Gridpex Model Prediction
Availability-Adjusted Projection
Availability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Stacy Sneed (RB)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: HOU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
FAQ
Who will win Southern Jaguars vs. Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 58% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Southern Jaguars vs. Houston?
The model projects Houston by 2.9.
What time is Southern Jaguars vs. Houston and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM on ESPN+, at TDECU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Houston at 58% to win, projecting Houston by 2.9.