College Football Coaching Decisions, Graded

AnalysisAll college football →

Win probability each staff’s calls added or cost against what most staffs do in the same spot. Graded at the snap against what most staffs do in the same spot, with the pregame spread built in. A good call that fails still grades as good. Which play was called, and defensive calls, are not graded.

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Week12

Week 2, answered

Manny Diaz (Duke)’s calls added the most win probability, +5.9 at Illinois · W 31–27. Kirk Ferentz (Iowa)’s cost the most, −7.0 vs Iowa State · W 16–13.

Best calls of week 2

Rob Harley Northern Illinois vs Illinois State · L 24–28
8:34 Q3 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 9, down 4: went for it
What happened: stopped short
+2.2
Tosh Lupoi California at Syracuse · W 21–18
12:53 Q3 · 4th & 3 at own 48, down 4: went for it
What happened: stopped short
+2.1
Rob Harley Northern Illinois vs Illinois State · L 24–28
0:00 Q2 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 2, down 11: went for it
What happened: converted
+2.0
Bret Bielema Illinois vs Duke · L 27–31
2:54 Q4 · 4th & 4 at own 38, down 4: went for it
What happened: stopped short
+2.0
Jeff Monken Army vs South Florida · L 24–28
0:24 Q2 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 22, tied: went for it
What happened: converted
+2.0

Costliest calls of week 2

Matt Drinkall Central Michigan vs Colgate · W 13–10
2:41 Q4 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 32, up 3: punted
What happened: punted 26 yards
−9.9
Kirk Ferentz Iowa vs Iowa State · W 16–13
6:22 Q4 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 14, down 3: kicked the field goal
What happened: 31-yard field goal good
−6.9
Tosh Lupoi California at Syracuse · W 21–18
1:14 Q4 · leading late, 2 snaps with the clock running: 12s between snaps on average
−4.2
Jamey Chadwell Liberty vs Gardner-Webb · W 24–23
4:32 Q4 · trailing late, 3 snaps with the clock running: 33s between snaps on average
−4.1
Major Applewhite South Alabama at Tulane · L 24–28
5:31 Q2 · 4th & 1 at midfield, up 3: punted
What happened: punted 45 yards
−3.9

Week 2: every FBS staff, best calls to worst

#	Coach · biggest call	Total	Play calling	Passing	4th & 2-pt	Clock	Usage	Ops
1	Manny Diaz Duke at Illinois · W 31–27 1:49 Q4 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 29, up 4: went for it +1.7 · converted	+5.9 ±3.9	+0.8 3rd +0.1	+0.9 deep 6% / 12%	+2.7 4/6 best	+0.9	+0.3	+0.5
2	Alex Mortensen UAB vs UL Monroe · W 26–20 10:54 Q1 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 43, tied: went for it +1.0 · stopped short slow tempo while trailing late	+5.9 ±7.3	+2.7 3rd +0.7	+2.6 deep 8% / 15%	+0.8 3/5 best	−0.6	+0.5	−0.2
3	Ryan Day Ohio State at Texas · L 23–24 13:23 Q2 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 13, up 10: went for it +1.2 · stopped short	+5.6 ±2.5	+0.5 3rd +0.5	+2.6 deep 22% / 10%	+1.0 6/8 best	0.0	+1.0	+0.5
4	Jake Dickert Wake Forest at Purdue · W 38–36	+4.5 ±4.8	−0.8 3rd −0.3	+3.2 deep 9% / 13%	0.0 1/5 best	−0.1	+1.3	+0.7
5	Brent Venables Oklahoma at Michigan · L 10–17 4:43 Q4 · trailing late, 2 snaps with the clock running: 36s between snaps on average −1.1 slow tempo while trailing late	+4.5 ±4.2	0.0 3rd +0.1	+3.8 deep 19% / 16%	+0.5 4/8 best	−1.4	+0.8	+0.7
6	Derek Mason Middle Tennessee at Marshall · L 26–28 1:42 Q1 · 3rd & 5 at the opponent's 35: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −1.9	+4.2 ±4.6	+5.3 3rd +0.7	+1.2 deep 10% / 15%	−0.2 5/9 best	−0.7	−0.3	−1.1
7	Bob Chesney UCLA vs San Diego State · W 28–10 2:08 Q2 · 4th & 7 at the opponent's 36, tied: went for it +0.7 · stopped short	+3.4 ±2.0	+1.8 3rd +0.2	+0.8 deep 14% / 13%	+0.7 4/5 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.3
8	Spencer Danielson Boise State vs Memphis · W 38–20 12:26 Q2 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 2, down 10: went for it +1.1 · stopped short the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	+3.3 ±3.2	+2.0 3rd +0.3	−0.2 deep 13% / 13%	+1.4 6/7 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.4
9	Barry Odom Purdue vs Wake Forest · L 36–38	+3.0 ±8.6	+1.5 3rd −0.4	−1.3 deep 4% / 15%	−0.3 2/6 best	+0.2	+1.7	+1.3
10	Jeff Traylor UTSA at Texas State · W 31–26 4:02 Q4 · trailing late, 6 snaps with the clock running: 23s between snaps on average −1.4 slow tempo while trailing late the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	+2.7 ±5.5	+1.0 3rd −0.7	+2.0 deep 17% / 15%	−0.2 8/12 best	−1.2	+0.3	+0.7
11	Lance Leipold Kansas vs Missouri · L 21–38 4:24 Q1 · 4th & 1 at own 35, tied: went for it +1.7 · converted	+2.5 ±1.9	+0.1 3rd −0.1	−1.8 deep 11% / 15%	+3.8 6/8 best	−0.1	+0.1	+0.5
12	Greg Schiano Rutgers at Boston College · L 21–28 13:08 Q1 · 4th & 1 at own 34, tied: went for it +1.6 · stopped short 7 carries past a back's 20th, where efficiency measurably drops	+2.4 ±3.1	−0.4 3rd −0.1	−0.9 deep 5% / 14%	+4.0 7/7 best	+0.2	−0.9	+0.5
13	Sean Lewis San Diego State at UCLA · L 10–28 13:11 Q4 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 28, down 7: kicked the field goal −0.5 · 45-yard field goal good	+2.1 ±2.0	+1.2 3rd +0.1	+0.3 deep 42% / 13%	−0.6 5/9 best	+0.2	+0.7	+0.3
14	Mark Carney Kent State vs Wofford · W 36–15	+2.0 ±3.3	+0.5 3rd 0.0	+1.1 deep 21% / 15%	+0.4 3/5 best	+0.2	−0.7	+0.5
15	Jeff Choate Nevada vs Montana State · L 7–20 9:25 Q1 · 4th & 5 at the opponent's 43, down 7: went for it +1.1 · stopped short finished with 2 timeouts while the clock ran	+1.9 ±1.8	+0.5 3rd 0.0	+0.1 deep 14% / 15%	+1.6 4/8 best	−0.5	0.0	+0.3
16	Kyle Whittingham Michigan vs Oklahoma · W 17–10 6:32 Q3 · 4th & 1 at own 33, up 3: went for it +1.6 · converted	+1.9 ±3.8	+0.9 3rd +0.5	−1.4 deep 12% / 14%	+1.9 5/9 best	−0.3	+0.2	+0.6
17	Steve Sarkisian Texas vs Ohio State · W 24–23 3:38 Q4 · trailing late, 4 snaps with the clock running: 28s between snaps on average −1.4 slow tempo while trailing late	+1.9 ±2.1	−0.3 3rd +0.1	+0.9 deep 20% / 14%	+2.2 5/7 best	−2.0	+0.3	+0.8
18	Brian Newberry Navy at Florida Atlantic · L 30–38	+1.7 ±2.0	+1.0 3rd +0.2	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.3 7/8 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.2
19	Bill O'Brien Boston College vs Rutgers · W 28–21 11:18 Q1 · 4th & 3 at the opponent's 27, tied: went for it +1.2 · converted slow tempo while trailing late	+1.6 ±2.0	−0.1 3rd −0.1	+1.2 deep 14% / 12%	+1.1 5/5 best	−1.1	0.0	+0.4
20	Will Stein Kentucky vs Alabama · L 17–45 0:29 Q2 · 4th & 7 at the opponent's 43, up 1: went for it +1.6 · fumbled	+1.1 ±2.0	−0.2 3rd −0.6	−1.3 deep 0% / 13%	+2.6 7/10 best	−0.1	−0.4	+0.5
21	Josh Heupel Tennessee at Georgia Tech · W 45–24 2:43 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 24, down 3: went for it +1.0 · converted	+1.1 ±1.1	−0.2 3rd −0.1	+0.4 deep 25% / 12%	+1.0 4/5 best	−0.1	−0.3	+0.2
22	Willie Simmons Florida International vs Buffalo · W 33–20 the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	+1.1 ±0.9	+0.3 3rd +0.1	+0.6 deep 17% / 12%	0.0 6/8 best	−0.1	+0.1	+0.2
23	Clark Lea Vanderbilt vs Delaware · W 35–26 2:53 Q1 · 1st & 1 at the opponent's 1: Illegal Substitution, 5 yards −0.5 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+1.0 ±0.7	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.8 deep 21% / 13%	+0.4 7/9 best	+0.7	−0.1	−0.7
24	Jimmy Rogers Iowa State at Iowa · L 13–16 11:17 Q3 · 2nd & 24 at the opponent's 33: Illegal Substitution, 5 yards −1.6	+1.0 ±4.2	+0.3 3rd −0.1	+1.3 deep 18% / 10%	−0.2 4/9 best	−0.1	+0.8	−1.0
25	Dowell Loggains App State at East Carolina · W 27–24 2:06 Q4 · leading late, 2 snaps with the clock running: 4s between snaps on average −0.5 slow tempo while trailing late	+0.9 ±2.2	+0.1 3rd +0.1	+1.7 deep 13% / 15%	−0.5 6/9 best	−0.6	−0.4	+0.7
26	Pete Lembo Buffalo at Florida International · L 20–33	+0.9 ±0.4	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.5 deep 26% / 13%	+0.6 7/12 best	−0.5	+0.2	+0.2
27	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State at Ohio · L 27–29 1:28 Q4 · leading late, 1 snap with the clock running: 0s between snaps on average −1.7 slow tempo while trailing late	+0.9 ±3.3	+0.6 3rd +0.4	+0.4 deep 6% / 15%	+0.8 3/4 best	−1.5	+0.2	+0.4
28	JaMarcus Shephard Oregon State vs Texas Tech · L 24–35 3 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+0.8 ±2.0	+0.6 3rd +0.1	+0.2 deep 19% / 13%	+0.1 4/11 best	+0.2	0.0	−0.3
29	Eli Drinkwitz Missouri at Kansas · W 38–21 8 carries past a back's 20th, where efficiency measurably drops	+0.8 ±2.4	−0.6 3rd −0.1	+2.3 deep 21% / 14%	−0.4 6/8 best	+0.2	−1.2	+0.5
30	Tim Polasek North Dakota State at Air Force · W 38–32	+0.8 ±2.0	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 15% / 14%	+1.2 6/7 best	−1.1	+0.6	+0.3
31	Rob Harley Northern Illinois vs Illinois State · L 24–28 8:34 Q3 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 9, down 4: went for it +2.2 · stopped short 4 third-down throws short of the sticks slow tempo while trailing late	+0.8 ±2.3	+1.0 3rd −0.1	−1.6 deep 7% / 13%	+3.5 5/8 best	−0.9	−1.9	+0.7
32	Bronco Mendenhall Utah State at Washington · L 14–16 0:40 Q4 · trailing late with no timeouts, 7 calls: 2 runs with the clock running and no way to stop it +0.7	+0.7 ±1.2	+0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.3 deep 10% / 14%	+0.4 5/7 best	+0.3	0.0	+0.2
33	Mike Elko Texas A&M vs Arizona State · W 48–20 10:44 Q2 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 21, tied: went for it +0.6 · converted	+0.7 ±1.9	+0.2 3rd +0.1	0.0 deep 19% / 11%	+0.3 5/8 best	+0.2	−0.3	+0.2
34	Major Applewhite South Alabama at Tulane · L 24–28 5:31 Q2 · 4th & 1 at midfield, up 3: punted −3.9 · punted 45 yards	+0.6 ±5.1	+0.6 3rd +0.8	+1.4 deep 8% / 12%	−1.7 5/7 best	+0.2	−0.6	+0.8
35	Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic vs Navy · W 38–30 1:42 Q4 · leading late, 4 snaps with the clock running: 3s between snaps on average −2.7 slow tempo while trailing late	+0.6 ±3.0	+1.1 3rd −0.1	−1.2 deep 20% / 14%	+3.1 5/5 best	−2.8	+0.1	+0.3
36	Morgan Scalley Utah vs Arkansas · W 43–10 4:08 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 5, down 3: went for it +1.4 · converted 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+0.5 ±1.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 18% / 16%	+1.7 3/4 best	+0.2	−0.2	−1.1
37	Joey McGuire Texas Tech at Oregon State · W 35–24	+0.5 ±0.5	0.0 3rd −0.1	−0.1 deep 5% / 15%	+0.1 7/8 best	+0.2	+0.2	+0.2
38	Dabo Swinney Clemson vs Georgia Southern · W 22–7 6:43 Q4 · 3rd & 6 at the opponent's 27: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −0.8	+0.5 ±0.8	0.0 3rd 0.0	+1.4 deep 21% / 13%	0.0 9/11 best	−0.3	+0.1	−0.6
39	Mike Locksley Maryland at UConn · W 38–14 0:04 Q2 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 1, up 7: kicked the field goal −1.4 · 18-yard field goal good	+0.5 ±2.9	+0.2 3rd 0.0	+1.6 deep 7% / 14%	−1.1 5/7 best	−0.1	−0.5	+0.3
40	Ken Niumatalolo San José State vs Cal Poly · W 30–20 7 carries past a back's 20th, where efficiency measurably drops	+0.4 ±1.4	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.8 deep 30% / 15%	−0.2 5/8 best	−0.1	−0.4	+0.3
41	K.C. Keeler Temple vs Penn State · L 9–27	+0.4 ±0.8	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.1 deep 0% / 13%	−0.1 6/8 best	+0.2	+0.3	0.0
42	Matt Rhule Nebraska vs Bowling Green · W 56–7	+0.3 ±0.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 3/3 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
43	Scott Frost UCF at Pittsburgh · L 7–12 13:36 Q3 · 4th & 3 at midfield, down 12: went for it +0.6 · stopped short 4 third-down throws short of the sticks 3 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+0.3 ±1.8	+0.2 3rd +0.1	−0.3 deep 5% / 15%	+0.5 4/9 best	−0.2	+0.3	−0.1
44	Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech at LSU · L 14–45	+0.3 ±0.2	0.0	—	+0.3 9/9 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
45	Sonny Dykes TCU vs Grambling · W 63–7	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 3/5 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
46	Joe Moorhead Akron vs Robert Morris · W 45–10	+0.2 ±0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 4/4 best	+0.2	−0.1	+0.1
47	Jon Sumrall Florida vs Campbell · W 52–3	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 3/5 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
48	Mike Jacobs Toledo vs Central Connecticut · W 63–10	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 3/4 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
49	Pete Golding Ole Miss vs Charlotte · W 41–9	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 2/3 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
50	Shane Beamer South Carolina vs Towson · W 45–9	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 4/7 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
51	Eddie George Bowling Green at Nebraska · L 7–56	+0.2 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 5/8 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
52	Dave Aranda Baylor vs Prairie View A&M · W 44–3	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 3/6 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
53	Jason Eck New Mexico vs Mercyhurst · W 70–7	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 5/7 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
54	Tim Albin Charlotte at Ole Miss · L 9–41	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 5/9 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
55	Willie Fritz Houston vs Southern · W 77–6	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 0/0 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
56	Chuck Martin Miami (OH) vs Holy Cross · W 45–7	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 1/2 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
57	Scott Satterfield Cincinnati vs Western Carolina · W 62–10	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 2/3 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
58	Billy Napier James Madison vs Wagner · W 87–3	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/3 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
59	Jeff Brohm Louisville vs Villanova · W 59–13	+0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 0/3 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
60	Gerad Parker Troy vs Alabama State · W 34–17	+0.1 ±0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.2 8/11 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.1
61	James Franklin Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion · W 44–21	+0.1 ±0.3	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 7% / 13%	+0.2 6/8 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
62	Michael Desormeaux Louisiana at USC · L 30–49	+0.1 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	−0.1 3/6 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
63	Scotty Walden UTEP vs Texas Southern · W 51–10	+0.1 ±0.3	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.2 4/5 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
64	Ricky Rahne Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · L 21–44	+0.1 ±0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 4/10 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
65	Lincoln Riley USC vs Louisiana · W 49–30	0.0 ±0.1	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/2 best	+0.2	−0.1	0.0
66	Alex Golesh Auburn vs Southern Miss · W 43–8	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	—	+0.1 6/8 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
67	Blake Anderson Southern Miss at Auburn · L 8–43	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 7/8 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
68	Mario Cristobal Miami vs Florida A&M · W 77–7	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 0/1 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
69	Dave Doeren NC State vs Richmond · W 73–0	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/2 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
70	Rhett Lashlee SMU vs UC Davis · W 56–10	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 4/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
71	Tyson Helton Western Kentucky at Georgia · L 20–70	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 4/10 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
