Eastern Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EASTTeam statsJXST
- Q4 7:09JXSTJamill Williams 4 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–49
- Q3 6:03JXSTLuke Gilbert 24 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–42
- Q2 5:28JXSTJalen Likely 45 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–35
- Q2 9:45EASTBrady Hensley 72 Yd Run (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:27JXSTCaleb Nix 43 Yd Interception Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–28
- Q2 12:24JXSTJamill Williams 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:25JXSTJamill Williams 55 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:27JXSTJamill Williams 13 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- EAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.2
Jacksonville State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Caden Creel scored 30 of Jacksonville State's points. Jacksonville State (0-1) routs Eastern Kentucky, 49-7 at AmFirst Stadium. Jacksonville State led from start to finish and never let Eastern Kentucky within striking distance. Caden Creel threw for 327 yards on 28 attempts with five touchdowns and ran 10 times for 54 yards.
- PassTyler Travers 12/19, 90 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBrady Hensley 7 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraylon Newcomb 1 REC, 19 YDS
- PassCaden Creel 21/28, 327 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushJalen Likely 5 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamill Williams 7 REC, 144 YDS, 4 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State?
Eastern Kentucky 7, Jacksonville State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| EAST | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 526 |
| 90 | Passing yards | 352 |
| 195 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 16 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/19 | Comp/Att | 23/30 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-95 | Penalties | 5-49 |
| 33:27 | Possession | 26:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:01 EAST punt on 4th & 11 at JXST 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:09JXSTJamill Williams 4 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–49
- Q3 6:03JXSTLuke Gilbert 24 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–42
- Q2 5:28JXSTJalen Likely 45 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–35
- Q2 9:45EASTBrady Hensley 72 Yd Run (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:27JXSTCaleb Nix 43 Yd Interception Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–28
- Q2 12:24JXSTJamill Williams 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:25JXSTJamill Williams 55 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:27JXSTJamill Williams 13 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -25 (93% to win) — 2.5 points clear of JXST's market line of -22.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Caden Creel produced eight of Jacksonville State's eleven explosive plays
Jacksonville State was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Third down decided the possession count
Jacksonville State converted 10 of 12 third downs (83%) to Eastern Kentucky's 27%: Caden Creel (7/9) and Ronnel Johnson (2/2). Jacksonville State produced 11 plays of 15+ yards to Eastern Kentucky's 5, led by Caden Creel (involved in 8), Jamill Williams (involved in 2) and Ronnel Johnson (involved in 1). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Caden Creel threw for 327 yards on 28 attempts with five touchdowns and ran 10 times for 54 yards, including seven third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Jamill Williams caught seven passes for 144 yards, four of them for touchdowns. Ronnel Johnson caught three passes for 33 yards — two third-down conversions. For Eastern Kentucky, Brady Hensley ran seven times for 91 yards and one score. Tyler Travers threw for 90 yards on 19 attempts — two third-down conversions. Cortez Stone ran eight times for 58 yards and caught two passes for 7 yards. Ty Sims was the disruptive one for Jacksonville State: 1 INT.
What Eastern Kentucky has to fix
The problems had names: Tyler Travers (1 interception).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Ty Sims (1 INT) for Jacksonville State and Jack McGrath (0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 4.5 tackles) for Eastern Kentucky.
How it unfolded
Jacksonville State struck first through Jamill Williams, led 35-7 at the half and Jacksonville State got the final points on a late score by Jamill Williams.
How it graded
The closing line had Jacksonville State -22.5. Jacksonville State covered. The total was 51.5; the teams combined for 56, an over. Caden Creel accounted for 30 of Jacksonville State's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Jacksonville State cleared the bar with room to spare; Eastern Kentucky goes back to the drawing board. Brady Hensley was responsible for 6 of Eastern Kentucky's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →