Charles Kelly

Jacksonville State · 2026 · 3 graded games · 16 of 138 FBS staffs

+3.0points of win probability, ±3.7 · +1.0 a game

Play calling+1.0

1st down −0.52nd down +0.43rd down +0.6Red zone +0.5

Passing strategy+0.8

Depth −0.13rd-down sticks +0.9

4th down & 2-point+3.2

4th downs +3.22-point 0.0

Clock & timeouts−2.4

Tempo −1.7Timeouts +0.1

Personnel usage+0.3

Operations+0.2

Fourth downs: chose the option priced best on 8 of 14, and made 1 bold call — against what most staffs do, and right to.

Third down, 4+ to go: 1 throws short of the sticks, 2 past them.

What kept showing up

slow tempo while trailing late · 1 game

Graded at the snap against what most staffs do in the same spot, with the pregame spread built in. A good call that fails still grades as good. Which play was called, and defensive calls, are not graded.

Best call of the season

Week 1, at North Dakota State

1:42 Q2 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 12, down 3: went for it

What happened: stopped short

+1.2

Costliest call of the season

Week 2, at Ohio

1:28 Q4 · leading late, 1 snap with the clock running: 0s between snaps on average

−1.7

Game by game

Week	Game · biggest call	Total	4th	Run/pass	Clock	Ops
2	at Ohio L 27–29 leading late, 1 snap with the clock running: 0s between snaps on average −1.7	+0.9	+0.8	+0.6	−1.5	+0.4
1	at North Dakota State L 7–33 4th & 1 at the opponent's 12, down 3: went for it +1.2 · stopped short	+1.7	+2.1	+0.4	−1.0	−0.3
1	vs Eastern Kentucky W 49–7	+0.5	+0.2	0.0	+0.2	0.0

3 games is a handful of decisions, and one call can move a season total. The ± above is what that uncertainty amounts to. Every staff, week by week

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