72	Rich Rodriguez West Virginia vs UT Martin · W 52–7	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/3 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
73	Brent Key Georgia Tech vs Tennessee · L 24–45 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	−0.1 ±1.1	+0.6 3rd +0.1	−0.4 deep 9% / 15%	−0.3 2/6 best	−0.3	+0.1	+0.2
74	Brent Brennan Arizona at BYU · L 17–28 0:01 Q3 · 4th & 10 at the opponent's 36, down 4: punted −2.1 · punted 36 yards 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	−0.1 ±5.0	0.0 3rd +0.1	+2.7 deep 17% / 15%	−1.1 1/6 best	−0.8	−0.3	−0.5
75	Deion Sanders Colorado vs Weber State · W 52–21 4 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 6/7 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
76	Luke Fickell Wisconsin vs Western Illinois · W 36–9	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 2/6 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
77	Jim Mora Colorado State vs Southern Utah · W 58–24	−0.1 ±0.4	+0.1 3rd 0.0	+0.1 deep 24% / 13%	−0.1 3/6 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.1
78	Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh vs UCF · W 12–7 12:47 Q1 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 46, tied: went for it +1.3 · stopped short	−0.1 ±1.9	0.0 3rd +0.1	+0.1 deep 8% / 12%	+0.3 5/12 best	−0.3	−0.6	+0.4
79	Kirby Moore Washington State at Kansas State · L 7–34	−0.2 ±0.7	+0.2 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	−0.4 5/10 best	+0.2	−0.2	+0.1
80	Matt Entz Fresno State vs Sacramento State · W 49–3 4:35 Q1 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 45, tied: punted −0.6 · punted 42 yards	−0.2 ±0.4	+0.2 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 11% / 13%	−0.5 3/4 best	+0.2	−0.1	+0.1
81	Lance Taylor Western Michigan vs Monmouth · W 49–14	−0.2 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 3/5 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
82	Pat Fitzgerald Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan · W 35–7	−0.2 ±0.3	−0.1 3rd −0.1	−0.1 deep 0% / 13%	+0.8 5/6 best	−1.0	0.0	+0.1
83	Kirby Smart Georgia vs Western Kentucky · W 70–20	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/4 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
84	Bill Belichick North Carolina vs East Tennessee State · W 35–3	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 1/3 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
85	Butch Jones Arkansas State vs West Georgia · W 52–7	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 1/3 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
86	Ryan Beard Coastal Carolina vs Fordham · W 45–7	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 2/7 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
87	Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts vs Sacred Heart · W 37–10	−0.4 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 3/6 best	−0.3	0.0	−0.1
88	Phil Longo Sam Houston vs Tulsa · L 17–23 1:13 Q2 · 4th & 1 at own 33, up 4: punted −1.6 · punted 67 yards 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	−0.4 ±2.2	−0.2 3rd 0.0	−0.3 deep 7% / 15%	−1.9 4/7 best	+1.3	−0.1	+0.8
89	Marcus Freeman Notre Dame vs Rice · W 52–0	−0.5 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 3/4 best	−0.5	0.0	0.0
90	Lane Kiffin LSU vs Louisiana Tech · W 45–14	−0.5 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 3/7 best	−0.5	0.0	+0.1
91	Mike Uremovich Ball State vs Stony Brook · W 41–17	−0.6 ±0.7	−0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.2 deep 20% / 11%	+0.1 5/7 best	−0.1	−0.4	+0.1
92	Matt Campbell Penn State at Temple · W 27–9 10:00 Q1 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 38, tied: punted −0.8 · punted 35 yards	−0.6 ±0.4	−0.1 3rd −0.1	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	−0.7 2/5 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.1
93	Alonzo Carter Sacramento State at Fresno State · L 3–49 7:36 Q1 · 4th & 1 at own 40, tied: punted −0.9 · punted 49 yards	−0.6 ±0.2	+0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.1 deep 0% / 12%	−0.4 9/11 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.1
94	Ryan Carty Delaware at Vanderbilt · L 26–35	−0.7 ±0.8	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.3 deep 12% / 11%	0.0 9/11 best	−0.5	−0.2	+0.2
95	Neal Brown North Texas vs UNLV · W 44–6	−0.9 ±1.4	−0.7 3rd −0.1	−0.5 deep 6% / 11%	+0.1 5/6 best	+0.2	+0.1	0.0
96	Clay Helton Georgia Southern at Clemson · L 7–22 6 third-down throws short of the sticks	−0.9 ±1.1	−0.5 3rd 0.0	−0.7 deep 15% / 14%	+0.2 8/13 best	−0.1	+0.1	+0.1
97	Jay Sawvel Wyoming vs Northern Colorado · W 21–13 0:25 Q2 · ball at own 25, 3 timeout(s), down 3: knelt −1.1 slow tempo while trailing late	−0.9 ±3.9	−0.1 3rd 0.0	+0.8 deep 18% / 14%	−0.6 3/5 best	−1.5	0.0	+0.5
98	Tony Elliott Virginia vs Norfolk State · W 59–3	−1.0 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 3/4 best	−1.0	0.0	0.0
99	Curt Cignetti Indiana vs Howard · W 55–0	−1.0 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 3/3 best	−1.0	0.0	0.0
100	Scott Abell Rice at Notre Dame · L 0–52	−1.0 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 8/8 best	−1.0	0.0	0.0
101	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State at Hawai'i · L 19–29 11:16 Q4 · 4th & 1 at own 46, down 3: went for it +1.1 · stopped short the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	−1.1 ±1.9	−0.2 3rd 0.0	+1.0 deep 29% / 14%	−1.5 4/5 best	−0.3	−0.4	+0.4
102	Ryan Silverfield Arkansas at Utah · L 10–43 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−1.1 ±1.6	−0.7 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 21% / 13%	0.0 7/10 best	−0.1	−0.3	0.0
103	Jedd Fisch Washington vs Utah State · W 16–14 1:35 Q3 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 49, up 3: punted −0.7 · punted 39 yards	−1.1 ±0.9	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.5 deep 10% / 14%	−0.9 6/10 best	+0.2	−0.1	+0.1
104	Collin Klein Kansas State vs Washington State · W 34–7 6:00 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 13, tied: kicked the field goal −0.9 · 30-yard field goal good 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	−1.2 ±0.5	−0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.5 deep 18% / 13%	−0.7 2/6 best	+0.2	−0.2	+0.1
105	Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan at Michigan State · L 7–35	−1.2 ±0.8	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.4 deep 8% / 15%	−0.8 1/6 best	−0.3	+0.1	+0.3
106	Troy Calhoun Air Force vs North Dakota State · L 32–38	−1.2 ±2.0	−0.2 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 3/6 best	−0.8	−0.4	+0.2
107	Dan Mullen UNLV at North Texas · L 6–44 13:34 Q1 · 4th & 12 at own 23: Delay Of Game, 5 yards (before a kick) −0.9 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	−1.2 ±1.7	−0.2 3rd 0.0	−0.3 deep 20% / 15%	+0.5 5/9 best	−0.1	−0.6	−0.5
108	Tre Lamb Tulsa at Sam Houston · W 23–17 6:45 Q1 · 4th & 3 at the opponent's 8, down 7: went for it +1.8 · stopped short 5 third-down throws short of the sticks the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	−1.4 ±2.5	+0.2 3rd 0.0	−2.2 deep 25% / 17%	−0.6 6/11 best	+0.2	+0.5	+0.6
109	Jason Candle UConn vs Maryland · L 14–38 7:40 Q1 · 4th & 3 at the opponent's 48, tied: punted −0.5 · punted 38 yards 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	−1.7 ±1.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	−1.6 deep 29% / 14%	−0.4 5/8 best	+0.2	−0.2	+0.2
110	Kalen DeBoer Alabama at Kentucky · W 45–17 0:34 Q2 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 48: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −3.8	−1.8 ±2.1	+0.1 3rd 0.0	+1.5 deep 17% / 16%	−0.5 2/5 best	+0.2	+0.4	−3.4
111	G.J. Kinne Texas State vs UTSA · L 26–31 4:27 Q3 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 17, tied: went for it +1.7 · stopped short 3 third-down throws short of the sticks the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	−1.8 ±8.3	−2.5 3rd −0.6	−0.9 deep 5% / 12%	+1.1 4/6 best	−1.0	+0.5	+1.0
112	Jeff Lebby Mississippi State at Minnesota · W 38–13	−1.8 ±2.3	−0.1 3rd −0.1	−0.4 deep 40% / 16%	0.0 3/4 best	+0.2	−1.7	+0.3
113	Bryant Vincent UL Monroe at UAB · L 20–26 10:24 Q3 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 6, up 7: kicked the field goal −3.3 · 23-yard field goal good	−2.0 ±3.9	−1.1 3rd +0.1	+1.1 deep 8% / 13%	−1.5 5/8 best	0.0	−1.0	+0.6
114	P.J. Fleck Minnesota vs Mississippi State · L 13–38 2:58 Q1 · 4th & 3 at the opponent's 26, down 7: kicked the field goal −1.6 · 43-yard field goal good	−2.5 ±1.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.8 deep 0% / 17%	−1.8 4/9 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.3
115	Dell McGee Georgia State at Kennesaw State · W 31–17 14:38 Q1 · 2nd & 1 at own 34: Illegal Substitution, 5 yards −2.2	−2.5 ±2.3	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 20% / 12%	−0.2 3/6 best	−0.5	+0.1	−1.8
116	Will Hall Tulane vs South Alabama · W 28–24 3:19 Q4 · trailing late, 4 snaps with the clock running: 26s between snaps on average −2.2 finished with 1 timeouts while the clock ran slow tempo while trailing late	−2.5 ±2.5	+0.2 3rd 0.0	+0.6 deep 35% / 16%	+0.5 2/6 best	−4.0	−0.2	+0.3
117	Jerry Mack Kennesaw State vs Georgia State · L 17–31 9:47 Q3 · 4th & 18 at the opponent's 38, down 18: punted −0.8 · punted 31 yards	−2.6 ±1.8	−0.4 3rd +0.2	−0.9 deep 13% / 15%	−1.2 2/7 best	−0.5	+0.2	+0.3
118	Casey Woods Missouri State vs Lindenwood · W 48–14 8:43 Q1 · 4th & 1 at own 26: Illegal Substitution, 55 yards −2.4 3 third-down throws short of the sticks 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−2.7 ±0.5	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.5 deep 11% / 14%	+0.2 4/5 best	−0.1	+0.1	−2.4
119	Kalani Sitake BYU vs Arizona · W 28–17 5:39 Q3 · 3rd & 11 at own 5: Delay Of Game, 2 yards −1.1	−2.8 ±2.9	−0.9 3rd +0.2	0.0 deep 10% / 14%	−0.3 3/5 best	−0.8	−0.2	−0.6
120	Jamey Chadwell Liberty vs Gardner-Webb · W 24–23 4:32 Q4 · trailing late, 3 snaps with the clock running: 33s between snaps on average −4.1 slow tempo while trailing late	−2.9 ±6.1	+2.8 3rd −0.2	+0.8 deep 36% / 19%	−2.3 5/9 best	−4.9	+0.1	+0.6
121	Jeff Monken Army vs South Florida · L 24–28 0:24 Q2 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 22, tied: went for it +2.0 · converted	−3.0 ±8.1	−3.9 3rd −0.8	−0.4 deep 25% / 16%	+3.2 3/7 best	−0.1	−2.4	+0.7
122	Charles Huff Memphis at Boise State · L 20–38 6:42 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 2, down 3: kicked the field goal −1.2 · 19-yard field goal no good	−3.2 ±2.9	−0.3 3rd +0.1	−1.3 deep 40% / 12%	−2.1 4/7 best	+0.2	+0.1	+0.3
123	Kenny Dillingham Arizona State at Texas A&M · L 20–48 8:43 Q1 · 3rd & 8 at own 33: Illegal Substitution, 19 yards −2.5 4 third-down throws short of the sticks 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−3.2 ±3.1	−0.4 3rd +0.2	−1.3 deep 14% / 16%	+0.2 4/8 best	+0.2	+0.4	−2.3
124	Dan Lanning Oregon at Oklahoma State · L 31–39 10:21 Q4 · 1st & 10 at own 25: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −2.5 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−3.3 ±1.7	−1.1 3rd 0.0	+1.6 deep 13% / 16%	+1.2 7/9 best	−0.5	−0.2	−4.4
125	Tosh Lupoi California at Syracuse · W 21–18 1:14 Q4 · leading late, 2 snaps with the clock running: 12s between snaps on average −4.2 slow tempo while trailing late 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−3.3 ±3.2	+0.5 3rd +0.1	+1.3 deep 17% / 14%	−0.4 5/9 best	−4.3	+0.9	−1.3
126	Timmy Chang Hawai'i vs New Mexico State · W 29–19 the defense gave up the deep ball and the passing game stayed short 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	−3.4 ±4.0	−2.3 3rd −0.6	−1.9 deep 5% / 12%	+0.1 5/9 best	−0.5	+0.6	+0.5
127	Tony Gibson Marshall vs Middle Tennessee · W 28–26 8:10 Q3 · 1st & 10 at midfield: Illegal Substitution, 4 yards −1.6 slow tempo while trailing late	−3.7 ±3.1	−0.5 3rd +0.4	−0.2 deep 15% / 13%	−1.1 4/6 best	−0.7	−0.1	−1.1
128	Eric Morris Oklahoma State vs Oregon · W 39–31 4:29 Q4 · leading late, 4 snaps with the clock running: 38s between snaps on average +1.1 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	−3.9 ±7.5	−5.3 3rd +0.1	−1.1 deep 9% / 11%	+0.8 6/9 best	+1.3	−0.2	+0.7
129	Fran Brown Syracuse vs California · L 18–21 1:40 Q1 · 4th & 3 at own 47, up 3: went for it +1.5 · converted 6 third-down throws short of the sticks	−4.9 ±6.0	−4.6 3rd +0.8	−3.4 deep 21% / 14%	+1.3 7/8 best	+0.2	+0.9	+0.7
130	Brian Hartline South Florida at Army · W 28–24 0:19 Q4 · 4th & 6 at the opponent's 38, down 3: went for it −3.4 · converted 3 third-down throws short of the sticks slow tempo while trailing late	−5.4 ±4.2	−0.3 3rd +0.2	0.0 deep 10% / 16%	−4.2 1/5 best	−0.9	+0.1	−0.1
131	Blake Harrell East Carolina vs App State · L 24–27 10:04 Q3 · 2nd & 11 at own 29: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −3.0 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	−5.9 ±3.1	−0.2 3rd +0.1	−2.7 deep 23% / 16%	+0.3 7/11 best	−0.9	0.0	−2.4
132	Matt Drinkall Central Michigan vs Colgate · W 13–10 2:41 Q4 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 32, up 3: punted −9.9 · punted 26 yards	−6.0 ±5.8	+2.8 3rd +0.8	−0.7 deep 13% / 17%	−8.8 4/8 best	−0.4	+0.4	+0.6
133	John Hauser Ohio vs Jacksonville State · W 29–27 0:06 Q2 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 29, down 13: kicked the field goal −3.0 · 46-yard field goal no good	−6.2 ±4.6	+2.3 3rd +0.5	−0.3 deep 0% / 14%	−3.8 2/6 best	−2.4	−2.6	+0.6
134	Bret Bielema Illinois vs Duke · L 27–31 2:54 Q4 · 4th & 4 at own 38, down 4: went for it +2.0 · stopped short slow tempo while trailing late the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	−6.2 ±2.8	−3.4 3rd −0.9	+0.7 deep 11% / 15%	−0.3 3/6 best	−2.2	−1.8	+0.7
135	Kirk Ferentz Iowa vs Iowa State · W 16–13 6:22 Q4 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 14, down 3: kicked the field goal −6.9 · 31-yard field goal good	−7.0 ±3.7	+0.5 3rd −0.1	+0.1 deep 16% / 14%	−9.2 6/10 best	−0.1	+0.8	+0.8

What a coaching grade is made of, 2026 so far

Six families of decisions, added up. For each: the staff whose calls added the most, and the one whose calls cost the most.

Play calling

run or pass on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down and in the red zone, against how this offense matched up with this defense

Added most · Derek Mason · Middle Tennessee+5.2

Cost most · Eric Morris · Oklahoma State−5.1

best 1st down: Bob Chesneybest 2nd down: Dave Arandabest 3rd down: Jeff Brohmbest red zone: Derek Mason

Passing strategy

staff and quarterback together: how deep they threw against what the defense gave up, and whether third-down throws reached the sticks

Added most · Brent Venables · Oklahoma+3.8

Cost most · Chris Creighton · Eastern Michigan−4.7

best depth: Brent Brennanbest 3rd-down sticks: Jake Dickert

4th down & 2-point

go, kick or punt, the play called on a go, and two-point tries

Added most · Dave Aranda · Baylor+8.7

Cost most · Kirk Ferentz · Iowa−9.2

best 4th downs: Dave Arandabest 2-point: Deion Sanders

Clock & timeouts

tempo late and before halftime, clock-burning calls, timeouts unused or spent early, spikes, end-of-half possessions

Added most · Eddie George · Bowling Green+5.6

Cost most · Pete Golding · Ole Miss−5.7

best tempo: Eddie Georgebest timeouts: Dave Aranda

Personnel usage

who got the ball, against each player's measured efficiency, in-game form and workload

Added most · Barry Odom · Purdue+1.7

Cost most · Dave Aranda · Baylor−3.4

Operations

delay of game, too many men and substitution fouls, against a typical staff's rate

Added most · Timmy Chang · Hawai'i+1.7

Cost most · Dan Lanning · Oregon−4.1

The 10 staffs whose calls added most, and the 10 that cost most · 2026, with 95% intervals

16 of 138 staffs are clearly above or below zero so far. The rest could be anywhere on their line — a rank is only a rank where the line does not cross zero.

clearly addedclearly costcan’t tell yet

129Will Hall · Tulane−4.7
130Fran Brown · Syracuse−5.0
131Charles Huff · Memphis−5.7
132Blake Harrell · East Carolina−5.8
133Matt Drinkall · Central Michigan−5.9
134Brian Hartline · South Florida−6.0
135John Hauser · Ohio−6.7
136Kirk Ferentz · Iowa−6.8
137Bret Bielema · Illinois−7.0
138Chris Creighton · Eastern Michigan−7.1

Season win probability added vs the typical FBS staff, percentage points

2026 season to date

Rank bySeason totalPer gamePlay callingPassing strategy4th down & 2-pointClock & timeoutsPersonnel usageOperations3rd-down callsThrowing deep

ConferenceAllBig TenACCBig 12SECAmerican AthleticSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAMountain WestPac-12FBS Independents

#	Coach	Season	Per game	Wk 1	Wk 2	Play calling	Passing	4th & 2-pt	Clock	Usage	Ops
1	Dave Aranda Baylor · Big 12 · 2 games	+13.2 ±5.1	+6.6	+13.0	+0.2	+3.1 3rd 0.0	+2.7	+8.7 10/18 best · 2 bold	+0.8	−3.4	+1.4
2	Alex Mortensen UAB · American Athletic · 2 games	+5.9 ±7.3	+3.0	+0.1	+5.9	+2.8 3rd +0.7	+2.5	+1.0 10/14 best	−0.7	+0.6	−0.2
3	Ryan Day Ohio State · Big Ten · 2 games	+5.8 ±2.5	+2.9	+0.2	+5.6	+0.5 3rd +0.5	+2.6	+1.0 10/13 best · 1 bold	+0.2	+1.0	+0.5
4	Eddie George Bowling Green · Mid-American · 2 games	+5.3 ±5.5	+2.6	+5.1	+0.2	−1.9 3rd +0.3	+1.1	+0.5 8/15 best	+5.6	−0.1	+0.2
5	Rhett Lashlee SMU · ACC · 2 games	+4.9 ±3.6	+2.4	+4.9	0.0	+2.9 3rd +0.9	0.0	+0.9 8/9 best	+0.1	0.0	+1.0
6	Derek Mason Middle Tennessee · Conference USA · 2 games	+4.6 ±4.6	+2.3	+0.5	+4.2	+5.2 3rd +0.7	+1.2	0.0 7/13 best	−0.6	−0.3	−1.0
7	Mike Norvell Florida State · ACC · 2 games	+4.6 ±5.3	+2.3	+4.6	—	+2.0 3rd +0.2	0.0	+2.0 11/16 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.8
8	Brent Venables Oklahoma · SEC · 2 games	+4.4 ±4.2	+2.2	−0.1	+4.5	0.0 3rd +0.1	+3.8	+0.5 6/13 best	−1.5	+0.8	+0.7
9	Brent Key Georgia Tech · ACC · 2 games	+4.0 ±3.8	+2.0	+4.0	−0.1	+1.3 3rd +0.7	+1.0	+0.4 5/13 best	−0.1	+0.5	+0.9
10	Greg Schiano Rutgers · Big Ten · 2 games	+3.8 ±3.2	+1.9	+1.4	+2.4	−0.4 3rd 0.0	−0.9	+5.5 14/15 best · 1 bold	−0.3	−0.1	+0.1
11	Jake Dickert Wake Forest · ACC · 2 games	+3.7 ±4.8	+1.9	−0.7	+4.5	−0.8 3rd −0.3	+3.2	0.0 5/13 best	−0.8	+1.3	+0.8
12	Manny Diaz Duke · ACC · 2 games	+3.4 ±4.5	+1.7	−2.5	+5.9	+0.1 3rd −0.1	−0.5	+3.2 10/16 best	+1.1	−1.2	+0.8
13	Willie Simmons Florida International · Conference USA · 2 games	+3.3 ±2.8	+1.7	+2.3	+1.1	+0.8 3rd 0.0	+0.8	+3.9 15/18 best · 2 bold	−0.1	0.0	−2.0
14	Barry Odom Purdue · Big Ten · 2 games	+3.2 ±8.6	+1.6	+0.2	+3.0	+1.5 3rd −0.4	−1.3	−0.4 5/11 best	+0.4	+1.7	+1.3
15	Lance Taylor Western Michigan · Mid-American · 2 games	+3.1 ±2.8	+1.6	+3.3	−0.2	+0.9 3rd +0.5	−0.9	−0.8 6/15 best	+2.7	+0.9	+0.4
16	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State · Conference USA · 3 games	+3.0 ±3.7	+1.0	+2.2	+0.9	+1.0 3rd +0.6	+0.8	+3.2 8/14 best · 1 bold	−2.4	+0.3	+0.2
17	Lance Leipold Kansas · Big 12 · 2 games	+2.8 ±1.9	+1.4	+0.2	+2.5	+0.1 3rd −0.1	−1.8	+3.8 9/12 best · 1 bold	+0.1	+0.1	+0.5
18	Jeff Traylor UTSA · American Athletic · 2 games	+2.4 ±5.5	+1.2	−0.3	+2.7	+1.0 3rd −0.7	+2.0	−0.1 13/18 best · 1 bold	−1.5	+0.3	+0.7
19	Jeff Choate Nevada · Mountain West · 2 games	+2.4 ±2.3	+1.2	+0.4	+1.9	+1.1 3rd +0.6	−0.3	+1.4 8/13 best · 1 bold	−0.3	−0.1	+0.5
20	Major Applewhite South Alabama · Sun Belt · 2 games	+2.4 ±5.1	+1.2	+1.7	+0.6	+0.6 3rd +0.8	+1.9	−0.6 12/15 best · 1 bold	+0.2	−0.6	+0.9
21	Sean Lewis San Diego State · Pac-12 · 2 games	+2.3 ±2.0	+1.1	+0.2	+2.1	+1.2 3rd +0.1	+0.3	−0.6 6/14 best	+0.4	+0.7	+0.3
22	Brian Newberry Navy · American Athletic · 2 games	+1.8 ±2.0	+0.9	+0.2	+1.7	+1.0 3rd +0.2	0.0	+0.5 11/13 best	+0.1	0.0	+0.2
23	Steve Sarkisian Texas · SEC · 2 games	+1.6 ±2.1	+0.8	−0.2	+1.9	−0.3 3rd +0.1	+0.9	+2.3 7/10 best · 1 bold	−2.3	+0.3	+0.8
24	Mark Carney Kent State · Mid-American · 2 games	+1.6 ±3.3	+0.8	−0.3	+2.0	+0.5 3rd 0.0	+1.1	+0.3 8/13 best	−0.1	−0.7	+0.5
25	Bill O'Brien Boston College · ACC · 2 games	+1.5 ±2.5	+0.8	0.0	+1.6	−0.3 3rd −0.1	−0.2	+2.8 10/14 best · 1 bold	−1.4	0.0	+0.6
26	Jim Mora Colorado State · Pac-12 · 2 games	+1.4 ±3.3	+0.7	+1.5	−0.1	0.0 3rd −0.1	+1.3	+0.3 6/14 best	−0.6	0.0	+0.5
27	Clark Lea Vanderbilt · SEC · 2 games	+1.4 ±0.8	+0.7	+0.3	+1.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.8	+0.6 12/17 best	+0.9	−0.2	−0.7
28	Will Stein Kentucky · SEC · 2 games	+1.3 ±2.0	+0.6	+0.2	+1.1	−0.1 3rd −0.6	−1.3	+2.6 8/14 best · 2 bold	+0.1	−0.4	+0.5
29	Deion Sanders Colorado · Big 12 · 2 games	+1.2 ±5.6	+0.6	+1.3	−0.1	+0.8 3rd +0.3	−1.9	+0.5 12/17 best · 1 bold	+1.0	−0.2	+0.9
30	Eli Drinkwitz Missouri · SEC · 2 games	+1.0 ±2.4	+0.5	+0.2	+0.8	−0.6 3rd −0.1	+2.3	−0.4 10/13 best	+0.4	−1.2	+0.5
31	JaMarcus Shephard Oregon State · Pac-12 · 2 games	+1.0 ±2.1	+0.5	+0.2	+0.8	+0.6 3rd +0.1	+0.1	+0.3 10/21 best	+0.1	0.0	−0.2
32	Rob Harley Northern Illinois · Mountain West · 2 games	+0.9 ±2.3	+0.5	+0.2	+0.8	+1.0 3rd −0.1	−1.6	+3.5 13/19 best · 1 bold	−0.7	−1.9	+0.7
33	Willie Fritz Houston · Big 12 · 2 games	+0.8 ±1.2	+0.4	+0.7	+0.2	+0.1 3rd −0.1	+0.4	−0.1 4/6 best	+0.1	+0.2	+0.2
34	Dowell Loggains App State · Sun Belt · 2 games	+0.8 ±2.3	+0.4	−0.1	+0.9	+0.1 3rd +0.1	+1.6	0.0 9/14 best	−1.1	−0.4	+0.7
35	Scott Satterfield Cincinnati · Big 12 · 2 games	+0.8 ±1.6	+0.4	+0.6	+0.2	−0.1 3rd +0.1	+0.1	+0.7 5/10 best · 1 bold	+0.1	0.0	+0.1
36	Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic · American Athletic · 2 games	+0.8 ±3.0	+0.4	+0.2	+0.6	+1.1 3rd −0.1	−0.9	+3.1 15/15 best · 2 bold	−2.9	+0.2	+0.2
37	Jimmy Rogers Iowa State · Big 12 · 2 games	+0.7 ±4.2	+0.3	−0.3	+1.0	+0.3 3rd −0.1	+1.3	−0.3 6/15 best	−0.4	+0.8	−1.0
38	Mike Elko Texas A&M · SEC · 2 games	+0.6 ±1.9	+0.3	0.0	+0.7	+0.2 3rd +0.1	0.0	+0.3 10/15 best	+0.1	−0.3	+0.3
39	Tim Polasek North Dakota State · Mountain West · 3 games	+0.6 ±2.6	+0.2	−0.2	+0.8	−0.2 3rd 0.0	+0.8	+2.4 18/22 best · 1 bold	−2.2	+0.6	−0.7
40	Spencer Danielson Boise State · Pac-12 · 2 games	+0.6 ±3.7	+0.3	−2.7	+3.3	+2.0 3rd +0.3	−1.8	+1.4 13/18 best · 1 bold	−0.7	0.0	−0.3
41	K.C. Keeler Temple · American Athletic · 2 games	+0.6 ±1.4	+0.3	+0.2	+0.4	−0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.1	+0.3 10/15 best	+0.1	+0.3	+0.1
42	Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech · Sun Belt · 2 games	+0.5 ±0.2	+0.2	+0.2	+0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.3 10/13 best	+0.1	0.0	0.0
