Middle Tennessee vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MTSUTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 0:50MTSUAJ Jones 15 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–28
- Q4 4:18MRSHTJ Lester 2 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)20–28
- Q4 12:06MRSHXayvion Turner-Bradshaw 0 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)20–21
- Q3 5:36MTSUCam'ron Lacy 11 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)20–14
- Q2 3:50MTSUDominic Bourgeois 35 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 8:31MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 4 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:54MTSUDominic Bourgeois 52 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:08MTSUKalen Woods 1 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:36MRSHXayvion Turner-Bradshaw 69 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Marshall is a 14.2-point favorite a week after being shut out, and the only unit edge that belongs to the visitor is on the ground.
Marshall was shut out 45-0 at Penn State a week ago and is still a 14.2-point favorite, because the case for the Herd is a 5-7 season that scored 30.8 points a game and a roster that kept most of the people who produced it. Middle Tennessee arrives 1-0 off a 38-14 win. The one edge on the board that belongs to the visitor is also the one that travels to a hostile field: the ground game.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MTSU ahead, below = MRSH ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassRoman Gagliano 25/47, 243 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRoman Gagliano 8 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecCam'ron Lacy 9 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 7/8, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 10 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXayvion Turner-Bradshaw 2 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Marshall?
Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MRSH) was correct.
| MTSU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Total yards | 310 |
| 243 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 129 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/47 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-34 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 32:46 | Possession | 27:14 |
- Q4 0:50MTSUAJ Jones 15 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–28
- Q4 4:18MRSHTJ Lester 2 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)20–28
- Q4 12:06MRSHXayvion Turner-Bradshaw 0 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)20–21
- Q3 5:36MTSUCam'ron Lacy 11 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)20–14
- Q2 3:50MTSUDominic Bourgeois 35 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 8:31MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 4 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:54MTSUDominic Bourgeois 52 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:08MTSUKalen Woods 1 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:36MRSHXayvion Turner-Bradshaw 69 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1389, MTSU Elo 1276 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -18.2 (88% to win) — 5.2 points clear of MRSH's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 5–5 · 30% have been one-possession games
| MTSU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.7 (#104) | CORE overall | -10.2 (#110) |
| -4 / +5 | offense / defense | -2 / +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Middle Tennessee's run game is Marshall's one real problem
Marshall is a 14.2-point favorite a week after being shut out, and the only unit edge that belongs to the visitor is on the ground.
Middle Tennessee wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Marshall, the more likely Marshall wins.
Marshall already beat this team, on the road
These two played last season in Murfreesboro and Marshall won 42-28, which is worth more than either opener because it was these rosters against each other rather than a mismatch against whoever the schedule produced. Marshall did it as the visitor, against a Middle Tennessee side that finished 3-9 and averaged 22.4 points. The projection points in the same direction that night did, and it does so on evidence that involves both of these programs.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Marshall are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Middle Tennessee's opener was the cleaner performance of the two by a distance. It scored on 62.5% of eight possessions against Murray State, averaged 48.9 yards per drive, and went three-and-out on 12.5% of them — an offense that stayed ahead of the chains and did not waste series. That is a different team from the one that averaged 22.4 points last season, at least for one afternoon, and it is the most recent thing anyone has to go on.
Marshall's afternoon inverted every one of those figures: no points on twelve possessions, 13.9 yards per drive, three-and-out on 58.3% of them. Penn State does that to offenses, and the 45 points allowed should not be carried forward wholesale. What does carry forward is that Marshall never sustained anything long enough to test its own identity, and it now meets a defense that held its opener to 14.
The ground game is the one place Middle Tennessee is better
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Marshall are battles it should win; toward Middle Tennessee are ones Middle Tennessee wins.
Middle Tennessee's run game against Marshall's defense is the largest single edge in this matchup at +2.13 standard deviations, and it does not stand alone: overall offensive efficiency tilts +1.92 the same way, staying on schedule +1.21. Those three describe one thing rather than three — a visiting offense built to win first down on the ground, which is precisely how a two-score underdog takes possessions away from the better team.
That edge does not live in one running back. DJ Taylor projects for 15 to 43 rushing yards with a 25% chance of a touchdown, which is a rotational share rather than a workhorse load. Roman Gagliano carries the more consequential band — 113 to 234 passing yards, a 70% chance of a touchdown — off five games of work last season, so the ceiling here is attached to a quarterback with a short résumé.
The receiving bands say the same thing about how narrow the margin is. Landon Collins projects between 27 and 54 yards, AJ Jones between 9 and 28 with a 35% touchdown chance. Those are complementary figures, not the profile of a passing game that carries an upset by itself. Middle Tennessee's route to points is drive length and field position, earned on the ground, with the throws finishing what the run sets up.
Marshall projects volume through the air, not explosives
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson projects 134 to 269 passing yards with an 81% chance of throwing a touchdown — the strongest scoring likelihood on either side, built on eleven games last season. That is the most established profile in the building, and it is the reason this projection still has Marshall reaching 33 points after an opener in which the offense did not reach the end zone at all.
The shape of that passing game is short and distributed rather than vertical. Adrian Norton projects 35 to 69 yards with a 49% touchdown chance, Toby Payne 23 to 53 at 26%, De'Andre Tamarez 18 to 59. Zion Turner adds 18 to 42 on the ground. No one in that group profiles as a player who ends a drive in one snap, which matters against a defense holding the big-play edge by 1.54 standard deviations.
Both defenses arrive with something to disprove
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Middle Tennessee's defense is below average, better than only 0% of FBS defenses.
The big-play number is the underrated half of Middle Tennessee's case. Marshall's offense is the side being contained here, not the side manufacturing chunk gains, and Middle Tennessee's defense allowed 14 in its opener. If the visitor turns this into a series of ten-play possessions, the path to a comfortable Marshall margin narrows to a scoring rate the Herd has not shown since last November.
Marshall's defense is the unit Middle Tennessee is running at, and it gave up 45 last week. The opponent explains most of that, but nothing in the afternoon suggested a front that stones a functional rushing attack, and the +2.13 edge is graded against this defense specifically rather than against the league. That is Middle Tennessee's most reliable method of keeping the better offense on the sideline.
Middle Tennessee's path is possessions, not chaos
The honest underdog route is tempo control. Score on drives at anything near the 62.5% rate from the opener, keep three-and-outs close to 12.5%, and Marshall gets fewer chances to demonstrate that last week was an aberration rather than a condition. This projection gives a one-score finish a 14% chance — a narrow window, and the only version of Saturday where Middle Tennessee's ground edge converts into an actual result rather than respectable yardage.
The version of Marshall that shows up decides this
Marshall needs the team that averaged 30.8 points last season and won in Murfreesboro, and it needs Del Rio-Wilson's touchdown likelihood to show up in the first half, a second consecutive scoreless start turns a home favorite into a nervous building. Middle Tennessee needs the run edge to appear on first down and the total to stay under 57.5. The projection covers -14.2 in roughly 73% of its outcomes.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →