Alcorn State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALCOTeam statsUSM
- Q4 11:11USMRobert Henderson 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–49
- Q3 2:00USMSteven Robinson 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–42
- Q3 9:23USMJamarice Wilder 29 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–35
- Q3 11:12USMSteven Robinson 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:08USMJamarice Wilder 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–21
- Q2 10:55USMMario Sanders 38 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:29USMSteven Robinson 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:52ALCOKenyon Bowyer 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ALCO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.1
What actually decided Southern Miss's win over Alcorn State — beyond the final score.
Steven Robinson scored 18 of Southern Miss's points. Southern Miss routs Alcorn State, 49-3 at M. M. Roberts Stadium. Alcorn State scored first, and Southern Miss answered by taking the game over. Steven Robinson ran 23 times for 123 yards and three scores.
- PassJaylon Tolbert 15/22, 119 YDS, 4 INT
- RushJoshua Tate 8 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecTyree Kelly 3 REC, 39 YDS
- PassEthan Hampton 13/23, 180 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSteven Robinson 23 CAR, 123 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMario Sanders 6 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Alcorn State vs. Southern Miss?
Alcorn State 3, Southern Miss 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USM) was correct.
| ALCO | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 223 | Total yards | 543 |
| 119 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 317 |
| 11 | First downs | 32 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 15/27 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 28:39 | Possession | 31:21 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:02 ALCO punt on 4th & 1 at ALCO 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:11USMRobert Henderson 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–49
- Q3 2:00USMSteven Robinson 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–42
- Q3 9:23USMJamarice Wilder 29 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–35
- Q3 11:12USMSteven Robinson 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:08USMJamarice Wilder 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–21
- Q2 10:55USMMario Sanders 38 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:29USMSteven Robinson 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:52ALCOKenyon Bowyer 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects USM -32.9 (97% to win) — 12.9 points clear of USM's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Ethan Hampton produced six of Southern Miss's eight explosive plays
What actually decided Southern Miss's win over Alcorn State — beyond the final score.
The turnover battle was the game
Southern Miss won the turnover battle 2-5, chiefly Kobi Albert (3 INTs, 1 tackle), Jonah Martinez (1 INT) and Melvin Spriggs (0.5 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 4.5 tackles). Southern Miss scored on 58% of its drives to Alcorn State's 8%, chiefly Steven Robinson (18 pts), Jamarice Wilder (12 pts) and Ethan Hampton (6 pts). Stacked together, that is what turned a close game into this one.
The standouts
Steven Robinson ran 23 times for 123 yards and three scores — three of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Jamarice Wilder ran 14 times for 90 yards and two scores — that score from inside the 20. Ethan Hampton threw for 180 yards on 23 attempts with one touchdown and ran three times for 15 yards, including a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. For Alcorn State, Tyree Kelly caught three passes for 39 yards — two third-down conversions. Malachi Augustus caught one pass for 35 yards. Fred Robertson ran eight times for 13 yards. Kobi Albert was the disruptive one for Southern Miss: 3 INTs, 1 tackle.
What Alcorn State has to fix
The problems had names: Jaylon Tolbert (4 interceptions) and Bryan Wilson (1 lost fumble).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep, all for Southern Miss: Kobi Albert (3 INTs, 1 tackle) and Jonah Martinez (1 INT).
How it unfolded
Alcorn State struck first through Kenyon Bowyer, Southern Miss led 21-3 at the half and got the final points on a late touchdown by Robert Henderson.
How it graded
The closing line had Southern Miss -19.5. Southern Miss covered. The total was 51.5; the teams combined for 52, an over. Steven Robinson accounted for 18 of Southern Miss's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Southern Miss cleared the bar with room to spare; Alcorn State goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →