Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Liberty gets at Middle Tennessee: 91st at throwing it, against a unit 132nd at defending the pass. Middle Tennessee projects no clear way in against Liberty. Liberty is also 86th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 125th.
How
LIBattacks
MTSU
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
LIB#91 of 138MTSU#132 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
LIB#86 of 138MTSU#125 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
LIB#83 of 138MTSU#119 of 138
The two teams
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd at defending the pass, and they are 127th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −30.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#127projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Liberty
Liberty runs it: Jamey Chadwell's offenses have been run-leaning across 8 seasons. The way in is 121st at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 119th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Liberty has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#121projected
- Defenserunning it#119projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#117projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1697, MTSU Elo 1278 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -14.3 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MTSU54th62ndLIBLIB108th91stMTSUThrough the air
MTSU75th34thLIBLIB88th41stMTSUOn the ground
MTSU78th95thLIBLIB90th90thMTSUStaying on the field
MTSU119th78thLIBLIB110th53rdMTSUTaking care of it
MTSU21st45thLIBLIB49th75thMTSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.7 (#104) | CORE overall | -4.6 (#83) |
| -4 / +5 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty?
Gridpex's model favors Liberty with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty?
The model projects Liberty by 14.3.
What time is Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET, at Williams Stadium (VA).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →