Florida International vs. Jacksonville State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida International gets at Jacksonville State: 23rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 104th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Jacksonville State gets at Florida International: 52nd in the push up front, against a unit 124th at holding the line of scrimmage. Jacksonville State is also 56th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 119th.
How
FIUattacks
JXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FIU#23 of 138JXST#104 of 138
HowJXSTattacksFIU
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
JXST#52 of 138FIU#124 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
JXST#56 of 138FIU#119 of 138
The two teams
Florida International
Florida International is in year 2 under Willie Simmons. The strengths are offensive, led by 23rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 125th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 124th at holding the line of scrimmage.
Florida International has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#125projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#124projected
- Offensethrowing it#119projected
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is in year 2 under Charles Kelly. The way in is 104th at keeping everything in front of them.
Jacksonville State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#104projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1423, FIU Elo 1407 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -8.7 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FIU111th84thJXSTJXST69th23rdFIUThrough the air
FIU31st27thJXSTJXST80th9thFIUOn the ground
FIU125th121stJXSTJXST95th68thFIUStaying on the field
FIU119th57thJXSTJXST29th81stFIUTaking care of it
FIU95th30thJXSTJXST95th118thFIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FIU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#129) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -10 / +5 |
| 1.11 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 2.11 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 10% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Florida International vs. Jacksonville State?
Gridpex's model favors Jacksonville State with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida International vs. Jacksonville State?
The model projects Jacksonville State by 8.7.
What time is Florida International vs. Jacksonville State and what channel is it on?
Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 PM ET, at AmFirst Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →