Colorado State vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 6:34MTSUElijah Metcalf 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin PAT blocked)31–23
- Q4 11:19CSUMohamed Kamara 5 Yd Fumble Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)31–17
- Q4 11:34CSUTory Horton 7 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)24–17
- Q3 8:20CSUTory Horton 7 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:16MTSUNicholas Vattiato 4 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)10–17
- Q1 0:58MTSUZeke Rankin 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 5:03CSUDallin Holker 24 Yd pass from Giles Pooler (Jordan Noyes Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:09MTSUHolden Willis 49 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:26CSUJordan Noyes 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 30/43, 321 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAvery Morrow 6 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecDallin Holker 11 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNicholas Vattiato 30/41, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNicholas Vattiato 15 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHolden Willis 9 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,330 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:34CSU +35%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
- Q3 8:20CSU +24%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
- Q4 11:19CSU +20%
Mohamed Kamara 5 Yd Fumble Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)
- Q2 0:16MTSU +20%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q1 5:03CSU +18%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Dallin Holker for 24 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
- Q1 7:09MTSU +17%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 49 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Colorado State 31, Middle Tennessee 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MTSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CSU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 430 |
| 345 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 33 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 18 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 31/44 | Comp/Att | 30/41 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-90 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 26:03 | Possession | 33:57 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:03 CSU go for it on 4th & 8 at MTSU 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.64 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:34MTSUElijah Metcalf 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin PAT blocked)31–23
- Q4 11:19CSUMohamed Kamara 5 Yd Fumble Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)31–17
- Q4 11:34CSUTory Horton 7 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)24–17
- Q3 8:20CSUTory Horton 7 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:16MTSUNicholas Vattiato 4 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)10–17
- Q1 0:58MTSUZeke Rankin 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 5:03CSUDallin Holker 24 Yd pass from Giles Pooler (Jordan Noyes Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:09MTSUHolden Willis 49 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Zeke Rankin Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:26CSUJordan Noyes 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1341, CSU Elo 1278 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -4.9 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CSU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#114) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#91) |
| -10 / +6 | offense / defense | -6 / +0 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 2.28 | allowed / drive | 2.17 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →