Penn State vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap

6%

-38

11%

-32

15%

-24

17%

-18

16%

-10

13%

-4

9%

+4

5%

+10

2%

+18

1%

+24

0%

+32

0%

+38

0%

+46

Penn State winsTemple wins

Market: Penn State −24Projected: Penn State by 16 (85%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Penn State, the more likely Penn State wins.

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The backfield projections are the whole argument

Hunter Smith projects for 13 to 37 rushing yards against a run defense that sits 4th of 185 in what it allows, and Keveun Mason draws 8 to 23. Those bands are not a slow start for Temple. They are the ceiling of a two-back rotation running into the best unit in this game, and they leave Temple without the early-down currency it used to stay on schedule last week.

The cost to Temple is not measured in rushing yards. Penn State also holds the short-yardage and big-play edges, so Temple's third downs arrive long and its fourth-and-shorts stop being free downs. An offense stuck behind the sticks hands Penn State extra possessions while shortening its own, which is how a projected 36-20 turns into something considerably worse for Temple.

The one head-to-head on file was a seven-point game

These programs met in 2016 at Penn State, and Temple lost 34-27. That is direct evidence about Penn State and Temple rather than about the overmatched opponents each just beat, and a seven-point result argues against a three-touchdown number. It is also a 2016 roster on both sidelines, which is why that scoreline widens the range of outcomes here without setting the center of it.

The recent bodies of work sit closer than 23.5 suggests. Penn State went 7-6 last season at 31.0 points a game, which is not the profile of a team that buries opponents by three scores, and Temple's 5-7 at 27.8 was not a broken offense. What widens Saturday is roster talent and these specific unit matchups, not a season Penn State ran away with.

◄TemplefavorsPenn State►

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averagePenn State +14

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradePenn State +9

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonTemple +5

Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isPenn State +4

Transfer portalnet proven talent gained vs lost in transfers — it raises or lowers a roster's projected strengthTemple +3

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Penn State are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

GRIDPEX.COM

Last week separated them at the drive level

Penn State scored on 58.3% of 12 drives against Marshall at 41.8 yards a possession, went three-and-out on 16.7%, and allowed nothing. Temple scored on 40.0% of 10 drives against Rhode Island at 35.2 yards a possession and stalled in three plays on 30.0%. Both wins came at home against the soft end of the schedule, and the drive rates still point where the preseason baseline already pointed.

Temple's 30.0% three-and-out rate is the number that should worry Temple most. An offense stalling that often against an FCS opponent is one that needs its run game to function, and Saturday is the week Smith and Mason are least likely to get going. A 44% chance of a 20-point margin for one side opens through exactly that door, in the first quarter rather than the fourth.

If Temple scores, it scores through the air

Peter Clarke projects 18 to 56 receiving yards with a 37% chance of a touchdown, and Colin Chase 14 to 44 with a 25% chance. Both work against a Penn State pass defense ranked 40th of 185, which is good rather than the outlier its 4th-ranked run defense is. That relative softness is the seam, and Temple's realistic points come from finding it before the script turns.

Sequencing decides whether Clarke and Chase reach those bands. Their projections hold up on early downs, when Penn State still has to honor a handoff, and thin out once Temple is throwing on second-and-long by script rather than by choice. A coverage ranked 40th of 185 plays considerably better when it knows the down is a passing down, and Clarke's 37% touchdown chance erodes first.

Andrew Rappleyea projects 16 to 34 receiving yards with a 34% touchdown chance and Koby Howard 22 to 37, which is what Penn State's counter looks like when Temple crowds the run. Neither is a volume target here, and Penn State does not need one. The explosive passing edge stretches Temple's coverage vertically, and one completion behind it converts a stalled Penn State possession into points.

Temple's honest path is the cover, not the upset

Temple's keep-it-close criteria are the more achievable set: control the clock, break even on giveaways, and make Penn State build the margin from long fields. Temple does not have to solve a run defense ranked 4th of 185. Temple has to stop returning the ball after three plays, because that 30.0% rate from last week is the mechanism that stacks short fields for a better offense.

That is a narrower path than the 2016 scoreline implies. Our projection gives a one-score finish about a 1-in-4 chance here, and the under sits at 31%, so the likeliest shape is a game with points in it that Penn State controls from the second quarter on. Temple inside a possession late would be something Penn State allowed rather than something Temple engineered.

What has to happen

Penn State puts this away by making Smith and Mason irrelevant before halftime and then taking the explosive-pass edge downfield instead of trading field goals. Penn State scored on 58.3% of its drives against Marshall, and the 44% chance of a 20-point margin lives on repeating something near that conversion rate, not on out-gaining Temple between the 20s.

Temple stays inside the number by getting Clarke and Chase the ball on first and second down, staying out of obvious passing situations, and treating every possession as one it cannot afford to end in three plays. Do that and 23.5 is a lot of points to give away. Miss early against a Penn State offense converting 58.3% of its drives and Temple loses the margin before halftime.