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Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Conference USA·1-2·
Compare
Elo
1432#81
SP+
-7.0#91
FPI
-10.0
AP
NR
Nextvs Georgia Southern · Wk 3Win prob 68%Model -7.5
Talent #93 (602.8)Recruiting class #8650% production returning

Roster · 131 players

FR 59SO 29JR 23SR 20
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2Kadyn PalmerQBFR5'11"205
12Caden CreelQBJR6'0"200
15Jack MoranQBFR6'5"225
16Noah LeeQBFR6'4"205
19Donovan MoorheadQBFR6'5"210
0Andrew PaulRBSR6'0"220
6Jalen LikelyRBSO5'8"190
7Khristian LandoRBSO6'1"205
20Maurice WinstonRBFR5'10"180
21Justus SavageRBSO5'10"205
22Lucas FarringtonRBFR5'9"195
32Cedric KouemiRBFR5'11"210
38Jamarious AcklinRBFR6'1"185
3Darius CannonWRFR5'9"180
5Dylan GentryWRSO5'9"160
9Ronnel JohnsonWRSR6'0"180
9Wyatt SondermanWRFR6'1"185
10AJ WatkinsWRSO6'1"191
11Deondre JohnsonWRJR6'8"220
13Cade FrierWRFR6'0"180
14Blake WallaceWRFR6'0"185
17Jamill WilliamsWRSR6'0"170
18Santonio JonesWRSO5'10"165
28Landon WatkinsWRFR5'8"170
29Rollie PintoWRFR6'0"200
39Bryson RouillierWRSO5'9"183
80Cianan WilliamsWRSR6'4"175
81Gabe GloverWRSO6'1"200
82Colton PitchfordWRJR5'11"190
84Franklin Baret Jr.WRSO6'4"200
86Nabi HoytWRSO6'0"195
89Camdon PitchfordWRFR5'9"170
4Shane Payton HodgesTEJR6'4"250
30Luke GilbertTESO6'3"215
41Trace ThompsonTEFR6'3"245
44Jameson ScissumTEFR6'4"226
48Wes RyanTEFR6'7"240
83David Alpers IIITESR6'6"240
87Andrevius SmithTEFR6'7"240
88Kam BellTEJR6'4"230
50Lucas MrachkovskiyOLSO6'2"295
51Bo BurkesOLSR6'2"305
52Storm FainOLFR6'3"290
53Max ShiverOLFR6'4"310
54Markevian BlakeOLFR6'2"295
55Ryan WalkerOLJR6'3"285
56Daylan MartinOLSO6'4"310
57Oliver MaldonadoOLFR6'4"306
58Kendarius BlairOLFR6'3"270
60William HathcockOLFR6'4"300
62Hadine DiabyOLJR6'3"300
63Ryland BraggOLSO6'2"298
65Britin WittOLJR6'3"300
67Shaun MartinOLSO6'4"290
70Jeremiah OrrOLSR6'5"325
71Cam StancilOLJR6'4"300
72Nate SmithOLJR6'5"265
73J.R. JerniganOLSO6'4"270
74Amarii AtchisonOLJR6'8"300
75Caleb HolmesOLFR6'3"300
76JT HowellOLFR6'2"305
77Vern FaulkOLFR6'3"320
78Will CooperOLFR6'5"300
79Lance JohnsonOLSO6'4"290
94Jumarion LarryDESR6'4"260
14Angel ToombsDLJR6'5"260
15Tae FloydDLJR6'3"250
16Quay HoodDLSO6'2"275
28Christopher JohnsonDLFR6'3"290
44Khurtiss PerryDLSR6'3"280
54Jackson BunnDLFR6'2"302
90Marvin StringfellowDLJR6'2"290
92Marquis HoodDLSR6'2"275
93Jawaun CampbellDLJR5'11"282
95Jermaine Waters Jr.DLFR6'4"245
96Nii AddyDLSO6'2"300
97McCade WrightDLFR6'5"260
98Kyten DavisDLFR6'5"220
99Andrew RumphDLJR6'3"265
0Myles ButlerLBSR6'1"220
2Morven JosephLBSR6'3"220
11Walter ReddickLBSO6'3"250
13Jacob CruzLBSR6'4"230
31Tristan LylesLBFR6'1"238
34Jameson McColloughLBFR6'1"215
35Aidan ThompsonLBJR6'2"230
36Brayden MatthewsLBFR6'1"210
37Cai MayowaLBSR6'2"220
40Walker O'SteenLBSR6'3"215
42Devin PettwayLBFR6'1"215
43Austin BouckLBFR6'4"195
45Mikey RosaLBJR6'3"245
47Mario AllowayLBFR6'2"225
48Peyton ConsaulLBFR6'5"225
50Shaynadd WhitfieldLBFR5'11"200
53Ian MitchellLBSO6'4"245
59Mac SandersLBSO6'2"225
3Tre'Quon FegansCBSR6'1"190
8JQ BrooksCBFR6'3"180
9Jonavan CarrCBSO6'0"173
10RJ RainerCBSO6'0"180
17Rodarion JonesCBFR6'1"180
18Keiyon TurnerCBSR6'1"180
21Tim AnthonyCBFR6'1"180
22Jaheim JenkinsCBSR6'2"190
23Temarion FosterCBFR5'11"190
29Javan AllisonCBFR6'0"180
32Micah McCarrollCBJR5'9"170
38Malik HendersonCBFR6'0"170
20Tre'Von PringleDBFR6'0"185
1Caleb NixSSR6'0"202
5Rob Billings IVSJR6'2"205
6Kaden CookSFR6'0"190
7Marc WoodsSSO6'4"202
12Brennan CoreSFR6'1"185
19Shondell HarrisSFR5'10"174
24Ty SimsSFR5'8"173
25Vernon Woodward IIISFR6'1"200
26Brice McKenzieSSO5'9"192
27Riggs DunnSSO6'0"185
30DJ VinsonSFR6'4"195
39Keith ChristeinSJR5'10"185
46Avion WillisSFR6'2"185
49Jay StoneSFR5'10"172
37Garrison RippaPKJR5'10"205
91Greg CasimirPKSR6'0"220
97Cleat ForrestPKFR5'9"165
41Carter LewisPFR5'9"185
87Conor DonaghyPSO6'2"195
45Dixon MusgroveLSJR6'5"215
90Rio HayLSSO6'1"230

