Fordham vs. UAlbany: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Fordham

0013

UAlbany

▸0034

Final

Bob Ford Field

	1	2	3	4	T
FORD	3	3	7	0	13
UALB	7	14	3	10	34

FORDTeam statsUALB

235Total yards399

198Pass253

37Rush146

16First downs23

2-123rd down9-16

1Turnovers0

25:33Possession34:27

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:14UALBJohn Opalko 26 Yd Field Goal 13–34
• Q4 13:23UALBBrevin Easton 30 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)13–31
• Q3 2:20UALBJohn Opalko 21 Yd Field Goal 13–24
• Q3 11:45FORDCole Thornton 24 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Brandon Peskin Kick)13–21
• Q2 0:41UALBRoy Alexander 18 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)6–21
• Q2 1:31UALBGriffin Woodell 8 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)6–14
• Q2 13:49FORDBrandon Peskin 26 Yd Field Goal 6–7
• Q1 1:16FORDBrandon Peskin 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 5:30UALBRoy Alexander 6 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UALB −4.5

Against the number

UALB covered

line UALB −4.5

What the numbers say

• FORD played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UALB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UALB 100%50%FORD 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UALB (top)FORD (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UALB 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UALB −4.5

Closing total

59.0

Model line

—

Actual result

FORD 13 – 34 UALB

Leaders

Fordham

• PassCJ Montes 18/31, 198 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJulius Loughridge 12 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecMJ Wright 6 REC, 61 YDS

UAlbany

• PassReese Poffenbarger 23/40, 253 YDS, 4 TD
• RushNate Larkins 12 CAR, 69 YDS
• RecRoy Alexander 6 REC, 58 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

6.7sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

134

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UALB up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,141 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

UALB went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WIowa vs Utah State24-14WDelaware vs Stony Brook37-13WTexas State vs Baylor42-31WKentucky vs Eastern Kentucky28-17WSouthern Illinois vs Northern Illinois14-11

Fourth downs

18 calls

UALB gave up 1.9 points to the model on fourth down.FORD 7/8 · UALB 3/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Fordham vs. UAlbany?

Fordham 13, UAlbany 34.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UALB) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

FORD

UALB

44%

Success rate

39%

-0.04

EPA / pass

0.26

0.09

EPA / rush

0.15

47%

Early-down success

36%

45%

Pass success

40%

44%

Rush success

39%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

9%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

64%

Pass rate

56%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.7

FORD

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

UALB

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

FORD		UALB
235	Total yards	399
198	Passing yards	253
37	Rushing yards	146
16	First downs	23
2-12	3rd down	9-16
1-2	4th down	0-1
18/31	Comp/Att	23/40
6.4	Yards per pass	6.3
1.2	Yards per rush	4.9
1	Turnovers	0
9-60	Penalties	7-60
25:33	Possession	34:27

Fourth downs

18 calls

FORD

7/8 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

UALB

3/7 with the model

−1.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 10:14 UALB punt on 4th & 1 at UALB 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

FORD 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →UALB 6/12 scoring drives

UALBTD6 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q0

UALBPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

FORDPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 18Q1

UALBTD12 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

FORDFG10 pl, 58 yds· own 30Q1

UALBPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q1

FORDFG5 pl, 44 yds· own 47Q1

UALBDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 47Q2

FORDPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 32Q2

UALBTD12 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

FORDFUM3 pl, 3 yds· own 28Q2

UALBTD3 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q2

FORDEND2 pl, -4 yds· own 22Q2

FORDTD9 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

UALBPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 19Q3

FORDPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 38Q3

UALBFG10 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q3

FORDUncateg5 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

FORDDOWNS8 pl, 49 yds· own 27Q4

UALBFG9 pl, 67 yds· own 24Q4

FORDPUNT7 pl, 5 yds· own 10Q4

UALBPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 38Q4

FORDPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4

UALBEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 27Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:14UALBJohn Opalko 26 Yd Field Goal 13–34
• Q4 13:23UALBBrevin Easton 30 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)13–31
• Q3 2:20UALBJohn Opalko 21 Yd Field Goal 13–24
• Q3 11:45FORDCole Thornton 24 Yd pass from CJ Montes (Brandon Peskin Kick)13–21
• Q2 0:41UALBRoy Alexander 18 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)6–21
• Q2 1:31UALBGriffin Woodell 8 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)6–14
• Q2 13:49FORDBrandon Peskin 26 Yd Field Goal 6–7
• Q1 1:16FORDBrandon Peskin 30 Yd Field Goal 3–7
• Q1 5:30UALBRoy Alexander 6 Yd pass from Reese Poffenbarger (John Opalko Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →