East Tennessee State vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EASTTeam statsUNC
- Q4 3:57EASTEwan Johnson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q3 3:30UNCDemon June 1 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–35
- Q3 13:10UNCDemon June 6 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–28
- Q2 1:20UNCDemon June 9 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–21
- Q2 12:13UNCBenjamin Hall 26 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:48UNCJelani Thurman 24 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = EAST ahead, below = UNC ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassMason Mims 23/31, 178 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTJ Peyton 13 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecCharlie Browder 3 REC, 50 YDS
- PassBilly Edwards Jr. 15/20, 244 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBenjamin Hall 4 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecJelani Thurman 4 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of East Tennessee State vs. North Carolina?
East Tennessee State 3, North Carolina 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNC) was correct.
| EAST | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 427 |
| 178 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 161 |
| 16 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/32 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-67 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 33:44 | Possession | 26:16 |
- Q4 3:57EASTEwan Johnson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–35
- Q3 3:30UNCDemon June 1 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–35
- Q3 13:10UNCDemon June 6 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–28
- Q2 1:20UNCDemon June 9 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–21
- Q2 12:13UNCBenjamin Hall 26 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:48UNCJelani Thurman 24 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Aeron Burrell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -28.1 (95% to win) — 7.4 points clear of EAST's market line of -35.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →