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Holden Willis
Holden Willis

#83Holden Willis

TE·Middle Tennessee·2024

Holden Willis is a Versatile TE for Middle Tennessee. Holden's 2024 season produced 69.5 total EPA across 46 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.42
    Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.46
    Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Holden Willis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
53 Receptions871 Rec yards6 Rec TD16.4 Yards/rec
Returns
1 Kick returns4 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume22
  • Explosiveness63
  • Consistency89
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency89th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.92 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -19).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.920−2.92Wk 1 vs Tennessee Tech: +1.71 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Ole Miss: +0.90 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Western Kentucky: +1.36 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Duke: +2.42 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Memphis: +1.47 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Louisiana Tech: +1.31 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Kennesaw State: +0.92 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Jacksonville State: +1.37 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Liberty: +1.73 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs New Mexico State: +2.92 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Florida International: +1.72 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsTennessee TechW32-25—23216.00251.71
2@Ole MissL3-5227.969315.50290.90
3vsWestern KentuckyL21-49-2.247318.30321.36
4vsDukeL17-455.636020.01232.42
5@MemphisL7-249.656212.40251.47
7@Louisiana TechL21-48-11.657915.81351.31
8vsKennesaw StateW14-5-25.189211.50250.92
9@Jacksonville StateL20-42-1.0610918.21611.37
11vsLibertyL17-370.258116.20221.73
13vsNew Mexico StateL21-36-19.036722.31432.92
14vsFlorida InternationalL24-35-12.1612320.52561.72

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
7.7%
Passing plays
12.6%
Rushing plays
0.4%
Standard downs
8.0%
Passing downs
7.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.37
Passing downs
1.87
Pass / Rush EPA
1.49 / 2.44

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.