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
27.7
scoring offense
Points allowed
23.0
scoring defense
Differential
+4.7
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
348.0#103
Yards / play
6.1#69
Passing yards / game
218.5#80
Rushing yards / game
129.5#95
First downs / game
20.0#78
3rd down %
52.4%#29
4th down %
66.7%#45
Time of possession
25:13#125
Defense
Yards allowed / game
329.0#76
Yards / play allowed
5.3#84
Pass yards allowed / game
127.0#27
Rush yards allowed / game
202.0#121
3rd down % allowed
32.0%#57
Sacks
3#58
Tackles for loss
10#51
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
0#66
Takeaways
3#30
Giveaways
3#95
Penalties / game
6.5#71
Penalty yards / game
62.5#94

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Jacksonville State is in year 2 under Charles Kelly. The way in is 104th at keeping everything in front of them.

Jacksonville State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Defensehitting chunk plays
    #104
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
6.0 – 6.0
projected final record (now 1–2)
Exp. wins left
5.0
of 9 games
Bowl odds
65%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
77%
vs Sam Houston
Toughest
24%
vs Delaware

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

12345678910
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 6-6 (28%)Bowl eligible 65% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBCaden Creel
+31.9 EPA
WRDeondre Johnson, Jamill Williams +3
+29.2 EPA
TEDavid Alpers, Luke Gilbert +1
+9.3 EPA
RBKhristian Lando, Jalen Likely +2
+7.7 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBCaden Creel
~$963K
EPA +31.90.307/play104 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1021st#109
Def0.1245th#77
Explosiveness
Off1.3570th#42
Def1.3334th#91
Field position
Off72.974th#36
Def75.820th#111
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off2.8019th#112
Def2.6072nd#40
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 4
Margin -1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.4261st#55
Off · rush
-0.0914th#119

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.0914th#119
Def0.1724th#105
Passing
Off0.4261st#55
Def0.0476th#34

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.63#109
2nd-level / open-field
1.18 / 1.24
Power / stuff (off)
70.0% / 20.0%
Havoc — total (def)
15.0%#85
Havoc — front 7 / DB
9.4% / 5.5%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.17
Def-0.05
Pass downs
Off-0.08
Def0.51

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.26#28-0.62#1380.81#38
Defense-0.18#420.43#1170.02#18

Elo Trajectory

@North Dakota State@Delaware
Elo rating 1494 → 1428-66 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1128th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.0453rd
  • Offense success rate46%48th
  • Defense success rate allowed40%42nd

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs52%55th
  • Offense success — passing downs32%46th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs48%35th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs20%73rd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.246th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.161st
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.166th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.412th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.940th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.847th
  • Offense highlight yards1.155th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.617th
  • Offense power success0.7039th
  • Defense power success allowed0.7050th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1647th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2258th

Third down

  • Third down conversion50%66th
  • Third down distance faced7.430th
  • Third down conversion allowed35%54th
  • Third down distance forced7.557th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0745th
  • Net success rate — second half0.0345th

Drives

  • Points per drive0.007th
  • Points per drive allowed2.635th
  • Average starting field position3276th
  • Opponent starting field position2382nd
  • Available yards gained31%18th
  • Available yards allowed47%49th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive50%7th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed80%51st
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.418th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.335th
  • Three-and-out rate10%82nd
  • Three-and-outs forced30%59th