43	Scott Frost UCF · Big 12 · 2 games	+0.5 ±1.8	+0.2	+0.2	+0.3	+0.2 3rd +0.1	−0.3	+0.5 5/12 best	0.0	+0.3	−0.1
44	Lincoln Riley USC · Big Ten · 3 games	+0.5 ±0.3	+0.2	+0.4	0.0	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.3 7/8 best	+0.3	−0.1	+0.1
45	Matt Rhule Nebraska · Big Ten · 2 games	+0.4 ±0.8	+0.2	+0.1	+0.3	+0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.8	+0.6 7/8 best	+0.4	0.0	+0.3
46	Morgan Scalley Utah · Big 12 · 2 games	+0.4 ±1.0	+0.2	−0.1	+0.5	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	+1.6 5/8 best	+0.1	−0.3	−1.0
47	Bill Belichick North Carolina · ACC · 2 games	+0.4 ±3.4	+0.2	+0.6	−0.3	+1.0 3rd +0.1	+2.5	−1.1 6/10 best · 1 bold	−1.6	+0.2	−0.6
48	Josh Heupel Tennessee · SEC · 2 games	+0.3 ±1.1	+0.2	−0.8	+1.1	−0.2 3rd −0.1	+0.4	+1.1 8/10 best	−0.8	−0.3	+0.2
49	James Franklin Virginia Tech · ACC · 2 games	+0.3 ±0.3	+0.2	+0.2	+0.1	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.2 9/12 best	+0.1	0.0	+0.1
50	Jon Sumrall Florida · SEC · 2 games	+0.3 ±0.1	+0.1	+0.1	+0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.1 5/8 best	+0.1	0.0	0.0
51	Ricky Rahne Old Dominion · Sun Belt · 2 games	+0.3 ±0.2	+0.1	+0.2	+0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	0.0 6/14 best	+0.3	0.0	0.0
52	Joey McGuire Texas Tech · Big 12 · 2 games	+0.2 ±0.5	+0.1	−0.3	+0.5	0.0 3rd −0.1	−0.1	+0.1 11/15 best	−0.1	+0.2	+0.2
53	Dave Doeren NC State · ACC · 2 games	+0.2 ±1.9	+0.1	+0.2	0.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.4	0.0 5/10 best	−0.4	0.0	+0.2
54	Mike Locksley Maryland · Big Ten · 2 games	+0.2 ±2.9	+0.1	−0.3	+0.5	+0.2 3rd 0.0	+1.6	−1.1 9/13 best	−0.4	−0.5	+0.3
55	Michael Desormeaux Louisiana · Sun Belt · 2 games	+0.1 ±0.5	+0.1	0.0	+0.1	+0.1 3rd +0.1	0.0	−0.1 7/11 best	+0.1	0.0	+0.1
56	Ken Niumatalolo San José State · Mountain West · 3 games	+0.1 ±3.7	0.0	−0.4	+0.4	0.0 3rd 0.0	−2.2	+3.9 13/24 best · 1 bold	−0.7	−0.4	−0.5
57	Ryan Beard Coastal Carolina · Sun Belt · 2 games	0.0 ±0.3	0.0	+0.3	−0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.4 6/14 best · 1 bold	−0.1	0.0	−0.2
58	Jason Eck New Mexico · Mountain West · 2 games	0.0 ±0.8	0.0	−0.2	+0.2	0.0 3rd +0.1	−0.4	+0.5 9/13 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.2
59	Gerad Parker Troy · Sun Belt · 2 games	0.0 ±2.6	0.0	−0.1	+0.1	0.0 3rd +0.1	+0.6	+0.3 17/20 best	−0.8	−0.5	+0.4
60	Joe Moorhead Akron · Mid-American · 2 games	−0.1 ±0.2	0.0	−0.3	+0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.1 7/11 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.1
61	Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh · ACC · 2 games	−0.1 ±2.0	0.0	+0.1	−0.1	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.2	+0.3 7/15 best · 1 bold	−0.1	−0.6	+0.5
62	Kirby Smart Georgia · SEC · 2 games	−0.1 ±0.1	−0.1	+0.2	−0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	0.0 3/6 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
63	Shane Beamer South Carolina · SEC · 2 games	−0.1 ±0.1	−0.1	−0.3	+0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	—	0.0 5/8 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
64	Brent Brennan Arizona · Big 12 · 2 games	−0.1 ±5.0	−0.1	−0.1	−0.1	0.0 3rd +0.1	+2.7	−1.1 5/11 best · 1 bold	−0.8	−0.3	−0.5
65	Scott Abell Rice · American Athletic · 2 games	−0.2 ±1.3	−0.1	+0.8	−1.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.4 12/14 best	−0.8	+0.1	+0.1
66	Scotty Walden UTEP · Mountain West · 2 games	−0.2 ±0.3	−0.1	−0.3	+0.1	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.2 12/16 best	−0.4	0.0	0.0
67	Billy Napier James Madison · Sun Belt · 2 games	−0.3 ±1.1	−0.2	−0.5	+0.2	+0.4 3rd 0.0	−0.6	−0.3 6/9 best	+0.1	−0.2	+0.3
68	Blake Anderson Southern Miss · Sun Belt · 2 games	−0.3 ±0.4	−0.2	−0.3	0.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.1	+0.5 10/14 best	−0.8	0.0	+0.1
69	Rich Rodriguez West Virginia · Big 12 · 2 games	−0.3 ±0.6	−0.2	−0.3	−0.1	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0	−0.1 6/12 best	+0.1	−0.4	+0.1
70	Bob Chesney UCLA · Big Ten · 2 games	−0.3 ±3.8	−0.2	−3.7	+3.4	+2.7 3rd −1.0	−0.8	+0.8 8/10 best	−0.4	−0.6	−2.1
71	Dabo Swinney Clemson · ACC · 2 games	−0.4 ±1.0	−0.2	−0.8	+0.5	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.6	−0.2 15/22 best	−0.1	+0.1	−0.7
72	Matt Entz Fresno State · Pac-12 · 2 games	−0.4 ±0.5	−0.2	−0.2	−0.2	+0.2 3rd 0.0	0.0	−0.6 4/9 best	+0.1	−0.2	+0.1
73	Mike Uremovich Ball State · Mid-American · 2 games	−0.4 ±0.7	−0.2	+0.1	−0.6	−0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.2	+0.1 12/17 best	+0.1	−0.4	+0.1
74	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State · Conference USA · 3 games	−0.4 ±2.0	−0.1	+0.6	−1.1	−0.2 3rd 0.0	+1.1	−1.4 14/19 best	+0.1	−0.4	+0.5
75	Mike Jacobs Toledo · Mid-American · 2 games	−0.5 ±1.1	−0.2	−0.7	+0.2	+0.9 3rd 0.0	+0.5	−0.2 8/10 best	−0.6	0.0	−1.1
76	Ryan Carty Delaware · Conference USA · 2 games	−0.5 ±0.9	−0.2	+0.3	−0.7	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.3	+0.1 13/18 best	−0.4	−0.1	+0.2
77	Clay Helton Georgia Southern · Sun Belt · 2 games	−0.6 ±1.1	−0.3	+0.2	−0.9	−0.5 3rd 0.0	−0.7	+0.2 14/23 best	+0.1	+0.1	+0.2
78	Kirby Moore Washington State · Pac-12 · 2 games	−0.7 ±1.0	−0.3	−0.5	−0.2	+0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.2	+0.1 10/18 best · 1 bold	−0.2	−0.3	−0.2
79	Mario Cristobal Miami · ACC · 2 games	−0.7 ±0.1	−0.4	−0.7	0.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	0.0 2/4 best	−0.8	+0.1	0.0
80	Alonzo Carter Sacramento State · Mid-American · 3 games	−0.8 ±2.5	−0.3	−0.2	−0.6	+0.7 3rd +0.2	+0.4	−0.4 19/27 best · 1 bold	−1.1	0.0	−0.3
81	Pete Lembo Buffalo · Mid-American · 2 games	−0.8 ±2.5	−0.4	−1.7	+0.9	+0.2 3rd 0.0	+0.7	−0.1 12/22 best	−2.1	−0.2	+0.6
82	Chuck Martin Miami (OH) · Mid-American · 2 games	−0.9 ±0.6	−0.4	−1.1	+0.2	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.2	−1.1 5/11 best	+0.4	0.0	+0.1
83	Dan Mullen UNLV · Mountain West · 3 games	−0.9 ±5.1	−0.3	+0.3	−1.2	+0.7 3rd −0.2	−2.0	+2.3 19/29 best · 2 bold	−0.9	−1.8	+0.8
84	Matt Campbell Penn State · Big Ten · 2 games	−1.0 ±0.4	−0.5	−0.4	−0.6	−0.1 3rd −0.1	0.0	−0.8 5/12 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
85	Collin Klein Kansas State · Big 12 · 2 games	−1.0 ±0.5	−0.5	+0.2	−1.2	−0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.5	−0.7 3/8 best	+0.4	−0.2	+0.1
86	Marcus Freeman Notre Dame · FBS Independents · 2 games	−1.0 ±0.6	−0.5	−0.5	−0.5	0.0 3rd +0.1	−0.5	+0.3 7/10 best	−1.1	+0.1	+0.1
87	Tony Elliott Virginia · ACC · 2 games	−1.1 ±2.8	−0.5	−0.1	−1.0	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.7 10/15 best	−1.8	0.0	+0.2
88	Jay Sawvel Wyoming · Mountain West · 2 games	−1.1 ±4.7	−0.6	−0.2	−0.9	0.0 3rd +0.2	+1.2	+0.4 6/11 best · 1 bold	−1.8	−0.1	−0.8
89	Neal Brown North Texas · American Athletic · 2 games	−1.2 ±1.4	−0.6	−0.3	−0.9	−0.7 3rd −0.1	−0.5	+0.1 10/14 best	−0.1	+0.1	0.0
90	Tyson Helton Western Kentucky · Conference USA · 2 games	−1.5 ±2.7	−0.7	−1.4	−0.1	+0.4 3rd +0.3	−0.6	−1.3 8/19 best	−0.4	0.0	+0.4
91	Luke Fickell Wisconsin · Big Ten · 2 games	−1.5 ±0.4	−0.7	−1.4	−0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.1	−0.9 5/14 best	−0.6	0.0	+0.1
92	Jason Candle UConn · FBS Independents · 2 games	−1.5 ±1.0	−0.7	+0.2	−1.7	0.0 3rd 0.0	−1.6	−0.1 9/13 best	+0.1	−0.2	+0.2
93	Ryan Silverfield Arkansas · SEC · 2 games	−1.5 ±1.6	−0.8	−0.4	−1.1	−0.7 3rd 0.0	−0.1	+0.1 11/16 best	−0.6	−0.3	+0.1
94	Alex Golesh Auburn · SEC · 2 games	−1.6 ±3.0	−0.8	−1.6	0.0	−0.3 3rd −0.3	+0.6	+0.7 10/15 best	−1.3	−2.1	+0.8
95	Troy Calhoun Air Force · Mountain West · 2 games	−1.6 ±2.0	−0.8	−0.4	−1.2	−0.2 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.1 6/12 best	−1.1	−0.4	0.0
96	Curt Cignetti Indiana · Big Ten · 2 games	−1.8 ±0.1	−0.9	−0.7	−1.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	0.0 6/7 best	−1.8	0.0	0.0
97	Bronco Mendenhall Utah State · Pac-12 · 2 games	−1.8 ±2.5	−0.9	−2.5	+0.7	−0.5 3rd −0.2	+0.9	+1.5 11/13 best	−2.6	−0.5	−0.7
98	Lane Kiffin LSU · SEC · 2 games	−1.8 ±1.1	−0.9	−1.3	−0.5	+0.2 3rd 0.0	−0.7	−0.7 4/12 best	−0.8	0.0	+0.2
99	Pat Fitzgerald Michigan State · Big Ten · 2 games	−1.8 ±2.0	−0.9	−1.6	−0.2	+0.4 3rd +0.2	−0.8	−0.3 12/16 best	−1.3	−0.4	+0.6
100	Butch Jones Arkansas State · Sun Belt · 2 games	−1.9 ±1.1	−0.9	−1.6	−0.3	+0.1 3rd −0.1	+0.1	−0.3 3/7 best	−1.9	−0.2	+0.4
101	Tim Albin Charlotte · American Athletic · 2 games	−1.9 ±2.9	−0.9	−2.1	+0.2	+0.3 3rd 0.0	−1.3	+2.3 9/15 best	−3.9	−0.1	+0.8
102	Eric Morris Oklahoma State · Big 12 · 2 games	−1.9 ±8.3	−0.9	+2.0	−3.9	−5.1 3rd +0.2	−1.1	+1.9 13/18 best · 1 bold	+1.5	−0.2	+1.2
103	G.J. Kinne Texas State · Pac-12 · 2 games	−2.0 ±8.3	−1.0	−0.1	−1.8	−2.5 3rd −0.6	−0.9	+1.2 9/12 best · 1 bold	−1.3	+0.5	+1.0
104	Jeff Lebby Mississippi State · SEC · 2 games	−2.0 ±2.3	−1.0	−0.1	−1.8	−0.1 3rd −0.1	−0.4	−0.1 4/9 best	+0.1	−1.8	+0.3
105	David Braun Northwestern · Big Ten · 1 game	−2.0 ±1.7	−2.0	−2.0	—	−0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.9	−0.5 3/7 best	−0.8	0.0	+0.3
106	Sonny Dykes TCU · Big 12 · 2 games	−2.2 ±3.4	−1.1	−2.4	+0.2	−0.8 3rd −0.4	−1.2	−1.1 9/13 best	+0.1	−0.1	+0.9
107	Jedd Fisch Washington · Big Ten · 2 games	−2.3 ±1.1	−1.2	−1.2	−1.1	−0.3 3rd 0.0	−0.6	−1.2 11/16 best	+0.1	−0.1	−0.2
108	Kalen DeBoer Alabama · SEC · 2 games	−2.4 ±2.1	−1.2	−0.6	−1.8	0.0 3rd 0.0	+1.5	−0.5 5/10 best	−0.1	+0.4	−3.6
109	Casey Woods Missouri State · Conference USA · 2 games	−2.5 ±0.5	−1.3	+0.2	−2.7	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.5	+0.2 10/14 best	+0.1	+0.1	−2.4
110	Jerry Mack Kennesaw State · Conference USA · 2 games	−2.5 ±1.9	−1.3	+0.1	−2.6	−0.3 3rd +0.2	−0.9	−1.1 7/14 best	−0.6	+0.2	+0.3
111	Bryant Vincent UL Monroe · Sun Belt · 2 games	−2.5 ±3.9	−1.3	−0.6	−2.0	−1.1 3rd +0.1	+1.1	−1.5 14/21 best	−0.6	−1.0	+0.6
112	Dell McGee Georgia State · Sun Belt · 2 games	−2.6 ±2.3	−1.3	0.0	−2.5	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.1	−0.2 5/10 best	−0.6	+0.1	−1.8
113	Tosh Lupoi California · ACC · 2 games	−2.7 ±5.8	−1.3	+0.7	−3.3	+0.3 3rd +0.1	+2.4	+2.2 11/16 best · 1 bold	−5.0	−2.1	−0.5
114	Pete Golding Ole Miss · SEC · 2 games	−2.8 ±3.9	−1.4	−3.0	+0.2	+0.3 3rd +0.4	−0.6	+1.5 8/11 best	−5.7	+0.6	+1.2
115	P.J. Fleck Minnesota · Big Ten · 2 games	−3.0 ±1.2	−1.5	−0.5	−2.5	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.8	−1.8 6/13 best	−0.6	0.0	+0.3
116	Kenny Dillingham Arizona State · Big 12 · 2 games	−3.0 ±3.1	−1.5	+0.2	−3.2	−0.4 3rd +0.2	−1.3	+0.2 9/13 best	+0.4	+0.4	−2.3
117	Jeff Monken Army · American Athletic · 2 games	−3.0 ±8.1	−1.5	0.0	−3.0	−3.9 3rd −0.8	−0.4	+3.2 5/10 best · 1 bold	−0.1	−2.4	+0.7
118	Kyle Whittingham Michigan · Big Ten · 2 games	−3.1 ±3.9	−1.5	−4.9	+1.9	+1.0 3rd +0.4	−1.6	+1.1 9/16 best	−4.4	+0.3	+0.5
119	Kalani Sitake BYU · Big 12 · 2 games	−3.1 ±2.9	−1.5	−0.3	−2.8	−0.9 3rd +0.2	0.0	−0.3 3/7 best	−1.1	−0.2	−0.6
120	Timmy Chang Hawai'i · Mountain West · 3 games	−3.2 ±7.4	−1.1	+0.2	−3.4	−2.5 3rd −0.7	−2.2	+0.2 20/29 best	−0.9	+0.5	+1.7
121	Jamey Chadwell Liberty · Conference USA · 2 games	−3.3 ±7.1	−1.7	−0.4	−2.9	+2.1 3rd −0.3	+1.4	−3.0 9/17 best	−4.9	+0.1	+1.1
122	Tavita Pritchard Stanford · ACC · 2 games	−3.4 ±0.9	−1.7	−3.4	—	+0.1 3rd 0.0	+0.3	−1.6 11/19 best	−0.8	−0.6	−0.7
123	Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts · Mid-American · 2 games	−3.5 ±0.9	−1.7	−3.1	−0.4	−0.7 3rd −0.1	−0.7	−2.1 9/13 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.3
124	Tre Lamb Tulsa · American Athletic · 2 games	−3.5 ±3.1	−1.8	−2.1	−1.4	+1.1 3rd −0.1	−3.7	−1.7 11/19 best · 1 bold	+0.1	+0.5	+0.2
125	Tony Gibson Marshall · Sun Belt · 2 games	−3.6 ±3.1	−1.8	+0.1	−3.7	−0.5 3rd +0.4	−0.2	−1.2 8/15 best	−0.5	−0.1	−1.1
126	Jeff Brohm Louisville · ACC · 2 games	−3.7 ±2.7	−1.9	−3.8	+0.1	+0.8 3rd +0.9	−0.4	−1.9 5/12 best	+0.1	−0.1	−2.1
127	Dan Lanning Oregon · Big Ten · 2 games	−3.9 ±2.2	−1.9	−0.5	−3.3	−1.4 3rd +0.1	+1.8	+0.3 13/17 best · 1 bold	−0.7	+0.2	−4.1
128	Phil Longo Sam Houston · Conference USA · 2 games	−4.3 ±3.6	−2.1	−3.8	−0.4	−1.1 3rd −0.1	−1.3	−1.9 11/15 best	+1.0	−0.2	−0.7
129	Will Hall Tulane · American Athletic · 2 games	−4.7 ±3.3	−2.4	−2.2	−2.5	−0.5 3rd +0.1	−0.7	+0.4 9/17 best · 1 bold	−4.3	−0.3	+0.6
130	Fran Brown Syracuse · ACC · 2 games	−5.0 ±6.0	−2.5	−0.1	−4.9	−4.6 3rd +0.8	−3.4	+1.2 9/12 best · 1 bold	+0.1	+0.9	+0.7
131	Charles Huff Memphis · American Athletic · 3 games	−5.7 ±4.3	−1.9	−2.5	−3.2	−0.1 3rd +0.5	−1.4	−4.9 10/17 best	−0.7	+0.1	+1.3
132	Blake Harrell East Carolina · American Athletic · 2 games	−5.8 ±3.1	−2.9	+0.1	−5.9	−0.2 3rd +0.1	−2.7	+0.2 11/20 best	−0.7	0.0	−2.4
133	Matt Drinkall Central Michigan · Mid-American · 2 games	−5.9 ±5.8	−2.9	+0.2	−6.0	+2.8 3rd +0.9	−0.7	−8.8 11/16 best · 1 bold	−0.2	+0.4	+0.7
134	Brian Hartline South Florida · American Athletic · 2 games	−6.0 ±4.7	−3.0	−0.6	−5.4	−0.7 3rd +0.3	+0.1	−4.9 6/13 best	−0.7	+0.1	+0.1
135	John Hauser Ohio · Mid-American · 2 games	−6.7 ±4.7	−3.3	−0.5	−6.2	+2.4 3rd +0.6	−0.8	−3.9 5/14 best	−2.2	−3.0	+0.8
136	Kirk Ferentz Iowa · Big Ten · 2 games	−6.8 ±3.7	−3.4	+0.2	−7.0	+0.5 3rd −0.1	+0.1	−9.2 10/18 best	+0.1	+0.8	+0.8
137	Bret Bielema Illinois · Big Ten · 2 games	−7.0 ±2.9	−3.5	−0.8	−6.2	−3.4 3rd −0.9	+0.7	−0.2 5/9 best	−2.7	−1.9	+0.5
138	Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan · Mid-American · 3 games	−7.1 ±3.7	−2.4	−5.9	−1.2	+1.3 3rd +0.5	−4.7	−3.0 15/26 best	−2.0	+0.1	+1.3

