Western Kentucky vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsOSU
- Q4 5:26OSUJermaine Mathews Jr. 58 Yd Interception Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–63
- Q4 12:37OSUCarnell Tate 28 Yd pass from Devin Brown (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–56
- Q3 4:38OSUTyleik Williams 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:08OSUEmeka Egbuka 14 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–42
- Q2 1:55OSUEmeka Egbuka 15 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–35
- Q2 4:13OSUChip Trayanum 40 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–28
- Q2 8:00OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 75 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–21
- Q2 8:10WKUMalachi Corley 2 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:53OSUTreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–14
- Q1 1:07WKULucas Carneiro 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:32OSUTreVeyon Henderson 21 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAustin Reed 21/37, 207 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLT Sanders 7 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecMalachi Corley 8 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKyle McCord 19/23, 318 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTreVeyon Henderson 13 CAR, 88 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarvin Harrison Jr. 5 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 216 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:00OSU +12%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q2 8:10WKU +11%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 11:32OSU +10%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 21 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q2 10:53OSU +9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q2 4:13OSU +5%
Chip Trayanum run for 40 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Ohio State?
Western Kentucky 10, Ohio State 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| WKU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 284 | Total yards | 562 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 358 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 204 |
| 15 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/39 | Comp/Att | 22/27 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 13.3 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-24 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 32:34 | Possession | 27:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:45 OSU punt on 4th & 6 at WKU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:26OSUJermaine Mathews Jr. 58 Yd Interception Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–63
- Q4 12:37OSUCarnell Tate 28 Yd pass from Devin Brown (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–56
- Q3 4:38OSUTyleik Williams 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–49
- Q2 0:08OSUEmeka Egbuka 14 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–42
- Q2 1:55OSUEmeka Egbuka 15 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–35
- Q2 4:13OSUChip Trayanum 40 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–28
- Q2 8:00OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 75 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–21
- Q2 8:10WKUMalachi Corley 2 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:53OSUTreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)3–14
- Q1 1:07WKULucas Carneiro 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:32OSUTreVeyon Henderson 21 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1903, WKU Elo 1632 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -13.2 (81% to win) — 16.3 points clear of WKU's market line of -29.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.6 (#85) | CORE overall | +36.4 (#2) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | +15 / -21 |
| 2.17 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 0.98 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →