Louisville vs. Georgia Tech Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Louisville gets at Georgia Tech: 27th on first and second down, against a unit 99th on early downs defensively. Georgia Tech projects no clear way in against Louisville. Louisville is also 22nd at running it, against a unit 83rd.
How
LOUattacks
GT
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
LOU#27 of 138GT#99 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
LOU#22 of 138GT#83 of 138
The two teams
Louisville
Louisville throws it: Jeff Brohm's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th at closing out passing downs. The way in is 116th at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisville has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#15projected
- Defensethrowing it#16projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#116projected
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech runs it: Brent Key's offenses have been run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 19th in the push up front. The way in is 132nd at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Georgia Tech has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#19projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#21projected
- Offensefirst and second down#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#132projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1503, LOU Elo 1668 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT +6.8 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
LOU15th38thGTGT100th82ndLOUThrough the air
LOU13th24thGTGT64th112thLOUOn the ground
LOU41st119thGTGT131st74thLOUStaying on the field
LOU35th94thGTGT88th60thLOUTaking care of it
LOU1st118thGTGT31st30thLOU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LOU | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.9 (#28) | CORE overall | +6.8 (#44) |
| +9 / -4 | offense / defense | +3 / -4 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 0.67 |
| 3.15 | allowed / drive | 1.56 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisville vs. Georgia Tech?
Gridpex's model favors Louisville with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisville vs. Georgia Tech?
The model projects Louisville by 6.8.
What time is Louisville vs. Georgia Tech and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →