@ Clemson · Wk 3Win prob 9%Model +20.4Schedule & Results
ACC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Billy EdwardsPassing476 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Benjamin HallRushing85 yds · 0 TD · 5.7 avg
Jelani ThurmanReceiving8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD
Derek McdonaldTackles14 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on North Carolina
All news →Xavier Lewis's 4.5 tackles for loss decided a five-point game
Jaden Craig's First FBS Snap Comes in Dublin, Against Belichick
Roster · 110 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Travis Burgess | QB | FR | 6'4" | 193 | Grayson, GA |
| 8 | Miles O'Neill | QB | SO | 6'5" | 220 | Marblehead, MA |
| 9 | Billy Edwards Jr. | QB | SR | 6'3" | 228 | Springfield, VA |
| 10 | Au'Tori Newkirk | QB | FR | 6'3" | 200 | Norfolk, VA |
| 15 | DJ Mazzone | QB | SO | 6'0" | 175 | Atlanta, GA |
| 18 | Andres Miyares Jr. | QB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Miami, FL |
| 0 | Demon June | RB | SO | 5'11" | 215 | Jacksonville, NC |
| 5 | Kaleb Jackson | RB | JR | 6'0" | 234 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 7 | Benjamin Hall | RB | JR | 5'11" | 235 | Acworth, GA |
| 20 | Crew Davis | RB | FR | 5'11" | 199 | Fairfield, CT |
| 23 | Charleston French | RB | JR | 5'9" | 205 | Amory, MS |
| 26 | JoJo Troupe | RB | FR | 5'8" | 200 | Tampa, FL |
| 27 | Jaylen McGill | RB | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Spartanburg, SC |
| 47 | Henry Martello | FB | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Culver, IN |
| 1 | Jordan Shipp | WR | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Charlotte, NC |
| 2 | Trech Kekahuna | WR | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Honolulu, HI |
| 4 | Mason Humphrey | WR | SR | 6'4" | 215 | Loganville, GA |
| 6 | Dayton Sneed | WR | JR | 6'0" | 196 | Hermitage, TN |
| 11 | Nathan Leacock | WR | JR | 6'3" | 217 | Rolesville, NC |
| 14 | C.J. Sadler | WR | FR | 5'9" | 183 | Detroit, MI |
| 16 | Zamaurious Robertson | WR | FR | 6'0" | 167 | Dillon, SC |
| 17 | Nyqir Helton | WR | FR | 5'11" | 182 | Sicklerville, NJ |
| 24 | Jaden Jefferson | WR | FR | 5'9" | 165 | Oakland, CA |
| 81 | Kymistrii Young | WR | FR | 6'2" | 192 | Parrish, FL |
| 82 | Keeyun Chapman | WR | FR | 6'3" | 209 | Jackson, AL |
| 83 | Carnell Warren | WR | FR | 6'3" | 208 | Bluffton, SC |
| 86 | Madrid Tucker | WR | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Lehigh Acres, FL |
| 19 | Jaxxon Warren | TE | SO | 6'8" | 245 | Flower Mound, TX |
| 45 | Jelani Thurman | TE | JR | 6'6" | 250 | Fairburn, GA |
| 80 | Jordan Washington | TE | SO | 6'4" | 264 | Houston, TX |
| 84 | Shamar Easter | TE | JR | 6'5" | 215 | Ashdown, AR |
| 85 | Dream Rashad | TE | FR | 6'5" | 222 | Buford, GA |
| 87 | Carson Sneed | TE | FR | 6'6" | 242 | Nashville, TN |
| 88 | Deems May | TE | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Charlotte, NC |
| 51 | Peter Pesansky | OL | SO | 6'2" | 290 | Tampa, FL |
| 52 | Rowan Byrne | OL | FR | 6'5" | 296 | Bronxville, NY |
| 54 | Jonah Rodriguez | OL | JR | 6'4" | 294 | San Diego, CA |
| 55 | Brandon Homady | OL | FR | 6'3" | 298 | Cleveland, OH |
| 56 | Christo Kelly | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Wilmette, IL |
| 57 | Will Conroy | OL | FR | 6'2" | 290 | Valley View, OH |
| 60 | Cristian Alvarez | OL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Woodcliff Lake, NJ |
| 65 | Zion Smith | OL | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Townsend, DE |
| 66 | Jordan Hall | OL | JR | 6'8" | 336 | Columbus, OH |
| 67 | Dujuan Davis | OL | FR | 6'9" | 380 | Clearwater, FL |
| 68 | Aidan Banfield | OL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | Buford, GA |
| 70 | Byron Nelson | OL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Katy, TX |
| 71 | Jacqawn McRoy | OL | SO | 6'8" | 335 | Bessemer, AL |
| 72 | Eidan Buchanan | OL | SO | 6'9" | 330 | Montgomery Village, MD |
| 73 | J.B. Shabazz | OL | FR | 6'5" | 333 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 74 | Nick Fiumara | OL | FR | 6'4" | 297 | Foxborough, MA |
| 75 | Andrew Threatt | OL | SR | 6'3" | 315 | Chesterfield, SC |
| 77 | Trey Blue | OL | FR | 6'6" | 330 | Cary, NC |
| 79 | Anthony Hall | OL | FR | 6'3" | 356 | Brookline, MA |
| 0 | Isaiah Johnson | DL | SR | 6'2" | 320 | Camden, NJ |
