Georgia State vs. Kennesaw State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsKENN
- Q4 1:56KENNJamari Harrold 3 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–17
- Q4 9:15GASTSamer Layous 43 Yd Field Goal 31–11
- Q3 0:53KENNRickie Collins 12 Yd Run (Rickie Collins Pass to Brayden Munroe for Two-Point Conversion)28–11
- Q3 4:42GASTDennis Murray Jr. 12 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)28–3
- Q2 0:40GASTLanear McCrary Jr. 1 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)21–3
- Q2 12:02GASTCameran Brown 18 Yd Run (Ayden Pereira Pass to Wesley Campbell VI for Two-Point Conversion)14–3
- Q1 1:28GASTSamer Layous 27 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 6:28KENNDaniel Kinney 29 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:18GASTSamer Layous 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST won this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against KENN. +0.91 vs +0.38 EPA/play
- GAST started drives roughly 11 yards closer than KENN — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 33 vs own 22
Kennesaw State's offense is at its weakest in short yardage, and short yardage is the one place Georgia State's defense is genuinely good.
Kennesaw State projects to 33-24, and the projection gives it a 73% chance of winning, almost all of that built on a 10-4 season rather than on anything either team did in Week 1. The most lopsided unit matchup on the field belongs to the underdog: Georgia State's defense against Kennesaw State's short-yardage and power game, a gap of nearly two standard deviations. Kennesaw State is the better team everywhere except the down and distance where it wants to finish drives.
- PassCameran Brown 16/23, 253 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLanear McCrary Jr. 19 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyle Washington 2 REC, 59 YDS
- PassRickie Collins 22/35, 260 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRickie Collins 10 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Rogers 3 REC, 74 YDS
- Q2 12:02GAST +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown rush middle for 18 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #6 W.Campbell VI pass attempt Successful
- Q2 0:40GAST +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 L.McCrary Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:28GAST +7%
#39 S.Layous field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q1 9:18GAST +7%
#39 S.Layous field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD
- Q1 6:28KENN +7%
#89 D.Kinney field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
- Q3 0:53KENN +6%
Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush left for 12 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #11 B.Munroe pass attempt Successful
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Kennesaw State?
Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 483 | Total yards | 332 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 260 |
| 230 | Rushing yards | 72 |
| 23 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 37:47 | Possession | 22:13 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:47 KENN punt on 4th & 18 at GAST 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
- GASTEnd of Half3 plays · -6 yds · from GAST 35 · Q4 1:53−3.2 EPA
- KENNTouchdown10 plays · 72 yds · from KENN 28 · Q4 5:31+5.1 EPA
- GASTDowns4 plays · 9 yds · from KENN 37 · Q4 6:39−5.9 EPA
- KENNInterception2 plays · -4 yds · from KENN 18 · Q4 7:26−0.7 EPA
- GASTFumble1 plays · 10 yds · from KENN 28 · Q4 7:35−4.2 EPA
- KENNDowns4 plays · 6 yds · from KENN 35 · Q4 9:06+3.5 EPA
- GASTField Goal12 plays · 51 yds · from GAST 35 · Q3 0:53+2.2 EPA+5% WP
- KENNTouchdown3 plays · 65 yds · from KENN 35 · Q3 1:59+2.7 EPA+4% WP
- GASTInterception3 plays · 14 yds · from GAST 19 · Q3 3:44+1.0 EPA
- KENNPunt4 plays · 12 yds · from KENN 35 · Q3 4:34−1.3 EPA
- GASTTouchdown9 plays · 93 yds · from GAST 7 · Q3 9:47+6.8 EPA+9% WP
- KENNPunt10 plays · 40 yds · from KENN 35 · Q3 14:54−0.4 EPA−4% WP
- KENNEnd of Half5 plays · 20 yds · from KENN 35 · Q2 0:35+0.8 EPA−1% WP
- GASTTouchdown8 plays · 80 yds · from GAST 20 · Q2 4:38+9.3 EPA+22% WP
- Q4 1:56KENNJamari Harrold 3 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–17
- Q4 9:15GASTSamer Layous 43 Yd Field Goal 31–11
- Q3 0:53KENNRickie Collins 12 Yd Run (Rickie Collins Pass to Brayden Munroe for Two-Point Conversion)28–11
- Q3 4:42GASTDennis Murray Jr. 12 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)28–3
- Q2 0:40GASTLanear McCrary Jr. 1 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)21–3
- Q2 12:02GASTCameran Brown 18 Yd Run (Ayden Pereira Pass to Wesley Campbell VI for Two-Point Conversion)14–3
- Q1 1:28GASTSamer Layous 27 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 6:28KENNDaniel Kinney 29 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:18GASTSamer Layous 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENN Elo 1373, GAST Elo 1241 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENN -12.3 (79% to win) — 4.8 points clear of KENN's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GAST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 (#100) | CORE overall | -6.9 (#97) |
| -3 / +5 | offense / defense | -3 / +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Georgia State's front takes away Kennesaw State's Short yardage
Kennesaw State's offense is at its weakest in short yardage, and short yardage is the one place Georgia State's defense is genuinely good.
Georgia State wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Kennesaw State, the more likely Kennesaw State wins.
Atlanta 2018 is real evidence, and it is out of date
Georgia State won the last meeting 24-20 at home in 2018, which tells you more about these two programs than either opener does and is still seven years stale. What separates them now is what each just finished: Kennesaw State went 10-4 and averaged 26.7 points, Georgia State went 1-11 and averaged 19.8. That gap is why Kennesaw State grades nine points better, and no head-to-head that old outranks a season played end to end.
Returning production leans to Georgia State, the counterweight that keeps a 10-4 team's edge over a 1-11 team at nine points rather than something wider, and Kennesaw State adds the home side of a series it lost on the road in 2018. Continuity is the strongest thing Georgia State carries into Saturday, which means the 1-11 record is not a clean read on the group that lines up in Kennesaw.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Kennesaw State are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
By drive, the underdog was the better team last week
Georgia State scored on 75.0% of its 12 drives against North Carolina A&T and gained 46.9 yards per possession. Kennesaw State scored on 50.0% of its 14 against West Georgia at 36.0 yards a drive. Kennesaw State shut its opponent out, so the two afternoons are not apples to apples, but the freshest evidence on the table has Georgia State's offense finishing possessions at the higher rate.
Neither offense stalled: 16.7% three-and-outs for Georgia State, 14.3% for Kennesaw State. The projection still rests on the preseason baseline, and the baseline is where Kennesaw State's edge lives, so one Saturday against overmatched competition moves it only a little. The narrower takeaway is worth having anyway: Georgia State scored 59 in that opener and is not the 19.8-per-game offense that went 1-11.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Kennesaw State are battles it should win; toward Georgia State are ones Georgia State wins.
Georgia State gets squeezed at both ends of the throw game
Cameran Brown projects for 67 to 139 passing yards with a 65% chance of a touchdown against a Kennesaw State pass defense that ranks 3rd of 185 in what it allows. Grant Hollier, at 17 to 42 receiving yards and a 34% touchdown chance, is the largest receiving band Georgia State projects, with DJ Riles at 10 to 31 and Kyle Washington at 7 to 23 behind him. Georgia State cannot chase points through the air on bands that shallow.
Kennesaw State's defense also holds a 1.79-standard-deviation edge on Georgia State's offense in big plays, which closes the other escape route. An offense that averaged 19.8 points last season needs chunk gains to stay level with one that averaged 26.7, and chunk gains are the least available thing on this field. Georgia State's 59-point opener came against an opponent that could contest neither, and the projected 24 treats it accordingly.
Javon Rogers projects for 20 to 63 receiving yards, a modest headline number for a Kennesaw State passing game that would rather line up and grind. Grinding is the one thing Georgia State is built to take away, so the 33 points Kennesaw State projects have to come from somewhere other than third-and-2 conversions and goal-line pushes.
The best unit on the field belongs to the underdog
Georgia State held North Carolina A&T to 10 points, and the short-yardage edge is the larger claim. Third-and-2, fourth-and-1 and goal-line snaps are where Kennesaw State's offense sits furthest below what it faces, 1.86 standard deviations down. Drives that end in field goals rather than touchdowns are the mechanism that turns a nine-point separation into a one-score finish, and Georgia State's entire afternoon runs through it.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Georgia State's defense is below average, better than only 0% of FBS defenses.
Kennesaw State's points then have to come from distance, and the big-play edge says it can get them. But the projected 33 leans on explosives and field position rather than sustained possession, and Kennesaw State shut out West Georgia without either having to be reliable. If Georgia State takes away the power game and the explosives do not land, Kennesaw State finishes a long way under 33.
Ten points allowed tells you less about Georgia State than the unit matchup does, and the unit matchup does not depend on who was lined up across from it. That is the honest case for the underdog: a 1-11 team is getting 8.8 points on the road because the one thing it does best is the one thing Kennesaw State's offense does worst.
Georgia State's path is narrow and it is specific
The cover comes from one script: even turnovers and a low-event game, which appears in 47% of projected outcomes. Kennesaw State winning the giveaway battle by two or more appears in none of them, so the favorite's cushion has to be earned between the tackles rather than handed over. The projection covers Kennesaw State in barely half its outcomes, and Georgia State won 24-20 the last time these two met.
What each side has to do
Kennesaw State wins on distance rather than volume: take the explosive plays the matchup grants, accept field goals when third-and-short goes nowhere, and let a pass defense ranked 3rd of 185 hold Cameran Brown inside his 67-to-139 band. Georgia State needs the score in the 20s, an even turnover count, and the touchdown drive Brown's 65% chance implies, because 24 points does not beat 33.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →