Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumESPN+
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MTSU 1164
NEV 1277
Projected spread
MTSU +1.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
NEV
53% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
47%
MTSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MTSU Elo 1164, NEV Elo 1277) plus home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +1.1 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelNEV 53% · MTSU 47%
Pick: NEV
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
NEV2025 season · national rank shownMTSU
302.4126th
Total yards / game
371.082nd5.0117th
Yards / play
5.5Key matchups · Pro
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- MTSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge MTSU.
FAQ
Who will win Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee?
Gridpex's model favors Nevada with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee?
The model projects Nevada by 1.1.
What time is Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM on ESPN+, at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Nevada at 53% to win, projecting Nevada by 1.1.