Georgia Southern vs. Clemson: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
GASO gets the ball to start the 2nd half
Last play(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass intercepted by #2 A.Hampton at GS24, End Of Play
GASOTeam statsCLEM
- Q2 0:01CLEMN. Hauser 38 yd FG GOOD7–16
- Q2 3:03GASOM. Johnson pass to A. Hollins for 42 yds, for a TD (T. Bryant KICK)7–13
- Q2 4:54CLEMN. Hauser 34 yd FG GOOD0–13
- Q2 14:57CLEMN. Hauser 20 yd FG GOOD0–10
- Q1 11:01CLEMC. Vizzina pass to T.J. Moore for 10 yds, for a TD (N. Hauser KICK)0–7
Our model, right now
What the numbers say
- CLEM is playing behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO is not facing the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 6.8
- CLEM is starting drives roughly 12 yards closer than GASO — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 38 vs own 25
- GASO is winning this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, is the story against CLEM. +0.17 vs -0.20 EPA/play
Net expected points for the offense — the opponent's next score already subtracted.
- Our model prices this game live at CLEM −16.3 (93% CLEM).
- Against the pregame line (CLEM −19.5), GASO covers in 61% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 47 vs the 54.5 line — the under hits 78%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- 3&7(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to GS24 broken up by #2 A.Hampton−0.21
- 2&7(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #0 A.Hollins thrown to GS40−0.46
- 1&10(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GS24 (#7 J.Alexander)−0.25
- 3&1(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GS21 (#6 J.Carter III; #7 J.Alexander), 1ST DOWN+0.44
- 2&10(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #0 A.Hollins caught at GS14, for 9 yards to the GS19 (#7 J.Alexander; #5 R.Hanafin)+0.37
- 1&10(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush right for 0 yards to the GS10 (#49 D.Mayo)−0.35
- PassMax Johnson 16/27, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDavid Mbadinga 2 CAR, 9 YDS
- RecAshton Hollins 3 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTait Reynolds 14/22, 172 YDS
- RushChris Johnson Jr. 5 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecT.J. Moore 7 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
Teams up 6 with 30 minutes left — like Clemson right now — went on to win 72% of the time across 2096 comparable historical situations.
- Bryant vs Long Island UniversityW 23–10
- Illinois State vs LindenwoodW 48–17
- Minnesota vs NevadaW 27–0
- William & Mary vs BryantW 22–12
- Alabama State vs Bethune-CookmanW 26–21
- Q1 11:01CLEM +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 C.Vizzina pass complete short middle to #1 T.Moore caught at GS00, for 10 yards to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:03GASO +5%
PENALTY CLEM Personal Foul (#95 A.Adams) 15 yards from GS35 to GS50. NO PLAY
FAQ
Who will win Georgia Southern vs. Clemson?
Gridpex's model favors Clemson with a 92% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia Southern vs. Clemson?
The model projects Clemson by 22.3.
What time is Georgia Southern vs. Clemson and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET on ACC Network | ACCNX, at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC).
| GASO | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 158 | Total yards | 304 |
| 148 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 10 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 8 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 18/30 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 0.7 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-67 | Penalties | 8-80 |
| 20:54 | Possession | 22:49 |
Net expected points for the offense — the opponent's next score already subtracted.
Costliest call
Q2 14:57 CLEM field goal on 4th & 2 at GASO 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
- GASODowns6 plays · 14 yds · from GASO 10 · Q3 3:51−0.5 EPA
- CLEMPunt5 plays · 46 yds · from CLEM 5 · Q3 5:55−0.9 EPA
- GASOPunt10 plays · 40 yds · from GASO 10 · Q3 11:57−0.3 EPA
- CLEMPunt6 plays · 14 yds · from CLEM 30 · Q3 14:02−1.2 EPA
- GASOPunt3 plays · 3 yds · from GASO 35 · Q3 15:00−1.1 EPA
- CLEMField Goal11 plays · 15 yds · from CLEM 35 · Q2 3:03+7.1 EPA−2% WP
- GASOTouchdown6 plays · 75 yds · from GASO 35 · Q2 4:54+2.8 EPA
- CLEMField Goal6 plays · 47 yds · from CLEM 38 · Q2 7:03+0.9 EPA+1% WP
- GASOPunt3 plays · 9 yds · from GASO 15 · Q2 8:18−0.4 EPA
- CLEMPunt4 plays · 13 yds · from CLEM 40 · Q2 8:46−1.7 EPA
- GASOPunt3 plays · 2 yds · from GASO 18 · Q2 11:19+3.4 EPA
- CLEMPunt4 plays · 13 yds · from CLEM 24 · Q2 13:15+0.8 EPA
- GASOPunt3 plays · 6 yds · from GASO 35 · Q2 14:57−1.0 EPA
- CLEMField Goal6 plays · 15 yds · from GASO 17 · Q1 2:36−0.3 EPA+2% WP
- 3&7(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to GS24 broken up by #2 A.Hampton−0.21
- 2&7(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #0 A.Hollins thrown to GS40−0.46
- 1&10(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GS24 (#7 J.Alexander)−0.25
- 3&1(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GS21 (#6 J.Carter III; #7 J.Alexander), 1ST DOWN+0.44
- 2&10(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #0 A.Hollins caught at GS14, for 9 yards to the GS19 (#7 J.Alexander; #5 R.Hanafin)+0.37
- 1&10(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush right for 0 yards to the GS10 (#49 D.Mayo)−0.35
- Q2 0:01CLEMN. Hauser 38 yd FG GOOD7–16
- Q2 3:03GASOM. Johnson pass to A. Hollins for 42 yds, for a TD (T. Bryant KICK)7–13
- Q2 4:54CLEMN. Hauser 34 yd FG GOOD0–13
- Q2 14:57CLEMN. Hauser 20 yd FG GOOD0–10
- Q1 11:01CLEMC. Vizzina pass to T.J. Moore for 10 yds, for a TD (N. Hauser KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 1541, GASO Elo 1376 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -22.3 (92% to win) — 2.8 points clear of CLEM's market line of -19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GASO | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.4 (#103) | CORE overall | -9.9 (#108) |
| -2 / +7 | offense / defense | -10 / -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →