North Carolina vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsTCU
- Q3 10:04UNCAeron Burrell 28 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q2 1:49UNCTeam Safety 12–10
- Q1 1:04UNCJaylen McGill 9 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)10–10
- Q1 4:00TCUJon Denman 2 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)3–10
- Q1 7:20TCUKyle Lemmermann 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:07UNCAeron Burrell 20 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
TCU held better field position all night and did not score after the first quarter; North Carolina's front, and one throw on second-and-12, made the difference.
Kyle Lemmermann's 31-yard field goal and Jon Denman's two-yard touchdown run were TCU's entire night, and both were finished by 4:00 of the first quarter. Over the next forty-nine minutes the number never moved. TCU reached the North Carolina 35 or closer four more times, got to the 10-yard line or closer on three of those, and came away with nothing every time. North Carolina won 15-10 on neutral ground at Aviva Stadium without scoring a touchdown after the first quarter either.
- PassBilly Edwards Jr. 16/28, 232 YDS
- RushBenjamin Hall 11 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecJelani Thurman 4 REC, 94 YDS
- PassJaden Craig 20/32, 175 YDS
- RushJeremy Payne 25 CAR, 142 YDS
- RecEd Small 9 REC, 65 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. TCU?
North Carolina 15, TCU 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Total yards | 281 |
| 232 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 90 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 20/32 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 11-90 |
| 26:58 | Possession | 33:02 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 10:04UNCAeron Burrell 28 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q2 1:49UNCTeam Safety 12–10
- Q1 1:04UNCJaylen McGill 9 Yd Run (Aeron Burrell Kick)10–10
- Q1 4:00TCUJon Denman 2 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)3–10
- Q1 7:20TCUKyle Lemmermann 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:07UNCAeron Burrell 20 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1613, UNC Elo 1380 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TCU -9.3 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 10 in 2026 by biggest miss · #5 of 10 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →| UNC | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 (#50) | CORE overall | -0.1 (#71) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | -3 / -3 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 0.89 |
| 0.89 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Xavier Lewis's 4.5 tackles for loss decided a five-point game
TCU held better field position all night and did not score after the first quarter; North Carolina's front, and one throw on second-and-12, made the difference.
Nobody kept Xavier Lewis out of the backfield
Lewis finished with two sacks, four and a half tackles for loss and six tackles, and the negative plays he made stripped roughly ten points of expected value off TCU's board — more than TCU scored all night. The clearest of them came at 2:56 of the third quarter, fourth-and-1 at the North Carolina 6, when Lewis and Isaiah Johnson met Jeremy Payne a yard behind the line. Turnover on downs, and the most damaging single snap either offense ran.
The second stand was quieter and cost about as much. At 4:05 of the fourth, fourth-and-2 from the North Carolina 10, Jaden Craig threw short left to Jeremy Scott and the ball hit the ground. Scott's line reads one catch for three yards on four targets; the handful of plays he was involved in swung nearly six points of expected value against TCU, the worst mark by any player on the field, on either side.
Jeremy Payne's 142 yards bought TCU three points
Payne did exactly what TCU needed from him. He carried 25 times for 142 yards and caught five passes for 27 more, and his 48-yard run at 8:42 of the first quarter — right side, out of bounds at the North Carolina 17 — set up Lemmermann's field goal at 7:20. That was the return: three points. Payne never reached the end zone, and after Denman's two-yarder at 4:00, neither did anybody else in purple.
TCU also started its drives eight yards closer to the end zone than North Carolina did, 64.8 yards out against 73.3, and converted that head start into 23.6 yards per possession — ten fewer than the Tar Heels managed from worse spots. Craig threw for 175 yards on 32 attempts, 5.5 an attempt, and took four carries for minus-22. Ed Small caught nine of eleven targets for 65 yards, which is a great many completions and not much field.
Billy Edwards's best throw came on second-and-12
Edwards went 2-for-8 on third down and lost four yards on seven carries, and he still made the throw that put this away. Second-and-12 at 2:20 of the fourth, North Carolina backed up near its own 21: Edwards hit Jelani Thurman on a short right route and Thurman carried it to the 46 for 25 yards, worth close to three points of expected value by itself. It was the biggest play North Carolina ran all game.
Thurman's four catches went for 94 yards, better than 23 a reception. Jordan Shipp added 71 on five, and Trech Kekahuna caught all three balls thrown his way for 38. That is 203 of Edwards's 232 passing yards from three targets, against a TCU secondary where Gil Jackson Jr. broke up two passes, Vernon Glover Jr. broke up another, and nobody came away with an interception.
North Carolina lost two fumbles and won anyway
Max Carroll punched the ball loose from Kekahuna at the TCU 45 with 46 seconds left in the half, a swing of nearly three points, and recovered it himself. Kaden McFadden did the same to Benjamin Hall at the North Carolina 23 in the third. Hall's 11 carries for 36 yards and that fumble made him the only Tar Heel whose day cost his own offense expected points. Ansel Din-Mbuh sacked Edwards twice; John Schobel's sack at 13:31 of the fourth shoved North Carolina from the TCU 20 back to the 26 and killed that drive.
We had TCU by seven and gave them a 68 percent chance, and that call leaned almost entirely on last season's body of work, worth nearly nine points of the number on its own. It was the wrong side. The roster-talent and quarterback inputs both nudged toward North Carolina and were nowhere near loud enough to overcome the rest.
Jaylen McGill touched it five times for 33 yards and scored on a 9-yard run at 1:04 of the first quarter, which in a game that produced two touchdowns total was a full third of the winning side's points. Aeron Burrell's two field goals and the safety covered the rest. TCU leaves with a 142-yard back, two forced fumbles, better field position on every drive, and no points scored after Jon Denman's at 4:00 of the first.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →