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Jonathan Taylor

#23Jonathan Taylor

RB·Wisconsin·2019201820176.8 pts line value1st Round

Jonathan Taylor is a 3-year Featured Back for Wisconsin. Jonathan's 2019 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 344 plays — a above-average rate for the RB. Jonathan's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jonathan Taylor's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017

3-Star · Developmental
Stars
247 composite
0.8884
National rank
#369
High school
Salem
Hometown
Salem, NJ

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2019 Production

Rushing
2003 Rush yards21 Rush TD320 Carries6.3 Yards/carry
Receiving
26 Receptions252 Rec yards5 Rec TD9.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency85
  • Volume100
  • Explosiveness66
  • Consistency57
  • Receiving50
Player type
Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg
Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average
Career trajectory:↑ Rising
Key findings
  • Above-average efficiency for the RB position (85th percentile).
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
  • Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
  • 4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Kent State (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Leonard FournetteLSU0.3907.2125.2
Jay AjayiBoise State0.3706.7136.9
Cameron SkatteboArizona State0.4106.2126.7
Jeremy LangfordMichigan State0.4006.4118.8
Chuba HubbardOklahoma State0.4508.2154.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.8400.84Wk 1 vs South Florida: +0.56 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Central Michigan: +0.39 EPA/play2Wk 4 vs Michigan: +0.76 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Northwestern: +0.03 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Kent State: +0.84 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Michigan State: -0.03 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Illinois: -0.18 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Ohio State: -0.19 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Iowa: +0.44 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Nebraska: +0.38 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Purdue: +0.03 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Minnesota: +0.37 EPA/play14Wk 15 vs Ohio State: +0.01 EPA/play15Wk 1 vs Oregon: -0.14 EPA/play1
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1@South FloridaW49-0-9.8161358.4224820.56
2vsCentral MichiganW61-0-4.4191025.4331710.39
4vsMichiganW35-1420.7232038.821500.76
5vsNorthwesternW24-15-5.5261194.6131500.03
6vsKent StateW48-0-10.2191869.8432910.84
7vsMichigan StateW38-07.226803.123220-0.03
8@IllinoisL23-240.6281324.71120-0.18
9@Ohio StateL7-3835.420522.60150-0.19
11vsIowaW24-2216.7312508.101800.44
12@NebraskaW37-212.6252048.2221100.38
13vsPurdueW45-24-0.7282227.910.03
14@MinnesotaW38-1719.418764.2223910.37
15vsOhio StateL21-3435.4201487.412800.01
1vsOregonL27-2819.021944.502430-0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
36.8%
Passing plays
10.2%
Rushing plays
53.8%
Standard downs
44.3%
Passing downs
15.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.25
Passing downs
0.09
Pass / Rush EPA
0.46 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+0.940−0.3520182019
EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 40 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2017Wisconsin
4.8
107.4
2018Wisconsin
5.0
106.9
2019Wisconsin
6.8
142.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.