Kenan StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNC 1320
MIA 2014
Projected spread
UNC +25.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
MIA
97% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
3%
UNC (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UNC Elo 1320, MIA Elo 2014) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNC +25.1 (3% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMIA 97% · UNC 3%
Pick: MIA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MIA2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUNC
Offense
0.22
PPA / play
0.0746%
Success rate
38%1.16
Key matchups · Pro
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. UNC pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge MIA.
- UNC pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge UNC.
- MIA rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UNC rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge UNC.
FAQ
Who will win Miami vs. North Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors Miami with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami vs. North Carolina?
The model projects Miami by 25.1.
What time is Miami vs. North Carolina and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kenan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Miami at 97% to win, projecting Miami by 25.1.