#4Dalvin Cook

RB·Florida State·2016 20154.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Dalvin Cook is a 2-year Featured Back for Florida State. Dalvin's 2016 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 320 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dalvin Cook's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1765 Rush yards19 Rush TD288 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

33 Receptions488 Rec yards1 Rec TD14.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency45
Volume99
Explosiveness62
Consistency70
Receiving52

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.51 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Clemson (SP+ 29).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsOle Miss	W45-34	12.4	23	91	4.0	0	7	101	0	0.23
2	vsCharleston Southern	W52-8	—	11	83	7.5	2	1	9	0	0.43
3	@Louisville	L20-63	22.9	16	54	3.4	0	1	8	0	-0.10
4	@South Florida	W55-35	9.8	28	267	9.5	2	4	62	0	0.49
5	vsNorth Carolina	L35-37	15.9	29	140	4.8	3	6	106	0	0.39
6	@Miami	W20-19	18.6	27	150	5.6	0	1	59	1	0.18
7	vsWake Forest	W17-6	-0.6	25	115	4.6	0	1	11	0	-0.17
9	vsClemson	L34-37	28.7	19	169	8.9	4	2	15	0	0.51
10	@NC State	W24-20	9.4	18	65	3.6	1	2	17	0	0.07
11	vsBoston College	W45-7	-1.6	18	108	6.0	1	2	12	0	0.01
12	@Syracuse	W45-14	-2.7	28	225	8.0	4	—	—	—	0.30
13	vsFlorida	W31-13	15.4	26	153	5.9	1	3	26	0	0.15
1	vsMichigan	W33-32	24.4	20	145	7.3	1	3	62	0	0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

34.8%

Passing plays

10.0%

Rushing plays

59.2%

Standard downs

40.7%

Passing downs

21.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.49 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Florida State	5.8	0.450	—	102.6
2016	Florida State	4.3	0.340	-0.11	99.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.