Memphis vs Boise State Prediction, Picks & Odds — Sep 12, 2026

Two seasons ago in Memphis, the Tigers took this fixture 35-32, and the unit grades say that was earned rather than stolen: Memphis holds the edge in the run game, in explosive passing, and in overall offensive efficiency. Boise State is favored anyway, projected 38-24, and the reason sits inside two yards. Boise State's short-yardage and goal-line power is the widest edge on the board at plus 1.84, and it converts field position into seven points where Memphis settles for three.

0%

-38

0%

-32

1%

-24

3%

-18

6%

-10

9%

-4

13%

+4

16%

+10

16%

+18

14%

+24

10%

+32

6%

+38

3%

+46

Memphis winsBoise State wins

Market: Boise State −8Projected: Boise State by 14 (82%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Boise State, the more likely Boise State wins.

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The margin gets built two yards at a time

Dylan Riley projects for 49 to 138 rushing yards with a 56 percent chance of reaching the end zone, and Sire Gaines 44 to 91 with a 49 percent chance. Neither needs a long run to matter; Boise State's edge lives on third-and-two and first-and-goal, where the unit grades give Memphis no counter. Memphis has allowed 22.5 points a game through two wins, and short yardage is the down-and-distance where that figure gets tested rather than confirmed.

Boise State only cashes that edge if its drives live long enough to reach short yardage. At Oregon the Broncos went three-and-out on 53.8 percent of 13 drives and averaged 25.3 yards per possession, a team built for the goal line that rarely got near it. Maddux Madsen carries an 83 percent chance of a touchdown pass, and Boise State needs those throws to move the offense into the range where Riley and Gaines finish drives.

Memphis arrives from the opposite kind of afternoon, handling Arkansas State 42-24 while scoring on half of its 12 drives at 42.9 yards apiece. Two games sit against a full preseason baseline, the baseline still carries the projection, and the recent form belongs to Memphis. Boise State's 27-34 loss came at Oregon, a stiffer test than Arkansas State, which is why an 0-1 record moves this number toward Memphis less than the two scoreboards suggest.

◄MemphisfavorsBoise State►

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonBoise State +11

Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isBoise State +5

Transfer portalnet proven talent gained vs lost in transfers — it raises or lowers a roster's projected strengthMemphis +4

In-season formschedule-adjusted results so far this seasonMemphis +3

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageBoise State +1

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeMemphis +1

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Boise State are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

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Boise State's skill group has a past; Memphis's does not

Maddux Madsen threw in 11 games last season and projects for 167 to 290 passing yards, the most grounded projection on either side. Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines each played 14 games, Matt Wagner 13. Boise State is asking the same people who produced last November to produce Saturday, which is why its projections cluster where Memphis's fan out across a hundred yards of possible afternoons.

Marcus Stokes projects for 154 to 290 passing yards with a 39 percent touchdown chance off a single game of record, and Jemyri Davis, Braylon Burnside and Tychaun Chapman all carry the same wide bands. Memphis's range of outcomes is genuinely fatter in both directions: the Tigers put up 42 last week, and nothing on the record rules out either end of Stokes's range in Boise.

Memphis's secondary is what can flatten this

Madsen throws into a pass defense ranked 47th of 185 by what it allows, and the passing matchup at minus 1.57 is the one unit edge that belongs to Memphis outright. Ben Ford, 26 to 74 receiving yards with a 54 percent touchdown chance, and Quinton Brown, 16 to 48, work that same coverage. If Memphis holds up there, the power run becomes Boise State's whole offense, and 38 points is a lot to grind out two yards at a time.

Going the other way, Jaylin Carter runs at a defense ranked 121st of 185 against the run and projects for 56 to 138 yards, with Manny Covey adding 27 to 65 behind him. Jemyri Davis, 31 to 93 receiving, is the vertical piece against a Boise State group that surrendered 34 points at Oregon. Memphis does not need Stokes to be sharp if Carter reaches the upper half of that band.

What has to break for Memphis

◄MemphisfavorsBoise State►

Short-yardage / powerBoise State offense vs Memphis defenseBoise State — big edge

Passing gameBoise State offense vs Memphis defenseMemphis — big edge

Run gameMemphis offense vs Boise State defense, watch Jaylin CarterMemphis — big edge

Explosive passingMemphis offense vs Boise State defense, watch Jemyri DavisMemphis — clear edge

Overall efficiencyMemphis offense vs Boise State defenseMemphis — clear edge

Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Boise State are battles it should win; toward Memphis are ones Memphis wins.

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The Tigers' honest path is the 2023 path: stay on schedule, keep Boise State off third-and-short, and make Madsen win it against the better secondary. Memphis scored on half its drives last week and owns the field-level edges everywhere the chains are longer than two yards, including overall efficiency at plus 1.32. The lane is still narrow. Memphis is an 18 percent side, and a one-score finish sits at 28 percent.

Boise State needs its drives to survive first and second down; a 53.8 percent three-and-out rate never puts Riley and Gaines on the field in short yardage. Memphis needs Carter at the top of his 56 to 138 range and Davis to hit something over the top before the goal-line math buries the Tigers. There is a 40 percent chance the margin clears 20 points, and Boise State's 34 points allowed at Oregon says either side could be on the wrong end of it.