#27Jay Ajayi

RB·Boise State·2014 20136.7 pts line value1st Round

Jay Ajayi is a 2-year Featured Back for Boise State. Jay's 2014 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 390 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jay Ajayi's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1823 Rush yards28 Rush TD347 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

50 Receptions535 Rec yards4 Rec TD10.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Explosiveness46
Consistency73
Receiving54

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Wyoming (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Derrick Henry	Alabama	2015	411	0.410	7.9	168.5
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2019	338	0.420	6.8	142.0
Tavion Thomas	Cincinnati	2021	420	0.410	8.1	172.2
Leonard Fournette	LSU	2015	321	0.390	7.2	125.2
Ashton Jeanty	Boise State	2024	393	0.430	8.4	169.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsOle Miss	L13-35	20.7	20	86	4.3	0	12	93	1	0.13
2	vsColorado State	W37-24	4.5	33	219	6.6	2	4	61	1	0.39
3	@UConn	W38-21	-14.1	18	39	2.2	0	2	13	0	-0.19
4	vsLouisiana	W34-9	2.2	27	150	5.6	3	5	37	0	0.43
5	@Air Force	L14-28	-1.4	17	63	3.7	0	5	58	0	0.03
6	@Nevada	W51-46	-7.3	27	152	5.6	3	3	18	0	0.07
8	vsFresno State	W37-27	-6.9	30	158	5.3	2	4	37	0	0.41
9	vsBYU	W55-30	10.2	26	118	4.5	2	2	26	0	0.32
11	@New Mexico	W60-49	-15.0	31	161	5.2	2	1	75	1	0.33
12	vsSan Diego State	W38-29	1.0	31	134	4.3	3	4	25	0	0.23
13	@Wyoming	W63-14	-14.0	16	110	6.9	2	2	92	1	0.78
14	vsUtah State	W50-19	6.0	27	229	8.5	5	1	1	0	0.63
15	vsFresno State	W28-14	-6.9	22	70	3.2	1	—	—	—	0.26
1	vsArizona	W38-30	7.6	22	134	6.1	3	5	-1	0	0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.4%

Passing plays

11.2%

Rushing plays

59.8%

Standard downs

44.4%

Passing downs

21.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.18
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.70 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Boise State	1.3	0.050	—	10.6
2014	Boise State	6.7	0.370	+0.32	136.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.