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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Kenan Stadium
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNC 1320
ND 2243
Projected spread
UNC +31.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
99% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
1%
UNC (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UNC Elo 1320, ND Elo 2243) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNC +31.3 (1% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelND 99% · UNC 1%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ND2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUNC
Offense
0.36
PPA / play
0.0749%
Success rate
38%1.44
Explosiveness
1.164.79
Pts / opportunity
3.3362%
Power success
64%Defense
0.04
PPA allowed / play
0.1836%
Success rate allowed
41%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.2518%
Havoc rate
15%18%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. UNC pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge ND.
- UNC pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge UNC.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. UNC rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. North Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina?
The model projects Notre Dame by 31.3.
What time is Notre Dame vs. North Carolina and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kenan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 99% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 31.3.