| 5 | Donovan Hoilette Jr. | DL | SR | 6'4" | 245 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 9 | Melkart Abou Jaoude | DL | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Newton, NJ |
| 11 | Jaylen Harvey | DL | SO | 6'2" | 246 | Gaithersburg, MD |
| 14 | Tarvorise Brown | DL | JR | 6'7" | 296 | Miami, FL |
| 25 | Joseph Mupoyi | DL | JR | 6'5" | 261 | Kinshasa |
| 29 | Zavion Griffin-Haynes | DL | FR | 6'5" | 235 | Rolesville, NC |
| 56 | Viliami Moala | DL | FR | 6'2" | 357 | West Valley City, UT |
| 88 | Vodney Cleveland | DL | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Montgomery, AL |
| 89 | Emmanuel Nwaiwu | DL | FR | 6'4" | 250 | Chateauguay, PQ |
| 90 | Xavier Lewis | DL | SO | 6'0" | 250 | Raleigh, NC |
| 91 | Leroy Jackson | DL | SO | 6'1" | 290 | Leesburg, GA |
| 92 | Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu | DL | FR | 6'3" | 271 | Hauula, HI |
| 93 | Trashawn Ruffin | DL | FR | 6'3" | 350 | Calypso, NC |
| 94 | David Jackson III | DL | FR | 6'0" | 208 | Washington, DC |
| 96 | Nicco Maggio | DL | FR | 6'1" | 290 | Buford, GA |
| 97 | Trey Giddens | DL | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 8 | Jonathan Agumadu | LB | SO | 6'2" | 220 | Dallas, TX |
| 10 | Peyton Seelmann | LB | JR | 6'1" | 225 | Mechanicsville, VA |
| 12 | Calvin Thomas | LB | FR | 6'3" | 207 | Houston, TX |
| 15 | Derek McDonald | LB | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Atlanta, GA |
| 26 | DQ Forkpa | LB | FR | 6'1" | 226 | Plymouth, MN |
| 33 | Tyler Houser | LB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Sparta, NJ |
| 35 | Ashton Blatt | LB | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 36 | Jayden Griffin-Haynes | LB | FR | 6'2" | 198 | Rolesville, NC |
| 42 | Jordan Avinger | LB | FR | 6'1" | 221 | Orangeburg, SC |
| 43 | Lantz Pascal | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 44 | Jake Bauer | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | West Chester, PA |
| 54 | Timir Hickman-Collins | LB | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Fort Mill, SC |
| 95 | Daniel Anderson | LB | SO | 6'1" | 245 | Memphis, TN |
| 1 | Greg Smith | DB | SO | 6'4" | 215 | Riverview, FL |
| 2 | Kaleb Cost | DB | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Atlanta, GA |
| 3 | Ade Willie | DB | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Baltimore, MD |
| 4 | Jalon Thompson | DB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Orlando, FL |
| 6 | Tre Miller | DB | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Birmingham, AL |
| 7 | Peyton Waters | DB | SO | 6'1" | 185 | Northridge, CA |
| 16 | Coleman Bryson | DB | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Waynesville, NC |
| 17 | Jakob Weatherspoon | DB | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Avon, OH |
| 18 | Jaiden Patterson | DB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Dacula, GA |
| 19 | Reggie Love II | DB | JR | 5'8" | 175 | Raleigh, NC |
| 20 | Xavier Jackson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 188 | Willingboro, NJ |
| 21 | Kenton Dopson III | DB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Miami, FL |
| 23 | Khristian Dunbar-Hawkins | DB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Inland Empire, CA |
| 24 | Javion Butts | DB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Gray, GA |
| 27 | Graham Reintjes | DB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Austin, TX |
| 28 | Jamarrion Gordon | DB | FR | 5'11" | 202 | Jackson, AL |
| 30 | Jaziel Hart | DB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Roanoke, VA |
| 31 | Julian Peterson | DB | FR | 6'2" | 183 | Sicklerville, NJ |
| 32 | Jermaine Anderson | DB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 34 | David Davis | DB | FR | 6'0" | 191 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 38 | Julian Burns | DB | FR | 6'3" | 194 | Monroe, LA |
| 92 | Aeron Burrell | PK | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Bossier City, LA |
| 97 | David Green | PK | FR | 5'10" | 183 | High Point, NC |
| 91 | Adam Mccann-Gibbs | P | FR | 6'0" | 208 | Donegal |
| 93 | Jacob Horvath | P | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 40 | Roman Wazni | LS | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Tampa, FL |
| 48 | Gannon Burt | LS | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Fort Mill, SC |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
North Carolina is in year 2 under Bill Belichick. The way in is 126th at running it, and they are 113th on first and second down.
