L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LOU 1749
STAN 1335
Projected spread
LOU -23.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
LOU
96% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
LOU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (LOU Elo 1749, STAN Elo 1335) plus home-field advantage. That projects LOU -23.2 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSTAN 4% · LOU 96%
Pick: LOU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
STAN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedLOU
Offense
0.06
PPA / play
0.1536%
Success rate
45%1.20
Key matchups · Pro
- LOU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. STAN rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge LOU.
- LOU pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. STAN pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge STAN.
- STAN pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. LOU pass defense (0.06 allowed) — edge STAN.
FAQ
Who will win Stanford vs. Louisville?
Gridpex's model favors Louisville with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Stanford vs. Louisville?
The model projects Louisville by 23.2.
What time is Stanford vs. Louisville and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Louisville at 96% to win, projecting Louisville by 23.2.