Roster

  • Returning usage47%53rd
  • Returning EPA13459th
  • Team talent composite60333rd
  • Recruiting class rank86.038th
  • Recruiting class points18338th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.100#109 · below avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.423#55
Rush EPA/play
-0.090#119
Explosiveness
1.349#42
Pts/opportunity
2.80#112
Success rate
46.7%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.513 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.120#77 · average
Havoc rate (total)
15.0%#85
Front-7 havoc
9.4%
DB havoc
5.5%
Big play rate allowed
1.330#91
Success rate allowed
40.4%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

Points per game
27.7
Points allowed/game
23.0
Scoring margin/game
+4.7
Turnover margin
-1won 3 · lost 4
Production returning
50%
Talent rank (247)
#93

1-2 record through 3 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE21thEXPLOSIVENESS70thFINISHING19thFIELD POS74thDEFENSE45thHAVOC39th50th100th
Offense
21th
Explosiveness
70th
Finishing
19th
Field Pos
74th
Defense
45th
Havoc
39th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

The season, week by week · 2026

A season-long average is taken over a period during which the team changed. This is the same numbers as a trajectory, so a mid-season turn is visible instead of averaged away.

Offense EPA/play▲ 0.821 in the second half
-0.410.080.57112

Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.

Defense EPA allowed▲ 0.363 in the second half
-0.160.070.30112

Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.

Offense success rate▲ 0.273 in the second half
0.280.460.64112

Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.

Defense success allowed▲ 0.066 in the second half
0.350.390.44112

Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-15.3
#129
Offense
-9.9
#124
Defense
+5.4
#117
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 10 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.002.60
Starting field positionown 31.7own 23.3
Available yards31.0%47.3%
Scoring opportunities50.0%80.0%
Points per opportunity1.403.25
Three-and-out rate10.0%30.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
44.7%
Expected, given the spots
51.5%
Over expected
-6.8
Fourth down vs peers
+8
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Jacksonville State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Jacksonville State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Boston CollegeSP+ -7.4
Off EPA/play +0.102Def EPA/play +0.148Elo 1379
Match
98%
DukeSP+ +6.6
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.098Elo 1607
Match
98%
South FloridaSP+ -3.1
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.146Elo 1679
Match
98%
Eastern MichiganSP+ -15.6
Off EPA/play +0.041Def EPA/play +0.117Elo 1353
Match
97%
WyomingSP+ -15.2
Off EPA/play +0.071Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1300
Match
97%
San José StateSP+ -12.8
Off EPA/play +0.126Def EPA/play +0.175Elo 1413
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2023–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2023: -2.8, #77 of 1332024: -0.9, #73 of 1342025: -10.7, #99 of 1362026: -15.3, #129 of 138
20232026
Now -15.3 · #129 of 138Best -0.9 in 2024Worst -15.3 in 2026

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.0-0.0
20259-57-1
64%
9.0-0.0
20249-58-1
64%
9.3-0.3
20239-46-2
69%
7.6+1.4
20229-24-0
82%
8.1+0.9
20215-63-3
45%
0.2+4.8
202010-36-1
77%
1.0+9.0
20196-63-5
50%
——
20189-47-1
69%
——
201710-28-0
83%
0.0+10.0

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.0%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.5-6.6. Wins the Conference USA in 4.2%.

If they finish with…

6.6%
1 loss
0.2%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 6.6%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 2.7 points since preseason — lost 7-33 to North Dakota State against an expected margin of +30, so −55.7 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 6.6% where the average Conference USA team is 13%.
  • The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

Jacksonville State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk2at Ohio0.1
  • wk6at Kennesaw State0.1
  • wk13at Delaware0.1
  • wk11at Western Kentucky0.1
  • wk3vs Georgia Southern0.1
  • wk9at New Mexico State0.1

Who to root for

Games Jacksonville State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk3Eastern Michigan over Wisconsin0.1
  • wk13Charlotte over Navy0.1
  • wk2Delaware over Vanderbilt0.1
  • wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.1
  • wk2Colgate over Central Michigan0.1
  • wk3Tulane over Kansas State0.0
The full playoff picture →

Conference USA

0-0 in league play, projected 3.8-4.27 of 10 by title odds
4.2%
Wins the Conference USA
12%
Reaches the title game

The Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk13Jacksonville State at Delaware8.2
  • wk6Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State7.8
  • wk11Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky7.7
  • wk9Jacksonville State at New Mexico State7.2

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →

If not the playoff, then

49%
Bowl eligible
46%
Placed in a bowl
0.0%
In the playoff
54%
Season over in November

Jacksonville State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • New Orleans Bowl9.7%
  • Hawai'i Bowl9.3%
  • 68 Ventures Bowl8.8%
  • Xbox Bowl6.2%
  • Armed Forces Bowl4.7%
  • Boca Raton Bowl3.4%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.