Middle Tennessee vs. Kansas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Middle Tennessee gets at Kansas: 78th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 132nd at keeping everything in front of them. Where Kansas gets at Middle Tennessee: 37th on first and second down, against a unit 119th on early downs defensively. Kansas is also 54th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 125th.
How
MTSUattacks
KU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MTSU#78 of 138KU#132 of 138
HowKUattacksMTSU
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
KU#37 of 138MTSU#119 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
KU#54 of 138MTSU#125 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
KU#63 of 138MTSU#132 of 138
The two teams
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd at defending the pass, and they are 127th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −30.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#127projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Kansas
Kansas runs it: Lance Leipold's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th in the push up front. The way in is 132nd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Kansas has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#9projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#128projected
- Defensethrowing it#108projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1473, MTSU Elo 1278 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU -17 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MTSU14th69thKUKU67th106thMTSUThrough the air
MTSU93rd69thKUKU57th44thMTSUOn the ground
MTSU47th63rdKUKU58th94thMTSUStaying on the field
MTSU67th53rdKUKU85th48thMTSUTaking care of it
MTSU1st53rdKUKU118th88thMTSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.7 (#104) | CORE overall | +2.2 (#63) |
| -4 / +5 | offense / defense | +3 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Middle Tennessee vs. Kansas?
Gridpex's model favors Kansas with a 86% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Middle Tennessee vs. Kansas?
The model projects Kansas by 17.0.
What time is Middle Tennessee vs. Kansas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →