Albertsons StadiumUSA Net
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BOIS 1594
MEM 1540
Projected spread
BOIS -0.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
53% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
53%
BOIS (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BOIS Elo 1594, MEM Elo 1540) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -0.9 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMEM 47% · BOIS 53%
Pick: BOIS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MEM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBOIS
Offense
0.26
PPA / play
0.2045%
Success rate
42%1.33
Key matchups · Pro
- MEM pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge MEM.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. MEM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. MEM pass defense (0.37 allowed) — edge MEM.
FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. Boise State?
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. Boise State?
The model projects Boise State by 0.9.
What time is Memphis vs. Boise State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM on USA Net, at Albertsons Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Boise State at 53% to win, projecting Boise State by 0.9.