Robert Morris vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Robert Morris

07

Air Force

▸0042

Final

Falcon Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ROBE	0	0	0	7	7
AF	14	14	7	7	42

ROBETeam statsAF

156Total yards469

113Pass95

43Rush374

9First downs24

3-113rd down6-10

2Turnovers1

27:49Possession32:11

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:35ROBEChaese Jackson 1 Yd pass from Anthony Chiccitt (Jayson Jenkins Kick)7–42
• Q4 13:33AFJensen Jones 7 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)0–42
• Q3 13:53AFZac Larrier 4 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–35
• Q2 1:58AFOwen Burk 27 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–28
• Q2 12:31AFJared Roznos 84 Yd pass from Zac Larrier (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:27AFZac Larrier 26 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:22AFCade Harris 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

AF −46.5

Against the number

ROBE covered

line AF −46.5

What the numbers say

• ROBE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 5.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

AF 100%50%ROBE 100%

Kickoff127 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

AF (top)ROBE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: AF 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

AF −46.5

Closing total

51.5

Model line

—

Actual result

ROBE 7 – 42 AF

Leaders

Robert Morris

• PassAnthony Chiccitt 14/18, 99 YDS, 1 TD
• RushKimon O'Sullivan 9 CAR, 39 YDS
• RecNoah Robinson 3 REC, 36 YDS

Air Force

• PassZac Larrier 2/3, 95 YDS, 1 TD
• RushZac Larrier 14 CAR, 99 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJared Roznos 2 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

32.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

109

Points / snap

0.45

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

AF up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 275 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

AF went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMiami (OH) vs Delaware State62-20WMaine vs Stony Brook56-28WMichigan vs Nebraska45-7WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa41-6WJames Madison vs Georgia Southern41-13

Fourth downs

11 calls

ROBE gave up 1.0 points to the model on fourth down.ROBE 3/6 · AF 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Robert Morris vs. Air Force?

Robert Morris 7, Air Force 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ROBE

AF

36%

Success rate

54%

0.18

EPA / pass

2.15

-0.30

EPA / rush

0.48

40%

Early-down success

54%

31%

Pass success

67%

42%

Rush success

54%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

52%

Pass rate

5%

9.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.5

ROBE

9.5 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

AF

5.5 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ROBE		AF
156	Total yards	469
113	Passing yards	95
43	Rushing yards	374
9	First downs	24
3-11	3rd down	6-10
0-1	4th down	1-3
18/24	Comp/Att	2/3
4.7	Yards per pass	31.7
1.7	Yards per rush	6.7
2	Turnovers	1
9-61	Penalties	2-10
27:49	Possession	32:11

Fourth downs

11 calls

ROBE

3/6 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

AF

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 8:32 ROBE punt on 4th & 2 at ROBE 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ROBE 1/10 scoring drives← own end zone →AF 6/10 scoring drives

ROBEFUM3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

AFTD5 pl, 26 yds· opp 26Q1

ROBEPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q1

AFTD9 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1

ROBEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

AFDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 36Q1

ROBEPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 45Q2

AFTD2 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

ROBEPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 27Q2

AFTD11 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2

ROBEEND4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2

AFTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

ROBEPUNT11 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q3

ROBEFUM6 pl, 0 yds· opp 15Q3

AFTD10 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q3

ROBETD6 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4

AFTD12 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q4

ROBEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 32Q4

AFEND3 pl, -6 yds· own 20Q4

AFEND3 pl, -6 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:35ROBEChaese Jackson 1 Yd pass from Anthony Chiccitt (Jayson Jenkins Kick)7–42
• Q4 13:33AFJensen Jones 7 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)0–42
• Q3 13:53AFZac Larrier 4 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–35
• Q2 1:58AFOwen Burk 27 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–28
• Q2 12:31AFJared Roznos 84 Yd pass from Zac Larrier (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:27AFZac Larrier 26 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:22AFCade Harris 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →