Western Illinois vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Western Illinois

0015

Northern Illinois

▸0054

Final

Huskie Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WEST	3	0	5	7	15
NIU	6	28	13	7	54

WESTTeam statsNIU

298Total yards706

204Pass394

94Rush312

17First downs30

3-123rd down7-8

0Turnovers1

28:26Possession31:34

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:59WESTTorrance Farmer Jr. 27 Yd pass from Nathan Lamb (Antonio Chadha Kick)15–54
• Q4 8:00NIUJalen Macon 5 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)8–54
• Q3 1:39WESTAntonio Chadha 46 Yd Field Goal 8–47
• Q3 4:22WESTFredrik Greenhoward Defensive PAT Conversion3–41
• Q3 4:22NIUJaylen Poe 7 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill PAT blocked)3–47
• Q3 13:28NIUGrayson Barnes 60 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–41
• Q2 0:40NIUTrayvon Rudolph 43 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–34
• Q2 1:55NIUKeyshaun Pipkin 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–27
• Q2 8:47NIUTrayvon Rudolph 60 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–20
• Q2 12:36NIUCam Thompson 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–13
• Q1 0:51WESTAntonio Chadha 44 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q1 12:21NIUDane Pardridge 23 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill PAT failed)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

NIU −36.5

Against the number

NIU covered

line NIU −36.5

What the numbers say

• WEST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NIU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 4.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NIU 100%50%WEST 100%

Kickoff143 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NIU (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NIU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NIU −36.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WEST 15 – 54 NIU

Leaders

Western Illinois

• PassNathan Lamb 17/29, 204 YDS, 1 TD
• RushCameren Smith 14 CAR, 51 YDS
• RecTristin Duncan 5 REC, 68 YDS

Northern Illinois

• PassEthan Hampton 18/20, 328 YDS, 5 TD
• RushAntario Brown 8 CAR, 69 YDS
• RecTrayvon Rudolph 4 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

128

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NIU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 215 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NIU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs East Tennessee State49-3WSouthern Illinois vs Austin Peay49-23WOhio State vs Western Kentucky63-10WJacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech56-17WOregon vs Arizona State49-13

Fourth downs

10 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.WEST 9/9 · NIU 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Northern Illinois?

Western Illinois 15, Northern Illinois 54.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEST

NIU

31%

Success rate

70%

0.16

EPA / pass

1.00

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.46

33%

Early-down success

68%

37%

Pass success

72%

25%

Rush success

68%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

14%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

52%

Pass rate

41%

9.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.1

WEST

9.0 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

NIU

4.1 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEST		NIU
298	Total yards	706
204	Passing yards	394
94	Rushing yards	312
17	First downs	30
3-12	3rd down	7-8
0-0	4th down	0-0
17/29	Comp/Att	23/29
7.0	Yards per pass	13.6
3.2	Yards per rush	7.6
0	Turnovers	1
5-43	Penalties	3-25
28:26	Possession	31:34

Fourth downs

10 calls

WEST

9/9 with the model

nothing given up

NIU

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (10)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEST 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NIU 8/11 scoring drives

WESTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 18Q1

NIUTD2 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q1

WESTMISS11 pl, 46 yds· own 33Q1

NIUFUM5 pl, 67 yds· own 21Q1

WESTFG11 pl, 61 yds· own 12Q1

NIUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

WESTPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 7Q2

NIUTD1 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

WESTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 29Q2

NIUTD9 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2

WESTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q2

NIUTD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

WESTEND1 pl, -3 yds· own 24Q2

NIUTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

WESTPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 31Q3

NIUTD14 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q3

WESTFG8 pl, 50 yds· own 22Q3

NIUPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3

WESTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q4

NIUTD12 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q4

WESTTD9 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q4

NIUEND7 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:59WESTTorrance Farmer Jr. 27 Yd pass from Nathan Lamb (Antonio Chadha Kick)15–54
• Q4 8:00NIUJalen Macon 5 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)8–54
• Q3 1:39WESTAntonio Chadha 46 Yd Field Goal 8–47
• Q3 4:22WESTFredrik Greenhoward Defensive PAT Conversion3–41
• Q3 4:22NIUJaylen Poe 7 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill PAT blocked)3–47
• Q3 13:28NIUGrayson Barnes 60 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–41
• Q2 0:40NIUTrayvon Rudolph 43 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–34
• Q2 1:55NIUKeyshaun Pipkin 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–27
• Q2 8:47NIUTrayvon Rudolph 60 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–20
• Q2 12:36NIUCam Thompson 11 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)3–13
• Q1 0:51WESTAntonio Chadha 44 Yd Field Goal 3–6
• Q1 12:21NIUDane Pardridge 23 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill PAT failed)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →