Arkansas vs. Utah: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
ARKTeam statsUTAH
- Q2 0:27UTAHD. Dampier pass to W. Parker for 7 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–29
- Q2 1:55UTAHW. Parker run for 9 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–22
- Q2 9:23UTAHD. Dampier run for 7 yds, for a TD (M. Carvalho Run For Two-point Conversion)3–15
- Q1 3:39UTAHW. Parker run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–7
- Q1 7:44ARKM. Gilbert 29 yd FG GOOD3–0
Our model, right now
The win-probability timeline fills in a few plays into the game.
- Our model prices this game live at UTAH −32.2 (100% UTAH).
- Against the pregame line (UTAH −12.5), UTAH covers in 96% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 60 vs the 55.5 line — the over hits 69%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- PassKJ Jackson 9/21, 86 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSutton Smith 6 CAR, 12 YDS
- RecChris Marshall 1 REC, 24 YDS
- PassDevon Dampier 10/15, 142 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDevon Dampier 7 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWayshawn Parker 4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Teams up 26 with 30 minutes left — like Utah right now — went on to win 99% of the time across 532 comparable historical situations.
- Ole Miss vs VanderbiltW 33–7
- Fresno State vs Kent StateW 56–10
- Buffalo vs Kent StateW 43–7
- Florida vs McNeeseW 50–7
- UCF vs New HampshireW 57–3
FAQ
Who will win Arkansas vs. Utah?
Gridpex's model favors Utah with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas vs. Utah?
The model projects Utah by 12.2.
What time is Arkansas vs. Utah and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 10:15 PM ET on ESPN, at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
| ARK | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Total yards | 260 |
| 86 | Passing yards | 178 |
| 38 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 9 | First downs | 13 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 2-4 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/21 | Comp/Att | 11/16 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-15 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 16:59 | Possession | 12:34 |
- Q2 0:27UTAHD. Dampier pass to W. Parker for 7 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–29
- Q2 1:55UTAHW. Parker run for 9 yds, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–22
- Q2 9:23UTAHD. Dampier run for 7 yds, for a TD (M. Carvalho Run For Two-point Conversion)3–15
- Q1 3:39UTAHW. Parker run for 1 yd, for a TD (D. Curtis KICK)3–7
- Q1 7:44ARKM. Gilbert 29 yd FG GOOD3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1817, ARK Elo 1547 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -12.2 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARK | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.0 (#49) | CORE overall | +16.4 (#20) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | +10 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →