Middle Tennessee vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Middle Tennessee gets at Sam Houston: 95th on first and second down, against a unit 133rd on early downs defensively. Sam Houston projects no clear way in against Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee is also 95th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 130th.
How
MTSUattacks
SHSU
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MTSU#95 of 138SHSU#133 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
MTSU#95 of 138SHSU#130 of 138
The two teams
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd at defending the pass, and they are 127th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −30.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#127projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at throwing it, and they are 135th at surviving second and twelve.
Sam Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1164, MTSU Elo 1276 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SHSU -2.5 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MTSU14th79thSHSUSHSU101st106thMTSUThrough the air
MTSU93rd56thSHSUSHSU18th44thMTSUOn the ground
MTSU47th115thSHSUSHSU135th94thMTSUStaying on the field
MTSU67th85thSHSUSHSU67th48thMTSUTaking care of it
MTSU1st118thSHSUSHSU31st88thMTSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.7 (#104) | CORE overall | -11.7 (#117) |
| -4 / +5 | offense / defense | -6 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Middle Tennessee vs. Sam Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Sam Houston with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Middle Tennessee vs. Sam Houston?
The model projects Sam Houston by 2.5.
What time is Middle Tennessee vs. Sam Houston and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →