Marcus Stokes produced seven of Memphis's twelve explosive plays
The real story of Memphis's win, in the numbers that matter.
Memphis (1-0) takes down Arkansas State, 42-24 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Memphis was the steadier side of an 18-point win. Jaylin Carter ran 19 times for 183 yards and four scores and caught one pass for 18 yards.
Memphis ran on 55% of plays on 1st down all season; in this game, 78% (n=32 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
The turnover battle was the game
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = AS ahead, below = MEMP ahead.
Memphis won the turnover battle 2-4, chiefly Dylan Smith (2 INTs, 3 tackles), Ahmere Foster (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) and Zach Ruffin (1 TFL, 1 INT, 4.5 tackles). Memphis scored on 50% of its drives to Arkansas State's 33%, chiefly Jaylin Carter (24 pts), Marcus Stokes (12 pts) and Jermane Hayes (6 pts). That's what carried Memphis.
How the two sides actually played on the night.
The names on it
Jaylin Carter ran 19 times for 183 yards and four scores and caught one pass for 18 yards — two of them from inside the 20 and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Marcus Stokes threw for 188 yards on 15 attempts with two touchdowns and ran six times for 20 yards, with that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Manny Covey ran 15 times for 103 yards. For Arkansas State, Kenyon Clay ran 13 times for 50 yards and one score and caught two passes for 85 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Trey Owens threw for 325 yards on 30 attempts with one touchdown and ran seven times for 33 yards, including three third-down conversions and a hand in 12 plays of 15 yards or more. Hunter Summers caught five passes for 98 yards, including a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Dylan Smith was the disruptive one for Memphis: 2 INTs, 3 tackles.
Three plays
Most of the movement came on three plays. Trey Owens's 75-yard throw to Kenyon Clay for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q2 03:26. Then Trey Owens's dropback that came up short on 2nd-and-10 at Q3 07:30. Later, Jaylin Carter's 74-yard run for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q3 03:25.
The order of events
Arkansas State struck first, Memphis led 21-17 at the half and got the final points on a late touchdown by Jaylin Carter.
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep, all for Memphis: Dylan Smith (2 INTs, 3 tackles), Ahmere Foster (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) and J'Mond Tapp (1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 2.5 tackles). 4 of Memphis's 4 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 59% it had averaged over the previous 10 seasons.
How it graded
The closing line had Memphis -10.5. Memphis covered. The total was 52.5; the teams combined for 66, an over. Jaylin Carter accounted for 24 of Memphis's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Nothing fluky here — Memphis earned it, and Arkansas State knows where it slipped. Kenyon Clay was responsible for 12 of Arkansas State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Discussion
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