North Carolina has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#126projected
- Offensefirst and second down#113projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#110projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 4.09#7
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.65 / 0.44
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 9.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.7%#110
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.4% / 4.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.15#50 | 0.45#26 | 0.57#62 |
| Defense | -0.15#38 | 0.08#61 | 0.27#56 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3069th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0377th
- Offense success rate51%81st
- Defense success rate allowed38%49th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs58%84th
- Offense success — passing downs37%72nd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs48%24th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs19%85th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.112th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.9896th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8511th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.940th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.891st
- Defense line yards allowed2.842nd
- Offense highlight yards0.5419th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5658th
- Offense power success0.5017th
- Defense power success allowed0.8326th
- Offense stuff rate0.1376th
- Defense stuff rate0.139th
Third down
- Third down conversion40%41st
- Third down distance faced7.428th
- Third down conversion allowed47%15th
- Third down distance forced6.730th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0445th
- Net success rate — second half0.1884th
Drives
- Points per drive1.434th
- Points per drive allowed0.8988th
- Average starting field position2949th
- Opponent starting field position3419th
- Available yards gained47%46th
- Available yards allowed50%51st
- Scoring opportunities per drive67%21st
- Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.232nd
- Points allowed per opportunity1.488th
- Three-and-out rate22%57th
- Three-and-outs forced0%7th
Roster
- Returning usage32%40th
- Returning EPA46.927th
- Team talent composite76880th
- Recruiting class rank19.087th
- Recruiting class points24887th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.180 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 9 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 53.7%
- Expected, given the spots
- 42.4%
- Over expected
- +11.3
- Fourth down vs peers
- +10
- Fourth down vs the model
- -25
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. North Carolina is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to North Carolina in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.6 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 64% | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 4-6 | 46% | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 8-4 | 7-3 | 67% | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 2018 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 18% | 3.6 | -1.6 |
| 2017 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 4.1 | -1.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.3-5.7. Top-four bye in 0.7%. Wins the ACC in 1.1%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
up 1.1 points since preseason — won 15-10 over TCU against an expected margin of −6, so +10.9 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 78% where the average ACC team is 42%.
- The ACC takes 1.57 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.8%.
North Carolina’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk5vs Notre Dame17.6
- wk9vs Miami14.3
- wk12at Virginia9.8
- wk6at Pittsburgh8.8
- wk7at Duke7.3
- wk11vs Louisville7.0
Who to root for
Games North Carolina is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk12SMU over Notre Dame1.0
- wk6Western Michigan over Kent State0.8
- wk3Syracuse over Pittsburgh0.8
- wk3Wake Forest over Miami0.8
- wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech0.8
- wk11UL Monroe over Louisiana0.8
ACC
0-0 in league play, projected 3.4-4.69 of 17 by title oddsThe ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Miami at North Carolina5.4
- wk12North Carolina at Virginia3.3
- wk6North Carolina at Pittsburgh2.7
- wk5Notre Dame at North Carolina2.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →
If not the playoff, then
North Carolina is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 0.6% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Pinstripe Bowl8.2%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl7.5%
- Military Bowl7.5%
- Sun Bowl6.9%
- Holiday Bowl6.2%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl5.4%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 11 have sent North Carolina a player since 2010 — 23 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of North Carolina's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.