Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MISS Elo 2009, LOU Elo 1749) on a neutral field. That projects MISS -11.1 (79% to win) — 4.6 points of value on MISS versus the market line of -6.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: MISS · 9 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. LOU pass defense (0.06 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. LOU rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge MISS.
- LOU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge LOU.
FAQ
Who will win Louisville vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisville vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 11.1.
What time is Louisville vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Sun, Sep 6, 11:30 PM on ABC, at Nissan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Ole Miss at 79% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 11.1. That's 9 points off the market line — there may be value. Where's the disagreement?