Does a coaching grade repeat?

Measured on 2024 and 2025: split each staff’s season into odd and even weeks and ask whether the two halves agree. For the whole grade the answer is some of it is the staff (a full season’s reliability of 0.40). Treat a single week as a description of that game, and a season as a description of that season.

Part	Within a season	Season to season	Reads as
Whole grade	0.40n=270 · 0.13 to 0.36	0.11n=104 · -0.09 to 0.29	some of it is the staff
Play calling	0.62n=270 · 0.35 to 0.54	-0.10n=104 · -0.29 to 0.10	largely the staff
Passing strategy	0.10n=270 · -0.07 to 0.17	—	mostly the games, not the staff
Fourth downs	0.45n=270 · 0.17 to 0.39	0.32n=104 · 0.14 to 0.48	some of it is the staff
Clock & timeouts	0.20n=270 · -0.01 to 0.23	0.02n=104 · -0.17 to 0.22	mostly the games, not the staff
Personnel usage	0.74n=270 · 0.51 to 0.67	—	largely the staff
Operations	0.03n=270 · -0.11 to 0.13	0.05n=104 · -0.15 to 0.24	mostly the games, not the staff

Correlations with 95% intervals; n is staffs. Seasons up to 2025 are graded with a model fit on 2017-2025; 2026 is out of sample.

What the grade tested before trusting it

Riding the hot hand. A player's production earlier in a game told us nothing about the rest of it, once his season level was known (960 running back games, 239 receiver games). So chasing a hot hand is not rewarded, and not chasing one is not punished.
Wearing out a back. Past his 20th carry, a back runs 0.08 expected points per carry below his own season level. Those carries count against the staff's usage grade.
A timeout spent early. A second-half timeout that reaches the last four minutes is worth 0.24 points of win probability on average, across every game, close or not. That is what one burned in the third quarter costs.

How to read it. +3.0 means the staff’s calls, taken together, left the team three points of win probability better off than the typical staff’s calls in the same situations would have. The ± is how sure that is: the run/pass mix is the least certain part, because what worked early in a game is thin evidence. The total is six families added up: play calling, passing strategy, fourth downs and two-point tries, clock and timeouts, personnel usage, and operations. Passing strategy is the staff and the quarterback together — the call sets the menu and the quarterback reads the coverage. Its depth part credits throwing where this offense beat this defense by more than usual, not throwing deep for its own sake: league-wide, deep throws look better partly because they are thrown when someone is open. Best counts fourth downs where the staff chose the option priced highest; bold counts calls that went against what most staffs do in that spot and priced out better for it.

Head coaches only. Where a coordinator calls the plays, the number describes the staff the head coach runs. *Pre-snap discipline — false starts and formation fouls — is shown and left out of the total: it belongs to the players as much as the sideline.

Each game’s recap carries the full list of graded calls.