Louisiana Tech vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsJXST
- Q3 5:53JXSTAnwar Lewis 9 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)17–56
- Q3 8:40JXSTZion Webb 29 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)17–49
- Q3 14:21LTMichael Richard 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Buck Buchanan Kick)17–42
- Q2 0:00LTBuck Buchanan 33 Yd Field Goal 10–42
- Q2 1:53JXSTZion Webb 8 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–42
- Q2 7:32JXSTZion Webb 34 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–35
- Q2 10:41JXSTRon Wiggins 13 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–28
- Q1 4:30LTCyrus Allen 31 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jacob Barnes Kick)7–21
- Q1 5:59JXSTMalik Jackson 13 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:44JXSTKekoura Tarnue 21 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alen Karajic Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:44JXSTMalik Jackson 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassHank Bachmeier 24/37, 198 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushHank Bachmeier 4 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecSmoke Harris 9 REC, 61 YDS
- PassZion Webb 6/17, 106 YDS
- RushMalik Jackson 9 CAR, 193 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSean Brown 1 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 216 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:44JXST +10%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)
- Q1 8:44JXST +6%
Kekoura Tarnue 21 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alen Karajic Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Jacksonville State?
Louisiana Tech 17, Jacksonville State 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| LT | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 269 | Total yards | 628 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 106 |
| 44 | Rushing yards | 522 |
| 17 | First downs | 29 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 27/46 | Comp/Att | 6/18 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 8.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 29:12 | Possession | 30:48 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:13 JXST go for it on 4th & 12 at LT 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 5:53JXSTAnwar Lewis 9 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)17–56
- Q3 8:40JXSTZion Webb 29 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)17–49
- Q3 14:21LTMichael Richard 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Buck Buchanan Kick)17–42
- Q2 0:00LTBuck Buchanan 33 Yd Field Goal 10–42
- Q2 1:53JXSTZion Webb 8 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–42
- Q2 7:32JXSTZion Webb 34 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–35
- Q2 10:41JXSTRon Wiggins 13 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–28
- Q1 4:30LTCyrus Allen 31 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jacob Barnes Kick)7–21
- Q1 5:59JXSTMalik Jackson 13 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:44JXSTKekoura Tarnue 21 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alen Karajic Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:44JXSTMalik Jackson 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1490, LT Elo 1192 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -14.3 (83% to win) — 5.3 points clear of JXST's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LT | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.9 (#112) | CORE overall | -2.8 (#77) |
| -7 / +9 | offense / defense | -10 / -8 |
| 1.82 | points / drive | 1.97 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 1.43 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →