#25Avery Morrow

RB·Colorado State·2024

Avery Morrow is a Featured Back for Colorado State. Avery's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 194 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Avery Morrow's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

1006 Rush yards9 Rush TD184 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions102 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume72
Explosiveness50
Consistency39
Receiving30

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency39th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.50 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.98 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Colorado (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsNorthern Colorado	W38-17	—	5	27	5.4	1	—	—	—	0.46
3	vsColorado	L9-28	8.1	3	67	22.3	0	—	—	—	1.98
4	vsUTEP	W27-17	-22.7	21	156	7.4	2	2	20	0	0.52
6	@Oregon State	L31-39	-6.7	25	140	5.6	1	3	20	0	0.22
7	vsSan José State	W31-24	-5.5	22	100	4.5	2	2	10	0	0.03
8	@Air Force	W21-13	-11.7	20	132	6.6	0	1	2	0	-0.08
9	vsNew Mexico	W17-6	-14.8	16	89	5.6	0	1	-2	0	-0.01
10	@Nevada	W38-21	-15.2	18	77	4.3	2	3	20	0	0.25
12	vsWyoming	W24-10	-13.6	13	84	6.5	1	1	8	0	0.27
13	@Fresno State	L22-28	-3.8	2	4	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.35
14	vsUtah State	W42-37	-10.4	21	80	3.8	0	—	—	—	-0.08
20	vsMiami (OH)	L17-43	1.3	18	50	2.8	0	3	24	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.3%

Passing plays

4.2%

Rushing plays

42.9%

Standard downs

30.3%

Passing downs

14.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.02
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).