Lindenwood vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LINDTeam statsMOST
- Q4 12:21LINDElijah Roy 32 Yd pass from Pops Battle (Will Graham Kick)14–48
- Q3 0:00MOSTHenry Belin IV 16 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)7–48
- Q3 4:07LINDDrew Krobath 15 Yd pass from Pops Battle (Will Graham Kick)7–41
- Q3 7:13MOSTRamone Green Jr. 1 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–41
- Q2 5:20MOSTBreezy Dubar 10 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–34
- Q2 10:01MOSTIsaiah Myers 72 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Stewart McDonald PAT failed)0–27
- Q2 11:21MOSTRamone Green Jr. 1 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:07MOSTConnor Lair 1 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:39MOSTIsaiah Myers 24 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MOST won this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against LIND. +0.43 vs -0.16 EPA/play
- LIND kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. 2.0 pts per trip vs 4.7
- PassPops Battle 8/20, 105 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushPops Battle 14 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecElijah Roy 4 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSkyler Locklear 17/20, 258 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRamone Green Jr. 12 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIsaiah Myers 5 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Lindenwood vs. Missouri State?
Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
| LIND | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 223 | Total yards | 584 |
| 105 | Passing yards | 320 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 264 |
| 11 | First downs | 27 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 8/20 | Comp/Att | 21/25 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 12.8 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-84 | Penalties | 11-90 |
| 25:50 | Possession | 34:10 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:43 LIND punt on 4th & 1 at LIND 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
- MOSTEnd of Game6 plays · -3 yds · from MOST 46 · Q4 2:42−0.8 EPA
- LINDPunt3 plays · 5 yds · from LIND 16 · Q4 1:42−0.7 EPA
- MOSTDowns12 plays · 53 yds · from MOST 35 · Q4 12:16−1.0 EPA
- LINDTouchdown6 plays · 75 yds · from LIND 35 · Q3 0:02+3.2 EPA
- MOSTTouchdown3 plays · 68 yds · from MOST 32 · Q3 0:37+3.0 EPA
- LINDFumble3 plays · 11 yds · from MOST 43 · Q3 1:59−2.2 EPA
- MOSTDowns6 plays · 29 yds · from MOST 35 · Q3 4:06+3.3 EPA
- LINDTouchdown8 plays · 65 yds · from LIND 35 · Q3 7:13+1.7 EPA
- MOSTTouchdown10 plays · 69 yds · from MOST 31 · Q3 11:34+7.5 EPA
- LINDPunt6 plays · 17 yds · from LIND 35 · Q3 15:00+2.7 EPA
- MOSTMissed FG7 plays · 14 yds · from LIND 39 · Q2 2:43−5.6 EPA
- LINDInterception5 plays · 2 yds · from LIND 35 · Q2 5:20−1.3 EPA
- MOSTTouchdown7 plays · 72 yds · from MOST 28 · Q2 8:33−4.1 EPA
- LINDPunt3 plays · 9 yds · from LIND 35 · Q2 10:01−0.7 EPA
- Q4 12:21LINDElijah Roy 32 Yd pass from Pops Battle (Will Graham Kick)14–48
- Q3 0:00MOSTHenry Belin IV 16 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)7–48
- Q3 4:07LINDDrew Krobath 15 Yd pass from Pops Battle (Will Graham Kick)7–41
- Q3 7:13MOSTRamone Green Jr. 1 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–41
- Q2 5:20MOSTBreezy Dubar 10 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–34
- Q2 10:01MOSTIsaiah Myers 72 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Stewart McDonald PAT failed)0–27
- Q2 11:21MOSTRamone Green Jr. 1 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:07MOSTConnor Lair 1 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:39MOSTIsaiah Myers 24 Yd Run (Stewart McDonald Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -29.9 (96% to win) — 12.9 points clear of MOST's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →