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Jonathan Taylor

#23Jonathan Taylor

RB·Wisconsin·2019201820174.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jonathan Taylor is a 3-year Featured Back for Wisconsin. Jonathan's 2017 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 310 plays — a average rate for the RB. Jonathan's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jonathan Taylor's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017

3-Star · Developmental
Stars
247 composite
0.8884
National rank
#369
High school
Salem
Hometown
Salem, NJ

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2017 Production

Rushing
1794 Rush yards12 Rush TD270 Carries6.6 Yards/carry
Receiving
8 Receptions95 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency57
  • Volume92
  • Explosiveness72
  • Consistency57
  • Receiving23
Player type
Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average
Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average
Career trajectory:↑ Rising
Key findings
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
  • Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Production faded as the season progressed — 0.37 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • Peak game: 0.51 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Utah State (SP+ -3).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Eno BenjaminArizona State0.3304.6104.3
Breece HallIowa State0.3404.5102.3
Mohamed IbrahimMinnesota0.3305.3103.6
Dalvin CookFlorida State0.3404.399.3
D'Onta ForemanTexas0.3405.3112.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.5100.51Wk 1 vs Utah State: +0.51 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Florida Atlantic: +0.17 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs BYU: +0.35 EPA/play3Wk 5 vs Northwestern: +0.25 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Nebraska: +0.45 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Purdue: +0.26 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Maryland: +0.40 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Illinois: -0.03 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Indiana: +0.03 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Iowa: +0.00 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Michigan: +0.03 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Minnesota: +0.14 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Ohio State: -0.24 EPA/play14Wk 1 vs Miami: -0.16 EPA/play1
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsUtah StateW59-10-3.39879.710.51
2vsFlorida AtlanticW31-145.1262238.630.17
3@BYUW40-6-7.4181287.110.35
5vsNorthwesternW33-2411.219804.220.25
6@NebraskaW38-172.52524910.020.45
7vsPurdueW17-95.8302197.3111700.26
8vsMarylandW38-13-4.5221265.7112400.40
9@IllinoisW24-10-7.412736.10-0.03
10@IndianaW45-1710.200000.03
11vsIowaW38-149.8291575.4011400.00
12vsMichiganW24-1019.6191326.901-300.03
13@MinnesotaW31-00.4201497.410.14
14vsOhio StateL21-2730.915412.703300-0.24
1@MiamiW34-2417.4261305.001130-0.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
32.2%
Passing plays
4.1%
Rushing plays
49.1%
Standard downs
40.3%
Passing downs
11.5%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.07
Passing downs
0.61
Pass / Rush EPA
0.18 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+0.940−0.3520182019
EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 40 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2017Wisconsin
4.8
107.4
2018Wisconsin
5.0
106.9
2019Wisconsin
6.8
142.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.