Middle Tennessee
Conference USA· Elo 1164
@
Tue, Oct 20, 11:00 PM
Florida International
Conference USA· Elo 1324
Pitbull StadiumCBSSNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FIU 1324
MTSU 1164
Projected spread
FIU -8.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
FIU
73% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
FIU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FIU Elo 1324, MTSU Elo 1164) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU -8.3 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMTSU 27% · FIU 73%
Pick: FIU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
MTSU2025 season · national rank shownFIU
371.082nd
Total yards / game
397.059th5.586th
Yards / play
5.6Key matchups · Pro
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. MTSU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge FIU.
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FIU.
FAQ
Who will win Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International?
Gridpex's model favors Florida International with a 73% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International?
The model projects Florida International by 8.3.
What time is Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International and what channel is it on?
Tue, Oct 20, 11:00 PM on CBSSN, at Pitbull Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Florida International at 73% to win, projecting Florida International by 8.3.