Air Force vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsSHSU
- Q4 5:14AFOwen Burk 5 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)13–3
- Q4 13:41AFMatthew Dapore 42 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q3 6:03SHSUColby Sessums 45 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 8:36AFMatthew Dapore 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SHSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.7
- PassZac Larrier 1/3, 14 YDS
- RushOwen Burk 18 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJohn Lee Eldridge III 1 REC, 14 YDS
- PassKeegan Shoemaker 8/14, 44 YDS
- RushZach Hrbacek 10 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecIfe Adeyi 3 REC, 20 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,330 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:14AF +20%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
- Q3 6:03SHSU +13%
Colby Sessums 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 13:41AF +13%
Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 11:34AF +12%
Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the AFA 47
- Q4 11:34SHSU +9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 40
- Q2 8:36AF +7%
Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Sam Houston?
Air Force 13, Sam Houston 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
| AF | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 258 | Total yards | 80 |
| 14 | Passing yards | 44 |
| 244 | Rushing yards | 36 |
| 18 | First downs | 6 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 1/3 | Comp/Att | 8/14 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 3.1 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 1.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 36:38 | Possession | 23:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:41 AF field goal on 4th & 2 at SHSU 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:14AFOwen Burk 5 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)13–3
- Q4 13:41AFMatthew Dapore 42 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q3 6:03SHSUColby Sessums 45 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 8:36AFMatthew Dapore 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1473, AF Elo 1678 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +8.2 (30% to win) — 4.8 points clear of SHSU's market line of +13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AF | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.4 (#39) | CORE overall | -12.3 (#102) |
| +5 / -3 | offense / defense | -12 / +1 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 1.76 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -31 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →