#13Jeremy McNichols

RB·Boise State·2016 20154.7 pts line value1st Round

Jeremy McNichols is a 2-year Featured Back for Boise State. Jeremy's 2016 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 344 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jeremy McNichols's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1709 Rush yards23 Rush TD314 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

37 Receptions474 Rec yards4 Rec TD12.8 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns72 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume100
Explosiveness48
Consistency70
Receiving44

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Louisiana (SP+ -9).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
D'Onta Foreman	Texas	2016	332	0.340	5.3	112.9
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Mohamed Ibrahim	Minnesota	2022	314	0.330	5.3	103.6
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Louisiana	W45-10	-8.7	9	48	5.3	2	3	98	1	0.89
2	vsWashington State	W31-28	6.2	22	116	5.3	2	3	25	0	0.14
4	@Oregon State	W38-24	-4.6	28	208	7.4	3	4	20	1	0.48
5	vsUtah State	W21-10	-4.4	30	132	4.4	0	6	73	1	-0.01
6	@New Mexico	W49-21	-5.1	21	54	2.6	2	—	—	—	-0.05
7	vsColorado State	W28-23	0.8	40	217	5.4	2	4	47	0	0.27
8	vsBYU	W28-27	8.0	30	140	4.7	1	5	109	1	0.32
9	@Wyoming	L28-30	-6.9	18	143	7.9	2	2	18	0	0.35
10	vsSan José State	W45-31	-13.6	28	158	5.6	2	1	9	0	0.23
11	@Hawai'i	W52-16	-10.1	16	153	9.6	2	3	29	0	0.59
12	vsUNLV	W42-25	-14.3	31	206	6.6	4	1	22	0	0.46
13	@Air Force	L20-27	4.4	22	88	4.0	1	—	—	—	-0.12
1	vsBaylor	L12-31	11.3	19	46	2.4	0	5	24	0	0.05

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

39.3%

Passing plays

9.6%

Rushing plays

66.0%

Standard downs

45.7%

Passing downs

22.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.77 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Boise State	2.4	0.250	—	60.5
2016	Boise State	4.7	0.330	+0.08	112.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.