Southern vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Southern
Houston1-0
▸Final
TV ESPN+TDECU StadiumRain Shower · 92°F
SOUTTeam statsHOU
121Total yards591
127Pass203
-6Rush388
4First downs34
1-133rd down8-8
3Turnovers0
21:42Possession38:18
- Q4 5:56HOULuke Carney 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)6–77
- Q3 4:38SOUTWydell Clark Jr. 79 Yd pass from Wyatt McCauley (Christopher McKenna PAT blocked)6–70
- Q3 4:57HOUJohn Hebert 7 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–70
- Q3 9:39HOUDJ Butler 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–63
- Q3 13:43HOUKeisean Henderson 54 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–56
- Q2 1:36HOUJohn Hebert 20 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–49
- Q2 6:10HOUKoby Young 7 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–42
- Q2 10:57HOUKoby Young 43 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–35
- Q1 0:28HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:11HOUMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:52HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:59HOUPatrick Overmyer 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Model line
HOU −47.4
market HOU −52
Against the number
HOU covered
line HOU −52
What the numbers say
- SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 3.0
- HOU started drives roughly 26 yards closer than SOUT — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 49 vs own 23
- SOUT kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. 1.0 pts per trip vs 6.3
HOU favored ↑50%SOUT favored ↓
GridpexHOU 100% ESPN HOU 100%
Closing line
HOU −52
Closing total
62.0
Model line
HOU −47.4
Actual result
SOUT 6 – 77 HOU
DraftKings, liveHOU −51.50.5 toward SOUTtotal 61.5
Southern
- PassWyatt McCauley 2/3, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RushArmariyan Asberry 3 CAR, 6 YDS
- RecWydell Clark Jr. 1 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
Houston
- PassConner Weigman 9/12, 120 YDS, 3 TD
- RushZane Smith 10 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecKoby Young 3 REC, 54 YDS, 2 TD
32.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
109
Points / snap
0.76
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern vs. Houston?
Southern 6, Houston 77.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
SOUT
HOU
0.22
EPA / play
0.40
0.18
EPA / pass
0.44
0.25
EPA / rush
0.28
17%
Success rate
66%
0.21
Explosiveness
0.47
1.0
Pts / scoring opp
6.3
6
Scoring opps
12
23
Avg start (own yd)
49
Momentum — net EPA by quarter
Q1: HOU +4.3Q2: SOUT +2.4Q3: HOU +5.6Q4: HOU +4.4
SOUT
HOU
21%
Early-down success
72%
26%
Pass success
71%
5%
Rush success
78%
5%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
17%
45%
Stuffed rush rate
2%
54%
Pass rate
32%
7.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
3.0
SOUT
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
43 scrimmage snaps
HOU
3.0 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
| SOUT | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Total yards | 591 |
| 127 | Passing yards | 203 |
| -6 | Rushing yards | 388 |
| 4 | First downs | 34 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 8-8 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/20 | Comp/Att | 15/19 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 10.7 |
| -0.3 | Yards per rush | 8.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-44 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 21:42 | Possession | 38:18 |
SOUT
6/7 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
HOU
0/0 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q1 12:53 SOUT punt on 4th & 2 at SOUT 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
- HOUEnd of Game7 plays · 53 yds · from HOU 45 · Q4 4:27+3.1 EPA
- SOUTPunt3 plays · -5 yds · from SOUT 35 · Q4 5:56−1.3 EPA
- HOUTouchdown11 plays · 75 yds · from HOU 35 · Q3 4:38+3.4 EPA
- SOUTTouchdown1 plays · 79 yds · from SOUT 35 · Q3 4:52
- HOUTouchdown5 plays · 52 yds · from HOU 48 · Q3 7:21+1.5 EPA
- SOUTPunt3 plays · 0 yds · from SOUT 35 · Q3 9:38+3.4 EPA
- HOUTouchdown5 plays · 46 yds · from SOUT 46 · Q3 12:07+1.1 EPA
- SOUTPunt3 plays · 2 yds · from SOUT 35 · Q3 13:43−1.1 EPA
- HOUTouchdown3 plays · 75 yds · from HOU 35 · Q3 15:00+1.9 EPA
- SOUTEnd of Half3 plays · 0 yds · from SOUT 35 · Q2 1:36−0.8 EPA
- HOUTouchdown5 plays · 72 yds · from HOU 28 · Q2 3:57+4.4 EPA
- SOUTPunt3 plays · 4 yds · from SOUT 35 · Q2 6:10−1.1 EPA
- HOUTouchdown3 plays · 25 yds · from SOUT 25 · Q2 6:58+0.5 EPA
- SOUTInterception6 plays · 14 yds · from SOUT 35 · Q2 10:52+8.3 EPA
- Q4 5:56HOULuke Carney 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)6–77
- Q3 4:38SOUTWydell Clark Jr. 79 Yd pass from Wyatt McCauley (Christopher McKenna PAT blocked)6–70
- Q3 4:57HOUJohn Hebert 7 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–70
- Q3 9:39HOUDJ Butler 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–63
- Q3 13:43HOUKeisean Henderson 54 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–56
- Q2 1:36HOUJohn Hebert 20 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–49
- Q2 6:10HOUKoby Young 7 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–42
- Q2 10:57HOUKoby Young 43 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–35
- Q1 0:28HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:11HOUMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:52HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:59HOUPatrick Overmyer 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtProjected spread
HOU -47.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
HOU
100% to win
Market spread
HOU -52
sportsbook line
Model vs market
SOUT
4.6 pts apart
Win prob: model / mkt
100%
HOU (no market)
Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -47.4 (100% to win) — 4.6 points clear of SOUT's market line of -52. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →