vs Nevada · Wk 3Win prob 54%Model -1.3Schedule & Results
MRSHMarshallL26-28✓Wk 3vsNEVNevada-1.354%Wk 4@
JXSTJacksonville State+10.125%Wk 5@
KUKansas+17.014%Wk 7vs
DELDelaware+11.823%Wk 8@
FIUFlorida International+5.137%Wk 9vs
KENNKennesaw State+1.447%Wk 10vs
WKUWestern Kentucky+8.830%Wk 11@
LIBLiberty+14.318%Wk 12@
SHSUSam Houston+2.544%Wk 13vs
NMSUNew Mexico State-5.566%Team Leaders
Roman GaglianoPassing200 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Antonio MartinRushing103 yds · 0 TD · 6.9 avg
Cam'Ron LacyReceiving8 rec · 118 yds · 1 TD
Kalen WoodsTackles7 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Middle Tennessee
All news →Middle Tennessee's run game is Marshall's one real problem
Roman Gagliano produced six of Middle Tennessee's eleven explosive plays
Roster · 112 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mason Mallory | QB | FR | 6'1" | 203 | Delray Beach, FL |
| 11 | Peter Costelli | QB | SR | 6'3" | 222 | San Pedro, CA |
| 12 | Peter Grandjean | QB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Oxford, MS |
| 15 | Rocco Williams | QB | FR | 6'1" | 198 | Pickerington, OH |
| 16 | Roman Gagliano | QB | SO | 6'3" | 219 | Opelika, AL |
| 18 | Stanley Anderson-Lofton | QB | FR | 6'2" | 222 | Orlando, FL |
| 8 | Antonio Martin | RB | SR | 5'10" | 240 | Atlanta, GA |
| 9 | Terrence Brown | RB | SR | 5'9" | 215 | Detroit, MI |
| 21 | Ashton Jones | RB | SO | 5'8" | 194 | Nashville, TN |
| 29 | DJ Taylor | RB | SO | 6'1" | 209 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 30 | Robert Lathon Jr. | RB | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Columbus, OH |
| 31 | Austin Clemons | RB | SO | 6'0" | 212 | Pembroke, GA |
| 33 | Brooklen Davis | RB | FR | 5'10" | 203 | Nashville, TN |
| 35 | Duece Lawrence | RB | FR | 5'9" | 197 | Jackson, TN |
| 0 | Santana Fleming | WR | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| 1 | Markus Allen | WR | SR | 6'2" | 212 | Dayton, OH |
| 3 | Cam'ron Lacy | WR | JR | 5'8" | 164 | Toccoa, GA |
| 4 | Tyree Patterson | WR | JR | 6'1" | 198 | Eustis, FL |
| 6 | AJ Jones | WR | SR | 6'4" | 208 | Ontario, CA |
| 7 | Hogan Wasson | WR | SR | 5'10" | 183 | Colleyville, TX |
| 13 | Ziyon Butler | WR | FR | 5'11" | 154 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 17 | Bryson Maddox | WR | FR | 6'4" | 180 | Clinton, TN |
| 19 | Kason Stokes | WR | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Tampa, FL |
| 23 | Malachi Steele | WR | FR | 5'8" | 155 | Franklin, TN |
| 39 | Chase Davis | WR | FR | 5'8" | 154 | Houston, TX |
| 43 | Christopher Kaup | WR | SO | 6'2" | 184 | Chicago, IL |
| 80 | Zaidyn Moore | WR | SO | 5'10" | 194 | Lavinia, TN |
| 85 | Neo Clifton | WR | FR | 6'2" | 207 | Nashville, TN |
| 89 | Landon Collins | WR | SO | 6'2" | 185 | Knoxville, TN |
| 39 | Evan Poticher | TE | JR | 6'2" | 246 | Kodak, TN |
| 47 | Sawyer Lovvorn | TE | SO | 6'0" | 224 | Shelbyville, TN |
| 81 | Wilson Hodges | TE | FR | 6'4" | 251 | Montgomery, AL |
| 83 | Koraun Perdue | TE | FR | 6'6" | 232 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 84 | Jadin Hambrick | TE | JR | 6'6" | 219 | Tyler, TX |
| 86 | Brody Benke | TE | SO | 6'3" | 253 | Fort Thomas, KY |
| 88 | Tayvion Galloway | TE | SO | 6'4" | 232 | Chillicothe, OH |
| 50 | Chris Moreno | OL | JR | 6'1" | 318 | Newark, NJ |
| 53 | Roman Jones | OL | FR | 6'2" | 261 | Brentwood, TN |
| 55 | Adrian Crespin | OL | JR | 6'2" | 296 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 58 | Trevaris Edwards | OL | JR | 6'2" | 307 | Pensacola, FL |
| 61 | Otto Janse Van Rensburg | OL | SO | 6'4" | 304 | Sevierville, TN |
| 62 | Tim Jacobs | OL | JR | 6'4" | 309 | Columbus, OH |
| 63 | Alex Gale | OL | SO | 6'3" | 311 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 65 | Brennan Smith | OL | SR | 6'3" | 320 | Pensacola, FL |
| 71 | Quentin Butler | OL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | Culpeper, VA |
| 74 | Ashley Walker | OL | FR | 6'8" | 303 | Delray Beach, FL |
| 75 | Reese Tripp | OL | JR | 6'7" | 365 | Mantorville, MN |
| 76 | Garrett Austin | OL | FR | 6'6" | 310 | Hampstead, NC |
| 77 | Diego Blattler | OL | SR | 6'6" | 290 | San Diego, CA |
| 78 | Kyle Larkin | OL | FR | 6'6" | 314 | Brentwood, TN |
| 79 | Jack Mohlman | OL | FR | 6'5" | 270 | Ponte Vedra, FL |
| 41 | Trashun Griffin | DE | SO | 6'3" | 272 | Centreville, AL |
| 49 | Tiyyan Robinson | DE | SO | 6'3" | 263 | Durham, NC |
| 75 | Matthew Blomquist | DE | SO | 6'5" | 264 | Manchester, TN |
| 93 | Aidan Butts | DE | JR | 6'3" | 244 | Toccoa, GA |
| 45 | Jayden Arenas-Michel | DT | FR | 6'4" | 271 | Montreal, PQ |
| 74 | Jonathan Waller | DT | FR | 6'1" | 276 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 90 | Justin Bodford | DT | SO | 6'0" | 295 | Plantation, FL |
| 95 | Zeion Simpson-Smith | DT | SO | 6'2" | 277 | Nashville, TN |
| 96 | Christien Moreau | DT | FR | 6'1" | 290 | Miramar, FL |
| 97 | Victory Vaka | DT | SR | 6'2" | 362 | Hollywood, CA |
| 91 | Felix Hixon | NT | SR | 6'1" | 306 | Jackson, GA |
| 98 | Emmanuel Gyamfi | NT | JR | 6'0" | 295 | Buford, GA |
| 99 | Archie Roseman V | NT | FR | 6'3" | 324 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 13 | Ashton Taylor | LB | SR | 6'0" | 224 | Hoover, AL |
| 16 | Jaiyden Thompson | LB | SR | 6'3" | 249 | Okolona, MS |
| 17 | Jayson Lowe | LB | JR | 6'1" | 217 | Brentwood, TN |
| 26 | Korey Smith | LB | JR | 5'11" | 216 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 31 | Mathias Malaki-Donaldson | LB | SR | 6'5" | 225 | Baldwin Park, CA |
| 32 | Jonas Jimerson | LB | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Memphis, TN |
| 33 | Malik Love | LB | SO | 6'4" | 227 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 40 | BJ Ausmer | LB | SO | 6'2" | 242 | Ocean Springs, MS |
| 42 | La'Garrius Sims | LB | JR | 6'3" | 236 | Mobile, AL |
| 44 | Kaven Call | LB | JR | 6'2" | 244 | Apopka, FL |
| 46 | Reggie Johnson | LB | SR | 6'3" | 258 | Carson, CA |
| 48 | Darnell Malpress | LB | FR | 6'3" | 229 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 51 | Shane Rochelle | LB | FR | 6'0" | 216 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| 52 | Micah Smith | LB | FR | 6'2" | 246 | Hermitage, TN |
| 53 | Braxton Lillis | LB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 94 | Jayden Williams | LB | JR | 6'6" | 253 | Smyrna, TN |
| 2 | Jackson Lowe | CB | SO | 6'1" | 198 | Brentwood, TN |
| 12 | Ricky Lee | CB | JR | 5'10" | 166 | Atlanta, GA |
| 15 | Devan Carlisle | CB | JR | 6'4" | 204 | Hoover, AL |
| 18 | Troy Booker Jr. | CB | SO | 6'0" | 207 | Evans, GA |
| 19 | Aidan Singleton | CB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Port Saint Lucie, FL |
| 21 | Jason Hardy | CB | SR | 6'1" | 183 | Detroit, MI |
| 23 | KJ Miniefield | CB | JR | 5'11" | 175 | Chandler, AZ |
| 25 | Ethan Sherman | CB | FR | 5'11" | 179 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 27 | Jalen Jackson | CB | SO | 6'3" | 188 | Nashville, TN |
| 28 | Alan Young | CB | JR | 6'0" | 203 | Nashville, TN |
| 36 | Chris Ragans | CB | FR | 6'0" | 173 | Hopkinsville, KY |
| 38 | Locke Kennedy | CB | SO | 6'3" | 209 | Franklin, TN |
| 0 | Kalen Woods | S | SR | 6'2" | 196 | Oakland, CA |
| 5 | Dyson McCutcheon | S | SR | 5'9" | 181 | Claremont, CA |
| 7 | Christofer Noble | S | SO | 6'2" | 206 | Kankakee, IL |
| 10 | Jordan Chestnut | S | SR | 6'4" | 206 | Myrtle Beach, SC |
| 11 | James Johnson | S | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Douglasville, GA |
| 22 | Gumbo Gaskins | S | SR | 6'1" | 191 | Jonesboro, GA |
| 24 | Camari Hall | S | SO | 5'9" | 184 | Hollywood, FL |
| 29 | Andrew Cross-Adams | S | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Nashville, TN |
| 30 | Bryce Williams | S | FR | 5'11" | 197 | Saint Cloud, FL |
| 37 | Justis Haggard | S | FR | 5'10" | 198 | Tullahoma, TN |
| 91 | Dominic Bourgeois | PK | SR | 5'8" | 218 | Baltimore, MD |
| 94 | Jack Walton | PK | FR | 6'2" | 193 | Nashville, TN |
| 96 | Wyatt Joyce | PK | JR | 5'10" | 170 | Lewisburg, TN |
| 92 | Ashton Logan | P | SR | 6'2" | 209 | Anaheim Hills, CA |
| 97 | Aden Caine | P | JR | 6'1" | 202 | Newcastle |
| 54 | Connor Dougherty | LS | SR | 6'3" | 231 | Franklin, TN |
| 56 | Ean Matusek | LS | FR | 6'0" | 223 | Shelbyville, TN |
| 59 | Henry Hamlin | LS | SO | 6'3" | 232 | Johnson City, TN |
| 60 | Charlie Oltremari | LS | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Germantown, TN |
| — | Terrence Brown Jr. | — | — | — | — | — |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd at defending the pass, and they are 127th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −30.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#127projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 4.45#5
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 2.18 / 3.09
- Power / stuff (off)
- 50.0% / 9.1%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 10.0%#129
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 4.0% / 6.0%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.33#20 | 0.55#25 | 0.88#27 |
| Defense | -0.52#3 | 0.50#126 | 0.15#32 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4074th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1436th
- Offense success rate50%66th
- Defense success rate allowed44%26th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%53rd
- Offense success — passing downs45%77th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs49%30th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs33%34th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.366th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.255th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.155th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.376th
Trenches
- Offense line yards4.498th
- Defense line yards allowed3.126th
- Offense highlight yards3.191st
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.425th
- Offense power success0.5022nd
- Defense power success allowed0.8334th
- Offense stuff rate0.0984th
- Defense stuff rate0.1530th
Third down
- Third down conversion43%47th
- Third down distance faced6.656th
- Third down conversion allowed30%67th
- Third down distance forced6.323rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2269th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0825th
Roster
- Returning usage29%33rd
- Returning EPA70.836th
- Team talent composite57221st
- Recruiting class rank11914th
- Recruiting class points16514th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.189 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Middle Tennessee is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Middle Tennessee in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 33% | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 2018 | 8-6 | 7-2 | 57% | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 7.2 | -0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 3.4-8.6. Wins the Conference USA in 0.8%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
up 0.0 points since preseason.
- The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Middle Tennessee’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk11at Liberty0.2
- wk3vs Nevada0.1
- wk2at Marshall0.1
- wk8at Florida International0.1
- wk9vs Kennesaw State0.1
- wk7vs Delaware0.1
Who to root for
Games Middle Tennessee is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk4Illinois over Ohio State0.1
- wk7North Dakota State over Nevada0.0
- wk10Sacramento State over Toledo0.0
- wk7Florida State over Miami0.0
- wk10Georgia State over App State0.0
- wk4South Alabama over Kentucky0.0
Conference USA
0-0 in league play, projected 2.1-5.910 of 10 by title oddsThe Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11Middle Tennessee at Liberty5.2
- wk5Middle Tennessee at Kansas3.8
- wk8Middle Tennessee at Florida International2.9
- wk9Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee2.2
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →
If not the playoff, then
Middle Tennessee is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- New Orleans Bowl3.3%
- 68 Ventures Bowl3.2%
- Hawai'i Bowl2.9%
- Xbox Bowl1.6%
- Armed Forces Bowl1.1%
- Boca Raton Bowl0.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent Middle Tennessee a player since 2010 — 12 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Middle Tennessee's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.