Arkansas State vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsMEM
- Q4 3:31MEMJaylin Carter 24 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)24–42
- Q3 3:25MEMJaylin Carter 74 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)24–35
- Q3 4:12ARSTTimothy Carter 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)24–28
- Q3 12:19MEMJaylin Carter 13 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:40MEMJermane Hayes 31 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)17–21
- Q2 3:26ARSTKenyon Clay 75 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)17–14
- Q2 3:37MEMAidan O'Callaghan 7 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:42ARSTKenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:02MEMJaylin Carter 2 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)3–7
- Q1 1:44ARSTClune Van Andel 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 4.4
The real story of Memphis's win, in the numbers that matter.
Memphis (1-0) takes down Arkansas State, 42-24 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Memphis was the steadier side of an 18-point win. Jaylin Carter ran 19 times for 183 yards and four scores and caught one pass for 18 yards.
- PassTrey Owens 21/30, 325 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushKenyon Clay 13 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Summers 5 REC, 98 YDS
- PassMarcus Stokes 12/15, 188 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJaylin Carter 19 CAR, 183 YDS, 4 TD
- RecBrady Kluse 1 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:15MEM +37%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM47 (#23 R.Stevens III)
- Q4 3:21ARST +30%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU35, for 20 yards to the ASU45 (#25 J.Clayton), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 3:26ARST +20%
Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #5 K.Clay caught at ASU37, for 75 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 8:13MEM +17%
PENALTY MEM False Start (#13 J.Davis) 5 yards from MEM33 to MEM28. NO PLAY
- Q2 0:40MEM +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep right to #11 J.Hayes caught at ASU00, for 31 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:23ARST +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #2 C.Cobb thrown to MEM45
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Memphis?
Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| ARST | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 434 | Total yards | 523 |
| 325 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 335 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/30 | Comp/Att | 12/15 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 12.5 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-37 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 30:33 | Possession | 29:27 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:36 MEM punt on 4th & 1 at MEM 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.77 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:31MEMJaylin Carter 24 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)24–42
- Q3 3:25MEMJaylin Carter 74 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)24–35
- Q3 4:12ARSTTimothy Carter 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)24–28
- Q3 12:19MEMJaylin Carter 13 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)17–28
- Q2 0:40MEMJermane Hayes 31 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)17–21
- Q2 3:26ARSTKenyon Clay 75 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)17–14
- Q2 3:37MEMAidan O'Callaghan 7 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:42ARSTKenyon Clay 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:02MEMJaylin Carter 2 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)3–7
- Q1 1:44ARSTClune Van Andel 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1541, ARST Elo 1378 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -17.2 (86% to win) — 6.7 points clear of MEM's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 20–8–3 · Memphis has won 5 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| ARST | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.2 (#124) | CORE overall | +10.4 (#36) |
| -3 / +10 | offense / defense | +9 / -1 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 3.82 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Marcus Stokes produced seven of Memphis's twelve explosive plays
The real story of Memphis's win, in the numbers that matter.
Memphis ran on 55% of plays on 1st down all season; in this game, 78% (n=32 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
The turnover battle was the game
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = AS ahead, below = MEMP ahead.
Memphis won the turnover battle 2-4, chiefly Dylan Smith (2 INTs, 3 tackles), Ahmere Foster (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) and Zach Ruffin (1 TFL, 1 INT, 4.5 tackles). Memphis scored on 50% of its drives to Arkansas State's 33%, chiefly Jaylin Carter (24 pts), Marcus Stokes (12 pts) and Jermane Hayes (6 pts). That's what carried Memphis.
The names on it
Jaylin Carter ran 19 times for 183 yards and four scores and caught one pass for 18 yards — two of them from inside the 20 and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Marcus Stokes threw for 188 yards on 15 attempts with two touchdowns and ran six times for 20 yards, with that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Manny Covey ran 15 times for 103 yards. For Arkansas State, Kenyon Clay ran 13 times for 50 yards and one score and caught two passes for 85 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Trey Owens threw for 325 yards on 30 attempts with one touchdown and ran seven times for 33 yards, including three third-down conversions and a hand in 12 plays of 15 yards or more. Hunter Summers caught five passes for 98 yards, including a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Dylan Smith was the disruptive one for Memphis: 2 INTs, 3 tackles.
Three plays
Most of the movement came on three plays. Trey Owens's 75-yard throw to Kenyon Clay for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q2 03:26. Then Trey Owens's dropback that came up short on 2nd-and-10 at Q3 07:30. Later, Jaylin Carter's 74-yard run for a touchdown on 1st-and-10 at Q3 03:25.
The order of events
Arkansas State struck first, Memphis led 21-17 at the half and got the final points on a late touchdown by Jaylin Carter.
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep, all for Memphis: Dylan Smith (2 INTs, 3 tackles), Ahmere Foster (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) and J'Mond Tapp (1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 2.5 tackles). 4 of Memphis's 4 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 59% it had averaged over the previous 10 seasons.
How it graded
The closing line had Memphis -10.5. Memphis covered. The total was 52.5; the teams combined for 66, an over. Jaylin Carter accounted for 24 of Memphis's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Nothing fluky here — Memphis earned it, and Arkansas State knows where it slipped. Kenyon Clay was responsible for 12 of Arkansas State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →