%. Wins the ACC in 7.0%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 99%. Running the table still leaves it to the committee.
down 6.7 points since preseason — lost 38-41 to Ole Miss against an expected margin of −5, so +2.4 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 52% where the average ACC team is 44%.
- The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.
Louisville’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk12vs Pittsburgh13.9
- wk3vs SMU13.9
- wk10at Georgia Tech11.7
- wk11at North Carolina11.6
- wk5at NC State11.2
- wk6vs Florida State10.7
Who to root for
Games Louisville is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Wake Forest over Miami3.6
- wk7Florida State over Miami3.2
- wk9North Carolina over Miami3.0
- wk11Duke over Miami2.8
- wk5Clemson over Miami2.8
- wk12Virginia Tech over Miami2.6
ACC
0-0 in league play, projected 6.0-3.05 of 17 by title oddsThe ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk3SMU at Louisville10.6
- wk12Pittsburgh at Louisville10.1
- wk10Louisville at Georgia Tech8.4
- wk5Louisville at NC State8.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →
If not the playoff, then
Louisville is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Sun Bowl10%
- Holiday Bowl9.9%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl9.3%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl8.8%
- Pinstripe Bowl8.0%
- Gator Bowl7.3%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Louisville a player since 2010 — 21 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Louisville's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.