Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BOIS Elo 1594, MEM Elo 1540) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -0.9 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: BOIS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 53% win probability.
The model projects Boise State by 0.9.
Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM on USA Net, at Albertsons Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Boise State at 53% to win, projecting Boise State by 0.9.
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →